Stormsfury
Member
Can you expand that to SC?
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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
NWG_WX14
Member
EURO AI is wetter across much of NC. The coastal is slightly further west
I guess Brad P mentioned what I was describing in Thrashers post just below yours.
iGRXY
Member
wow
Member
QPF increases over the mesolow zone.
iGRXY
Member
Sweet Jesus the euro is as consistent with 10-12”+ as I’ve ever seen over me
packfan98
Moderator
Can you post it? It’s not on Weatherbell yet.
rburrel2
Member
We just need the euro to be right at 500mb and the hi-res models will jump on board when they get it right there too.(speaking for the upstate/coumbia/charlotte/ne Georgia.)
Catfish
Member
It’s going to be pretty crazy if this weekend’s snow in metro ATL ends up causing more problems than the ice storm from last weekend in that area.
BrickTamland
Member
If there was any doubt WRAL goes with whatever the Euro shows it shouldn't be now if you compare this with their forecast map.
BackThePack
Member
This west trend is going to break some hearts.
Crow
Member
TT hasn’t started running yet. Did the coastal get more involved in eastern NC or is that the deformation band?
rburrel2
Member
Euro, weathernext, gfs ai pretty much all on top of each other with the qpf footprint. But for some reason the hi-res/cam models are all over the place and none of them are really showing that solution. Pretty frustrating for now.
packfan98
Moderator
How so? You think it’s going to flip the coast to rain? The coastal being further west helps everyone Ii believe.
packfan98
Moderator
The Euro-AI once more disagreeing with its OP model, Who's gonna win that battle?
Mpirone12
Member
Has Euro AI or Euro performed better recently ?
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Wow, that’s the best Euro AI run in days, or maybe ever? For this storm, I mean. Meanwhile, the old Euro goes the wrong way for a lot of central NC.
Another episode of As The Models Turn…
Packsox03
Member
Interesting how model spread the last 2 storms has been larger 2 days out than 3. I could think it’s because that’s the transition zone between globals and the CAMs’ reliable range
WxBlue
Meteorologist
And also AI models being thrown into the mix.
packfan98
Moderator
Here’s the AIFS Ens. Best it’s looked today.
Packsox03
Member
Yeah that definitely plays a role. AI stuff hasn’t been around that long so we have zero idea about their biases and strengths and weaknesses. It’s getting pretty frustrating because the difference between 3 inches and 10 is very large
Makeitsnow
Member
This is 4 runs in a row of the euro showing more than 6 inches here. Even though technically it was a tiny decrease from the previous run, it looks more like noise as the low track was nearly identical. It's interesting that i don't see evidence of the snow band across ne ga that the other models are showing so i'm not sure what the deal is there. One thing seems certain, the upstate is in a great spot.
btw, for the upstate folks.
wow
Member
Euro Ensembles still ticking west
Tsappfrog20
Member
This was really good from Big Weather
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packfan98
Moderator
Big improvement so far on 18z eps. Looks to have bounced back from a drier 12z run.
iGRXY
Member
Increase over the western carolinas and CLT
packfan98
Moderator
Nice!
Packsox03
Member
Euro suite overview (central NC):
OP: disaster
AI: solid
EPS: very good
Really hoping for some convergence soon. Do not envy Kat Campbell or other pro mets here
OP: disaster
AI: solid
EPS: very good
Really hoping for some convergence soon. Do not envy Kat Campbell or other pro mets here
Eps would make everyone estatic with the ratios. From Jimmys house to Corolla
If we could get the system a little further west (as Wow pointed out in the eps ensemble above) it gives a little more room for the trough to get negative. This would help with the Atlantic low not being pushed east. And the moisture would explode from there.
wow
Member
.. Got about halfway back from yesterday's big 18z run. Can also see the northern edge drifting down with each run.
This starts in just over 24 hours and still a large spread among the models...I don't know whether Raleigh is getting 6-8" or 1-2", it seems like its either/or.
Group 1 (precip max south into South Carolina): Euro, GFS-AI, 3km, RGEM
Group 2 (precip max in NC): Euro-AI, GFS, 3km and ICON
Then in the middle is Google: Splits the NC/SC line. I think Google makes the most sense, happy middle.
Group 1 (precip max south into South Carolina): Euro, GFS-AI, 3km, RGEM
Group 2 (precip max in NC): Euro-AI, GFS, 3km and ICON
Then in the middle is Google: Splits the NC/SC line. I think Google makes the most sense, happy middle.
rburrel2
Member
Pretty big increase in qpf on the 18z ukmet for the upstate and central NC