Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

[bud006]

A 999 mb over Athens, Ga. on Monday, Sept. 17?

I give up on the global models. Euro, you're drunk, go home.

GFS, you've been on an epic four-day bender. Go home, too.

Y'all call an Uber together.

--30--

 

[setxwx]

What do you mean by barrel of stream?

listen to some Black Sabbath and get back to him.

 

[Meteorologist1999]

Takeaway from Euro further shift south/west with a lot of the heavy stalling rains in South Carolina now.

 

[Brent]

Yeah if it turns offshore theres a bunch of possibilities

Still a long way to go on this one

0z euro landfall

 

[stormcentral]

00Z EURO Rainfall Accumulations

 

[Webberweather53]

0z EPS, note more members into SC vs NC this run. The idea touted yesterday that the ECMWF was overamping the ridge is becoming hogwash esp with 95L developing in the Gulf of Mexico and strengthening the flank of the high over the SE US thru -PV deposition.

 

[accu35]

0z EPS, note more members into SC vs NC this run. The idea touted yesterday that the ECMWF was overamping the ridge is becoming hogwash esp with 95L developing in the Gulf of Mexico and strengthening the flank of the high over the SE US thru -PV deposition.

View attachment 6162

Looks as if they turn west after landfall

 

[Meteorologist1999]

0z EPS, note more members into SC vs NC this run. The idea touted yesterday that the ECMWF was overamping the ridge is becoming hogwash esp with 95L developing in the Gulf of Mexico and strengthening the flank of the high over the SE US thru -PV deposition.

View attachment 6162

So is it possible the heavy rain amount shown in North Carolina could shift South Eric and affect us here in SC

 

[Brent]

0z EPS, note more members into SC vs NC this run. The idea touted yesterday that the ECMWF was overamping the ridge is becoming hogwash esp with 95L developing in the Gulf of Mexico and strengthening the flank of the high over the SE US thru -PV deposition.

wow that's pretty telling and makes it more legit that it has support

SC definitely isn't out of this one yet

 

[whatalife]

0z EPS, note more members into SC vs NC this run. The idea touted yesterday that the ECMWF was overamping the ridge is becoming hogwash esp with 95L developing in the Gulf of Mexico and strengthening the flank of the high over the SE US thru -PV deposition.

View attachment 6162

I have never felt the models have had a good handle on just how strong the ridge may be. The euro the past two nights continues to be worrisome for SC. Still a lot of possibilities out there.


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[Brent]

I have never felt the models have had a good handle on just how strong the ridge may be. The euro the past two nights continues to be worrisome for SC. Still a lot of possibilities out there.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I don't envy the NHC on this one... watches have to go up today... a turn 50 miles earlier could make a hundreds of miles difference

 

[accu35]

wow that's pretty telling and makes it more legit that it has support

SC definitely isn't out of this one yet

If this were the case, than GA would get some impacts from it in some sort of way

 

[accu35]

I don't envy the NHC on this one... watches have to go up today... a turn 50 miles earlier could make a hundreds of miles difference

Yeah, and especially when Flo is growing in size

 

[accu35]

You can see the left bend after landfall

 

[Brent]

You can see the left bend after landfall

What a mess

 

[accu35]

Look at that one to the left lol. Jeez!!

 

[Brent]

Look at that one to the left lol. Jeez!!

Joyce is that you?

 

[gawxnative]

I don't envy the NHC on this one... watches have to go up today... a turn 50 miles earlier could make a hundreds of miles difference

I'm thinking that the NHC will have to go "wide" with the watch products this morning. I think that would be the prudent thing to do at this time.

 

[Webberweather53]

Invest 95L definitely seems to be a culprit in the evolution of this SE US ridge west and north of Florence around day 3, notice even w/ a weaker Atlantic ridge, the flank of the high over the SE US intensified (likely due to excess outflow from this invest (which might become Joyce), hence the turn west into SC.

 

[stormcentral]

GOES East Satellite Image 4AM