packfan98
Moderator
Does the UKMET use the same initialization? It's been jumpy as well.
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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1
- Thread starter SD
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GSP just issued warnings for WNC.
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- Lebanon Township, Durham County NC
I cannot tell you how many times I’ve used ol I85 to get to Columbia
chuckhendo
Member
And 2010 was the largest since 1973 if I'm not mistaken. These sort of things are pretty rare around here. I'm still preparing for the models to start falling apart tomorrow and then by Saturday seeing everyone around us getting a foot of snow
Sctvman
Member
Think Ryan focuses on ATL because he has ties to the airlines
DustinWx
Moderator
Is there a chance a blizzard warning is issued for upstate or nc?
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For me, I think it’s close enough and not completely opposite it’s ensembles like the NAM and GFS
LovingGulfLows
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He lives in the Atlanta area according to his X profile.
Just east of you and I would be ecstatic over those totals! It’s been a long time. Now I hope Charlotte stays below 12” as I always keep my word!
Maybe at the outer banks.
My brothers in Christ, welcome to Minnesota 
I tend to doubt it simply because the forecast winds don’t match up with Blizzard criteria. Perhaps a strongly worded mention of wind and blowing/drifting snow will be included once a Winter Storm Warning get issued
GSP just issued warnings for along and West of I-26 locations to the east will be uprgaded shortly they just don't know the details yet due to the ULL. I know a guy that knows a guy. Lol
Brent9
Member
50-60% chance for over 8 inches, insane
packfan98
Moderator
12z Canadian ensembles sucked for many.
packfan98
Moderator
Updated expected snowfall.
Bigedd09
Member
Wow. NWS GSP bumped their totals up
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Last night it showed 35 mph gusts for 3+ hours, based off of the models! Gusts and/or sustained meets the criteria. I just didn’t see the 1/4 mile visibility being met but it could change too I guess!
Updated expected snowfall.
I wonder where the minimum will show up? I bet it will be a surprise. Ha ha!
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BrickTamland
Member
RAH continues to be bullish. They still like that area from Sanford through Raleigh up to Roanoke Rapids for even more snow possible.Updated expected snowfall.
I hate it for you but don’t at the same time! If we could all get 11.9” board wide it would be great! You have more opportunities than us flat landers is the reason for my comment!I wonder where the minimum will show up? I bet it will be a surprise. Ha ha!
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Your in good shape for at least a moderate event. I wouldn't sweat it. If I had a nickel for every time you out preformed the southern foothills.... Well you get the idea. Stay warm and safe my friend. Enjoy!I wonder where the minimum will show up? I bet it will be a surprise. Ha ha!
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packfan98
Moderator
15z SREF - Another model I have zero trust in, but I'll post it anyway.
12z EPS low positions at 60 & 66hrs, a group sw of the mean and op position. Still a fair amount of spread at day 2.5
based on history this is typically when we reach our qpf nadir before models bump things up some. atypical storm sure. but if we're going with history this is our bottom
Isn't this a better model to look at around 18hrs or so?15z SREF - Another model I have zero trust in, but I'll post it anyway.
I never in my life thought I’d see this from the nws for charlotte the day before a storm
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST
SUNDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 4 and
7 inches. Winds gusting as high as 55 mph.
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST
SUNDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 4 and
7 inches. Winds gusting as high as 55 mph.
mydoortotheworld
Member
Would like to see those individual members play out, particularly the ones more W, SW. probably equal better hits for ATL I would think if the energy tilts sooner and further SW
Kind of wild how different the SREFs are from a lot of other modeling, with the highest totals in E / NE NC / SE VA with comparatively little in SC and the CLT area. You'd think it's wrong and it probably is although I suppose climo would favor it to some extent (but climo is just climo and there are plenty of exceptions to it).15z SREF - Another model I have zero trust in, but I'll post it anyway.
WeatherNext should be out soon, right?
snowlover91
Member
Where do you get these large composites for the area? I’d love a link if you have one!Updated expected snowfall.
whish is which?
Stormsfury
Member
Someone asked a question about Charleston, SC having any back to back years with accumulating snowfall. I tried to keep criteria of at least an inch and was able to find an abridged most snow in one day (does not state the storm total if it was a multi day event). What I found was yes, it has happened in back to back years a small handful of times. 3 dating back since 1895.
1.5" 1/13/1912 (to compare with 1914/15)
2.2" 2/25/1914
1.7" 12/21/1915
Honorable Mention
1.0" 12/30/1917
0.5" 1/2/1918
Interesting just a few days spread but over two calendar years.
Starting a period from 1957 thru 1971, a trace or better fell every year.
0.5" 3/11/1960
0.2" 2/16/1963
0.8" 1/27/1966
1.3" 2/22/1968
2.0" 3/4/1969
From 1976 thru 1980, 5 years in a row accumulating snow but 1979-1980 had back to back years over an inch of accumulating snow. (The 1979 storm was also on top of a lot of freezing rain/sleet)
0.4" 1/17/1976
0.6" 1/31/1977
0.4" 2/9/1978
1.6" 2/18/1979
3.7" 12/27/1980
1.5" 1/13/1912 (to compare with 1914/15)
2.2" 2/25/1914
1.7" 12/21/1915
Honorable Mention
1.0" 12/30/1917
0.5" 1/2/1918
Interesting just a few days spread but over two calendar years.
Starting a period from 1957 thru 1971, a trace or better fell every year.
0.5" 3/11/1960
0.2" 2/16/1963
0.8" 1/27/1966
1.3" 2/22/1968
2.0" 3/4/1969
From 1976 thru 1980, 5 years in a row accumulating snow but 1979-1980 had back to back years over an inch of accumulating snow. (The 1979 storm was also on top of a lot of freezing rain/sleet)
0.4" 1/17/1976
0.6" 1/31/1977
0.4" 2/9/1978
1.6" 2/18/1979
3.7" 12/27/1980
WeatherNext2 has come in! Downloading/processing now 
Btownheel
Member
Agreed. And that’s why I tend to defer to the professional Mets that have deep experience with our climo and these setups around this time. Fishel’s thought that it will hug and bomb right off the coast due to Gulf Stream and ULL influence carries a lot of weight with me. That’s 40+ years of studying these storms and our climo talking. Tricky dynamics that the models can struggle to fully decipher.
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do think there will still be some virga early on for the western half of the carolinas but that shoooould get eaten up pretty quick with such a deeply forced column. this ain't just relying on isentropic lift this time over here
Staright from Hoarses Mouth. Key word here. Is near
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isn't that the warning for the mountains? I don't see a WS Warning issues for CLT yet
With the latest issuings, the entire states of NC and SC are under Winter Storm Watches and Warnings. I can't remember the last time that happened.
Just across these latest runs, we've seen the dreaded dry spot hone in on the Triangle, Roanoke Rapids, Wilmington... and I'm sure I'm missing some spots. It is truly a TBD/Find Out In Live Time!I wonder where the minimum will show up? I bet it will be a surprise. Ha ha!
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