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Pattern Magnificent March

The theta-e change across central NC this afternoon has been extremely impressive as a warm front lifts northward into Virginia, a 12-16C change in just 3 hours is nuts lol. This should set us up for a nice bout of elevated convection late this evening and into the overnight.
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Kylo said:
Euro was great, closed ULL.

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If you want to deliver accumulating snow to central NC after early March, this is exactly how you do it. Synoptically forced ascent underneath a deep cold-core ULL wherein snow can fall and accumulate at the surface w/ temperatures above freezing is usually what this setup entails as we saw this past week.
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Yay! More N.C. snow!:mad:
Can’t wait
 
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How many more of these stupid teases are left? I'm ready to get on with spring and be done with this bad spaghetti!
 
Here we go, we will have to keep an eye on further downstream convective development into KY, WV, VA, and NC later this evening.
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Mesoscale Discussion 0127
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Areas affected...Central and Southeast KY...Northeast TN...Extreme
Southwest VA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 171925Z - 172130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over central
KY this afternoon, spreading/developing east-southeastward into
adjacent parts of TN and VA. Large hail will be possible in the
stronger cells. A watch is likely in the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite loops show a corridor of increasing
cumulus development over north-central KY. This is in vicinity of a
weak surface low that will track southeastward across the discussion
area during the afternoon and early evening. Strong heating is
occurring in the warm sector of the low, resulting in substantial
heating and destabilization. Meanwhile, low-level moisture is
slowly returning to this area with dewpoints now in the 50s.

Present indications are that storms will initiate near the surface
low in the next 1-2 hours and spread southeastward across parts of
southeast KY and into northeast TN and western VA. Sufficient CAPE
and favorable effective shear/mid-level lapse rates will promote
rotating cells capable of large hail. Locally damaging winds may
also occur if storms can congeal and develop upscale several hours
from now.

..Hart/Guyer.. 03/17/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON 37988508 37748271 37038148 36108179 35868329 36528545
37158635 37698608 37988508
 
Same thing happened last year. February was warm and March was colder.
 
SEL0

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 10
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
430 PM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central and Eastern Kentucky
Far Western North Carolina
Northern and Eastern Tennessee
Far Western Virginia
Far Southern West Virginia

* Effective this Saturday afternoon from 430 PM until Midnight
EDT.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Clusters of storms including supercells will continue to
increase through late afternoon especially across central/eastern
Kentucky, with somewhat more isolated development expected southward
into Tennessee. Bouts of severe hail will be common with the most
intense storms, while damaging winds can also be expected,
especially if a semi-organized linear system evolves by early
evening toward the spine of the Appalachian Mountains.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles north and south of a line from 75 miles west of London
KY to 35 miles east northeast of Bristol TN. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 9...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
28030.

...Guyer
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0010.html
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RAH showed the storms getting here around 9 tonight and exiting by 4 am. Wonder if they will actually hold together.
 
Sure has been quiet today with a winter storm threat next week and a severe threat tonight.
 
Just had my first official thunderstorm of the year! Snow in 10 days!:weenie::weenie:
 
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