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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1

rburrel2 said:
I'm not sure i've ever had a 9 inch Euro Kuchera in my back yard inside of 72hrs before. Maybe in 2014, but it busted badly if so.
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Sometimes and you know for a climatology stand point around the upstate to stick with the lower amounts and don’t get sucked to the pretty colors based on one model run. The strength of the TPV and how it interacts with several other pieces of energy emanating out of the west coast.
 
The bands in these big dogs are a blessing and a curse: if you get under a band, it likes to park itself over you and you can run up some incredible snow totals with these ratios. However, subsidence surrounds these bands and you get much less if you’re in one of the subsidence zones. A quarter inch of QPF is about 4 inches of snow or so in this situation
 
wxdaniel said:
Sometimes and you know for a climatology stand point around the upstate to stick with the lower amounts and don’t get sucked to the pretty colors based on one model run. The strength of the TPV and how it interacts with several other pieces of energy emanating out of the west coast.
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I'm expecting 3 inches. Anything more is a bonus. Anything less, and i'll be pretty bummed.
 
Webberweather53 said:
This is the best I can do for now as a general broad brush of things in the Carolinas.

I won't do specific snow totals until later tomorrow, but there will likely be some really big numbers on the map.

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Webb, we're long overdue. I hope this is the one that makes up for this horrid decade. And I thought Jan 90 to Feb 93 was bad!
 
I’ve had some big means before but they usually come in the form of tight contouring over my house which results in disappointment 100% of the time. This is a broad low temp storm with the absence of cutoff zones. So It feels like equal opportunity which is really nice for a change
 
Packsox03 said:
The bands in these big dogs are a blessing and a curse: if you get under a band, it likes to park itself over you and you can run up some incredible snow totals with these ratios. However, subsidence surrounds these bands and you get much less if you’re in one of the subsidence zones. A quarter inch of QPF is about 4 inches of snow or so in this situation
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Agree. The location of 700 FGEN and 850 FGEN bands will be huge, with the zone in between being a nasty subsidence zone. This is really reminding me of one of New Hampshire's high ratio fluffy snowstorms I tracked back in 2017 to 2019.
 
griteater said:
All the lows are closed and spinny - 850mb, 700mb, 500mb

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Ok so what are our real analogs for this one? I know March '80 was thrown around but it wasn't as strong as this on a 500mb level, only around 534. It started more as a conventional GOM low from a southern wave. This is a really deep one.
 
WxBlue said:
Agree. The location of 700 FGEN and 850 FGEN bands will be huge, with the zone in between being a nasty subsidence zone. This is really reminding me of one of New Hampshire's high ratio fluffy snowstorms I tracked back in 2017 to 2019.
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Exactly. Reminds me of the 2016 January event when I lived in MD. Got 30 inches. New England nor'easters are the best comp for this kind of setup and what central/eastern NC may experience if the phasing is right
 
We crashed the NWS website. Good job team!
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