Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1

[bouncycorn]

Bouncy bounced?

My plots always take forever. Haven't had time to optimize
StormVista will have them first. The files are huge

 

[Rain Cold]

Before the machines took over, if we saw the Euro and GFS agree within 4 days and be waxing the sleds. I think we should.

 

[packfan98]

National blend of models

 

[RBR71]

My plots always take forever. Haven't had time to optimize
StormVista will have them first. The files are huge

And SV is behind as well, this is torture lol

 

[KyloG]

Well, it’s no Google…but it’s no slouch. Well maybe it is….

Arpge ain’t bad

 

[bouncycorn]

It could be a while, the data download process for all ensemble members hasn't even completed yet, not sure what the hold up is.

If this goes on much longer, I'll just render the members I downloaded and will share.

 

[Stevo24]

It could be a while, the data download process for all ensemble members hasn't even completed yet, not sure what the hold up is.

If this goes on much longer, I'll just render the members I downloaded and will share.

Well since it’s a monster who is it a monster for lol

 

[FortMillSCWx]

It could be a while, the data download process for all ensemble members hasn't even completed yet, not sure what the hold up is.

If this goes on much longer, I'll just render the members I downloaded and will share.

we are like 6 year old kids. At Christmas. You goin' let us peek at it or make us wait to unwrap it all?

 

[Edward Nygma]

Asked chatGPT to compute the SLR for the attached sounding and it came up with the following.

 

[KyloG]

18z Hybrid - slight improvement past few days…

 

[Tsappfrog20]

From Jonathan Wall




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[iGRXY]

From Jonathan Wall




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In other words, shift the snow totals west

 

[iGRXY]

Our N/S looks to have moved west early on with the NAM.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Our N/S looks to have moved west early on with the NAM.

And taller ridge out west

 

[BullCityWx]

BUFKIT put down a foot of snow at RDU from 1z to 6z on sunday.

Think about that.

 

[iGRXY]

Everything on this run looks better at 39.

 

[WolfpackHomer91]

How do we boost the QPF? Like get ratios …. But why waste them I want 1-1.5” QPF so someone can go wild
Especially with ratios around 15:1 maybe 16:1

1” QPF = 15”


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[Bigedd09]

While we wait, had chatgpt take a stab at it.View attachment 190299

Well if true that’s quite a different look than all other modeling


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[iGRXY]

N/S is west, more separation it appears between the N/S and our 50/50 low, the southern stream vort is stronger, and the western ridge is quite a bit taller

 

[WxBlue]

BUFKIT put down a foot of snow at RDU from 1z to 6z on sunday.

Think about that.

That's the stuff you get in New England nor'easters. Just over 2"/hr.

 

[BullCityWx]

meant a foot whoops

Yall didn’t see a foot on 1/23/03?

 

[Chazwin]

That's the stuff you get in New England nor'easters. Just over 2"/hr.

If I remember correctly didn’t RDU get 17 inches in five or six hours during the Crusher?

 

[BullCityWx]

If you take the 17:1 ratio that’s been fairly consistent on BUFKIT and apply it to the EPS QPF maps, that 7” mean is really 12”

 

[egg]

Yall didn’t see a foot on 1/23/03?

nope. i wasn’t alive yet anyways but webber put out a map sometime ago that showed the last foot of snow for everyone in nc and here it was like 1984 or something like that

 

[bouncycorn]

Still having data downloading issues (ON THEIR END), so I decided to go ahead and render the members that I already downloaded. Here's one of the members, rendering the others now.. but this is the first thing I saw when downloading this data (in a much uglier ZARR data opener)

 

[Stormsfury]

If I remember correctly didn’t RDU get 17 inches in five or six hours during the Crusher?

It was 16" in 4 hours.

 

[BullCityWx]

nope. i wasn’t alive yet anyways but webber put out a map sometime ago that showed the last foot of snow for everyone in nc and here it was like 1984 or something like that

Now that was a magical storm. The evolution of this event had some similarities with a Lee side trof.

 

[bouncycorn]

 

[Btownheel]

How do we boost the QPF? Like get ratios …. But why waste them I want 1-1.5” QPF so someone can go wild
Especially with ratios around 15:1 maybe 16:1

1” QPF = 15”


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See Dr. Wall’s tweet. Slide this puppy west about 50 miles and let it bomb.


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[CNCsnwfan1210]

Still having data downloading issues (ON THEIR END), so I decided to go ahead and render the members that I already downloaded. Here's one of the members, rendering the others now.. but this is the first thing I saw when downloading this data (in a much uglier ZARR data opener)


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984mb low near Hatteras? Sheesh..


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[egg]

alr just figured out my last foot. it was the 1988 mega storm of the universe

 

[weather bubba]

Still having data downloading issues (ON THEIR END), so I decided to go ahead and render the members that I already downloaded. Here's one of the members, rendering the others now.. but this is the first thing I saw when downloading this data (in a much uglier ZARR data opener)


View attachment 190300View attachment 190301View attachment 190302

I love the location of the coastal low with this NextWeather 2 run! Much better stuff than the last few runs from this model. Now we are looking at something that could be epic for many of us.

 

[Chazwin]

nope. i wasn’t alive yet anyways but webber put out a map sometime ago that showed the last foot of snow for everyone in nc and here it was like 1984 or something like that

Yeah looking at Webb’s maps, it looks like you missed a foot by about 30 miles to the north in Jan 2003 and 15 miles or so to the southeast in February 2004.

 

[Ross]

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This the biggest run to run shift you seen from this thing at this range?

 

[Tsappfrog20]

Still having data downloading issues (ON THEIR END), so I decided to go ahead and render the members that I already downloaded. Here's one of the members, rendering the others now.. but this is the first thing I saw when downloading this data (in a much uglier ZARR data opener)


View attachment 190300View attachment 190301View attachment 190302

Thank brother for running this for us! You are the man!!


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[iGRXY]

NAM is loading up a bomb. As long as something drastic doesn’t go wrong.

 

[bouncycorn]

Here's member 2: I don't want to clutter up the thread with these images, but you get the idea..

 

[Chazwin]

Here's member 2: I don't want to clutter up the thread with these images, but you get the idea..

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View attachment 190313

Is it trying to develop the low in the eastern Gulf?

 

[wow]

Clutter it up! Wow you're right. Monster runs.

 

[bouncycorn]

This the biggest run to run shift you seen from this thing at this range?

It's hard to tell because I haven't seen the full ensemble yet. Part of the reason it is so consistent is because it is a 68-member well-dispersed ensemble.