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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

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GFS SAYS
 
Saw this at the other board, and it's pretty much crushed my hope of the last Euro run being right and Flo not coming through NC.

The storm needs to come to the Euro then cause so far the track is north of all the recent Euro runs and the Euro is performing worse than most the others....so far...also the storm appears to be moving more NW than anything right now though its tough to tell with the ugly eye but i imagine the separation to the Euro runs is just getting bigger...the FV3 has been very consistent its landfall point hasnt moved more than 10-20 miles run to run for the last 6-8 runs at least.....GFS doing very well so far with track verification...surprisingly enough....still gotta take the blend of the two and thats about where the NHC has it.....the models are doing a bit of back and forth the last day and that probably will continue but overall ILM to MHX is where this likely ends up....
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The NHC uses the TVCN for their forecast track its a consensus of the models.....below is the consensus track and verification so far....this is why the NHC has its cone and ath where it does....obviously as the models move around this will too but I doubt we see them move the landfall spot more than 50 miles either way at this point.....there landfall point will shift west 10-15 miles at 11am.....
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Nice observation there Kylo. EPS has been too far south all along just like the GEFS has been too far north and east. A track in the middle around Wilmington to Morehead City I would favor. Also something that hasn't been discussed yet but in systems where the steering currents break down I've noticed, along the NC coast at least, that storms like to "curve" along the coast if there isn't anything to push it inland. Ophelia was a good example of that a few years back. If the steering currents take awhile to push her inland she could easily just drift around the coast in ways that aren't well modeled right now. Something to watch out for as we get closer to landfall.
 
snowlover91 said:
NHC has been money with Florence. Their current track and landfall location is a great blend of the guidance and probably pretty close to what we see, give or take 30-50 miles in either direction due to any wobbles near landfall.
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Yep and actually if you look at the sat pic I posted in motion you could argue that on it's current track it will be just north of the next point but again any slight west wobble/jog will be spot on it...
 
FWIW the 12z NAM is coming in a little weaker and north with the ridging and a faster movement of Florence at hour 48. It is the NAM though so I'd take it with a grain of salt.
 
Something I have not seen mentioned is the threat of tornadoes with Flo coming in. Is that a possibility?
 
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