Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1

[packfan98]

 

[wow]

I know everyone is mesmerized by the snow maps. I love seeing the cotton candy pink over me, lol. But we have a pretty good consensus on the highest impact areas. QPF totals are going to rise and fall based mostly on our ULL.. no overrunning, or GOM low to track. All about moisture transport as a low bombs off the SE coastline. Going to be some heavy snow bands as the coastal bombs out.. watching the 850mb low track will be important as well.

 

[Bigedd09]

Now that is absolute best case scenario


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[NBAcentel]

We absolutely have to stop this bleeding here in about 30 minutes....

View attachment 190833

Highly agree here. Would be far more comfortable if it picked up some slack again. I know it’s not high res model and can’t pick up jackpot areas such and such, but the overall amount of QPF that it’s losing the last couple of runs does make me feel slightly uneasy. Hopefully that changes here shortly

 

[GaWx]

Yeah, can't blame them for being conservative. Would think that the ceiling has been raised for those of us on the periphery since 20:1 rates have been floated (assuming things stay modeled as is). Do you think that the best-case scenarios for us actually result in quite a bit of accumulation, albeit unlikely?

What do you consider “quite a bit of accumulation”?

 

[wow]

North and more. Thanks for hosting those, Jon boy.

Yeah I've got to dust those off.. I think I made a post at Amwx at some point

 

[NBAcentel]

What do you consider “quite a bit of accumulation”?

My question for you today is, how anomalous just is this event, heights, 850mb temps, freezing temps down to Miami, when was the last time ?

 

[griteater]

Very interesting. Can you tell us what we should be rooting for with our shortwave dropping down? I understand the general idea of digging sw and negative tilt. I’ve see some of the energy depicted pretty sharp and other times it’s more round like a bowling ball. What do we need?

Yeah, you have it here. For strength and more precipitation, you would be looking for: 1) the vort max being stronger, 2) lower height level in the middle of the closed low, 3) the tilt of the wave at the base to be negative or going toward negative, 4) winds at 500mb flowing into the base of the wave / into the vort max to be strong and increasing

We've probably run out of time for major changes here, but slight adjustments mean a lot still

 

[griteater]

Looks like a spinning whirlpool of snow

 

[Snowfan]

My question for you today is, how anomalous just is this event, heights, 850mb temps, freezing temps down to Miami, when was the last time ? View attachment 190835View attachment 190836View attachment 190837

Christmas Day 1989 is the last time that Miami went below freezing

 

[WxDawgWx]

What do you consider “quite a bit of accumulation”?

For here, 2+ inches would be historic

 

[Ksnow33]

I wonder if thunder snow will happen with this much forcing and upper level convergence

 

[Pilotwx]

View attachment 190805By the time the 00z GFS run comes out the Northern Foothills will be at 2 inches, and by 06z tomorrow we will have flurries. All runs today have cut totals the previous amounts in 1/2

 

[Chazwin]

Christmas Day 1989 is the last time that Miami went below freezing

And the day before there was actually Gulf effect snow showers in the Tampa area. There was snow falling at times during the Bucs game that afternoon

 

[superjames1992]

Christmas Day 1989 is the last time that Miami went below freezing

Yeah, and the last time Miami saw temps this low (low to mid 30s) was in 2010. Inland areas went below freezing, which may also happen here.

https://www.weather.gov/media/mfl/news/ColdEpisodeJan2010.pdf

 

[KyloG]

18z AI beast mode

 

[KyloG]

AI snow

 

[Bigedd09]

AI snow

View attachment 190844

Could you please compare to 12z? Thanks


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[griteater]

I wonder if thunder snow will happen with this much forcing and upper level convergence

I do as long as it doesn't trend weaker. Major cold aloft coming with it / and the teardrop wave is bottoming out in the trough

 

[superjames1992]

AI snow

View attachment 190844

Holy crap, keep that in mind that's 10:1, too. Moyock is probably approaching two feet with ratios, and that's probably over a foot for Raleigh. I was not expecting that. Basically 5"+ for most almost every county in NC.

 

[packfan98]

AI snow

View attachment 190844

Looks like a pretty good consensus. Did it improve over the last run? Too many maps to keep up with.

 

[NBAcentel]

AI snow

View attachment 190844

You have just made my day sir. Exactly what I wanted to see

 

[KyloG]

AI surface.

 

[Ross]

AI snow

View attachment 190844

shot in the arm

better chance i can dog it out in richmond instead of having to chase this and stay with my friends in *shudders* cary

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Sick forecast for the upstate. Cold and snowy. It’s why we’re all here. You get em both with this one

 

[KyloG]

Looks like a pretty good consensus. Did it improve over the last run? Too many maps to keep up with.

Huge improvement

 

[Bigedd09]

Huge improvement


View attachment 190847View attachment 190848

Thank you kylo. Happy to stop the bleeding


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[wow]

Whew.. Just like yesterday's 18z runs hoping for a cave to the GFS.. The Euro family saves the evening.

Again, it's going to be a see saw of ups and downs with QPF forecasts until they hook on at the end.

 

[superjames1992]

Huge improvement


View attachment 190847View attachment 190848

Might be the biggest run-to-run shift I've seen with the AIFS, at least with these recent storms? Usually, when they shift they do it over the course of a few runs, it seems like? Like there's some built-in smoothing? But not here!

 

[Ksnow33]

Keep in mind the AIFS has been doing this the past few days

 

[Packsox03]

Holy crap, keep that in mind that's 10:1, too. Moyock is probably approaching two feet with ratios, and that's probably over a foot for Raleigh. I was not expecting that. Basically 5"+ for most almost every county in NC.

For reference, 5” is the winter storm warning criteria in DC/Baltimore which receives four times as much snow as we do

 

[griteater]

Everything I look at makes this out to be a 24 hour storm....give or take

 

[KyloG]

Op Euro 18z looks good

 

[beanskip]

Euro AI -- oh my! ULL stronger -- huge expansion of snow field.

 

[iGRXY]

Kylo posted the snow map but this is improving big time

 

[Ksnow33]

Op Euro 18z looks good


View attachment 190850

Looks better than 12Z for western areas

 

[KyloG]

18z Euro Trend

 

[SnowmasterATL]

View attachment 190851Kylo posted the snow map but this is improving big time

Has the west trend stopped?

 

[Packsox03]

Euro, AIFS, Google, GFS, CMC, NAM fwiw all massive hits, jury out on UKMET but looked good. Only real bummer is the GFS AI

 

[JalenW25]

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