Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1

[SD]

18z GFS 500mb vorticity and composite reflectivity

 

[bud006]

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Thank you for doing this. I’ve become far more intrigued at the potential for my part of the world as the afternoon has turned to evening, and the signals are present that moisture could work far enough west to get north of Atlanta into the game. Here we go with the intense model watching again!

—30—

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

Here's member 2: I don't want to clutter up the thread with these images, but you get the idea..

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980mb low on that one


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[griteater]

NAM Trend

 

[iGRXY]

Closed off at 69.

 

[Ross]

It's hard to tell because I haven't seen the full ensemble yet. Part of the reason it is so consistent is because it is a 68-member well-dispersed ensemble.

Ah didn’t realize it was individual members, at the gym and skimming. Still love the look

 

[Mike_96]

I used to live in Charlotte. Have a good feeling about this one. Wish you all continued good model trends!! Miss the snow

 

[weather bubba]

The second member may have even been better than the first. Keep the good news coming!

 

[iGRXY]

 

[bouncycorn]

Ah didn’t realize it was individual members, at the gym and skimming. Still love the look

Yeah for whatever reason the data was only available on the server for a short period and I was only able to download 6 members before it failed, now it won't download any of them. The 6 all look really good though.

 

[wow]

It's happening

 

[bncho]

This was gonna be a bomb for NC/VA

 

[wow]

At 84.. this is further NW than the GFS. Rain in SE NC!

 

[BrickTamland]

NAM at 81.

 

[Brandon10]

And warm nose. Great.

 

[Rain Cold]

It's happening
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Your gifs are at light speed lol

Looks amazing though. We're going to remember this one...and this winter.

 

[NCSNOW]

Lol at the poor tv mets an nws tommorrow having to start telling public a 1 foot plus snowstorm is heading our wAy. Starts in 48 hours

 

[BrickTamland]

End of the NAM

 

[egg]

nam decided cleveland county didn’t deserve snow

 

[iGRXY]

At 84.. this is further NW than the GFS. Rain in SE NC!
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NAM feedback issues in the long range people.

 

[TheWeatherDriver]

No way we fumble this look right? We have the GFS, Euro, and CMC on our side, with weathernext trending in the right direction...

 

[BrickTamland]

 

[bouncycorn]

Members 3-5 are about the same as the first couple, but member 6 deserves to be posted:

 

[LukeBarrette]

End of the NAM

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Before it begins to probably tilt and throw more precip back to the SW

 

[NCSNOW]

Dont panic on the pink shades. You have about a 10 mile transition line in these miller A bombs. It retreats off you fast as column cools top down.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

where’s all the precip that should be thrown back into upstate sc? Looks slim.

ULL still hadn't swung through yet

 

[SD]

Nam was pulling 0c at 700mb back to about my house and the 850 low was over near Asheville. Not that great along and E of 95.

 

[Chazwin]

At 84.. this is further NW than the GFS. Rain in SE NC!
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With the 540 almost sitting on the coast line? I really hope this is not the beginning of NAM sniffing out a warm nose. Obviously I feel confident that everything switches back to snow as the low deepens and pulls in more cold air, but you’d hate lose a lot of QPF to a mix

 

[TheWeatherDriver]

I just don't see mixing becoming an issue with this system. I feel like it's either going to be rain or snow.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

NAM was really about to curl. Staring down the barrel of a top 10’er here. Do it

 

[Rain Cold]

where’s all the precip that should be thrown back into upstate sc? Looks slim.

It's the 84 hour NAM. You might as well get the crayons out and draw your own maps.

 

[NCSNOW]

ULL still hadn't swung through yet

It was just getting started. Will be hoot to look at tommorow

 

[CaryWx]

Nam was pulling 0c at 700mb back to about my house and the 850 low was over near Asheville. Not that great along and E of 95.

Yeah not comfortable at this range but it is the NAM at 84 and precip types/totals are suspect. Also that 540line was down on the coast.

 

[iGRXY]

Relax on the NAM precip maps in the long range people. That comma head will be there and the ULL hasn’t swung through yet.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

It's the 84 hour NAM. You might as well get the crayons out and draw your own maps.

Yeah that thing was about to wrap up and destroy two (edit: three)states it appeared

 

[AJ1013]

Never seen a forecast this cold here. Unbelievable. Rooting for you guys to get your snowstorm but us in the tropics are also invested.

 

[Chazwin]

Relax on the NAM precip maps in the long range people. That comma head will be there and the ULL hasn’t swung through yet.

Yeah look at the map, you can still see the ULL is still back over middle Tennessee and is about to to change tilt. If that went out 3 more hours, precip probably explodes

 

[Brandon10]

With the 540 almost sitting on the coast line? I really hope this is not the beginning of NAM sniffing out a warm nose. Obviously I feel confident that everything switches back to snow as the low deepens and pulls in more cold air, but you’d hate lose a lot of QPF to a mix

Ive lived in ENC long enough to know the warm nose loves to cause rain east of 17 while west is a winter wonderland. GFS was hinting at this. Hopefully it doesnt verify

 

[Chazwin]

Brad P just released a Vlog update on Facebook. He’s raising his snow meter to 4. I think he’s getting excited

 

[Tokenfreak]

I just seen this graphic from the weather channel