Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Looks like it still likes the ULL in WNC
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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
sure, but less than it did in prior runs and has been a steady trend drier. to be clear i'm not burying this one, but let's get a positive trend on an accurate model
Brandon10
Member
Almost looks identical to the AI. GFS strip, just lighter total
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
6z Euro went east too
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iGRXY
Member
That's a legit movement from a model that's usually very locked in by now
Cary_Snow95
Member
Very slight tweaks in the TPV have significant implications. I think we are seeing windshield wiping more than anything.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Phased Miller A bombs like what may be coming this weekend have so many moving pieces to them that they all have to be in the right spot and in the right orientation to make it work properly.
Models, even the AI ones, are probably too underdispersed in how they’re handling everything
I remember Dec 2010 went from amped to then looking more suppressed at some point in the medium range only to make a hellacious comeback inside day 3. Long ways to go with this one
Models, even the AI ones, are probably too underdispersed in how they’re handling everything
I remember Dec 2010 went from amped to then looking more suppressed at some point in the medium range only to make a hellacious comeback inside day 3. Long ways to go with this one
MichaelJ
Member
I don't have a good feeling about this one unless you are East of RAH and cold enough out there. Could change I guess but I don't see the snow making it back this far West. Looks like a southern slider that will slide out into the Atlantic. Those of you holding on to hope for the GFS/CMC are not going to be happy by this time tomorrow IMO 
Edward Nygma
Member
Yeah the AIFS is probably the most encouraging reliable piece of guidance at the moment. EPS/AIFS-ENS/WxN seems to be the way to go, but even that grouping has notable disagreement at this juncture
Also, this is a bit of a weenie comment, but WxN did make moves with QPF over the last few days of runs with the prior system. It locked in synoptic features pretty well but adjustments did still get made, mainly that drier solution southeast of I-85
Cary_Snow95
Member
In the thread I posted above, Tomer mentions that with TPVs, models will be under dispersed and struggle to resolve small changes.
We still have a ways to go but the latest AI runs have been a setback . Hopefully the models will start the west trend that has happened so many times before later today and it will still be game on.
BHS1975
Member
According to AI the models maybe locked in falsely and missing something important due to too much noise. I wonder if we will get recon flights?
Brandon10
Member
The question is, with the 12Z models Beginning in 15 to 20 minutes, do we see favorable trends? Or do we see worsening trends continue? While we are still a long ways out, it is important that we don't work too backwards at point.
rburrel2
Member
00z Ai Graphcast was a rburrel/mitch mauler.
Looks like a whiff for Raleigh
Looks like a whiff for Raleigh
Hopefully would be a little higher ratio than 10:1, anyway it does give us wiggle room if it starts to tick back W. Seems it was locked in last week but iirc it did tick NW last 48 hrs. As long as it doesn't whiff completely before it starts to do that. Whiff is definitely a possibility
Yeah...I am no longer worried about any sort of west trend with this one...
A victory for us would be a 1-3" event board wide...I would take that in a heartbeat and call it a winter. Atleast for Raleigh, we don't do big snowfalls anymore, they never work.
BHS1975
Member
Yeah we need a bombing coastal in just the right spot like the CMC was showing.Yeah...I am no longer worried about any sort of west trend with this one...
A victory for us would be a 1-3" event board wide...I would take that in a heartbeat and call it a winter. Atleast for Raleigh, we don't do big snowfalls anymore, they never work.
Encouraged to see there’s still a path forward at least around here even if this thing scoots ots.
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Is the model above you showed this one below? I never knew what this even was...
And I don't know what this one is either...but it's a bomb
I like the hybrid GEFS...super ensemble of GEFS/AIGEFS
And I've seen the Euro struggle with pure northern stream systems before...there I said it...and I won't take it back.
And I've seen the Euro struggle with pure northern stream systems before...there I said it...and I won't take it back.
rburrel2
Member
Yea even the euro gives us something.
i believe so. Bouncycorn said last year the Graphcast has decent verification scores. The fourcast, not so good.
BrickTamland
Member
Canadian, UK, and GFS were all crush jobs. GFS trended further west the last three runs. But then the Euro and WeatherNext moves east. This is about the point last week the monster snow storm became an ice storm. Hope this isn't the point this week the monster snow storm is just too far east.
NBM still looks great although latest run doesn't include 6z model data and I don't think it has AI models data output, but I may be wrong about that.
One concern showing up for central NC is being between 2 systems. ULL snow maximum out west and another maximum downeast with bombing coastal. Wouldn't be the first time
TPVs are extremely difficult to forecast, so I wouldn't take any of the models very seriously this far out. Encouraging points at this time is all models continue to show a storm signal. Small changes in the pattern will have significant impacts on the storm's evolution, as we are seeing right now.
We will continue to have wild swings until we get closer to being 48 hrs out.
We will continue to have wild swings until we get closer to being 48 hrs out.
WPC
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iGRXY
Member
Right now I think we are still sitting well in the western side of the state due to the ULL can definitely still over perform whereas those east of here are more dependent on the coastal.
JWall knows there’s a lot to like. Climo is an hell of a thing. All eyes on WeatherNext. Let’s see how it handles this one
euro camp is a real bummer. it is nice to have the bomb camp occupied by a diverse set of models but that doesn't really give me decision making confidence
The NBM seems much more in line with what I expect out of these coastal storms. Granted those west of the coastal plains are going to be more iffy.
As we saw last January these lows love riding the thermal gradient caused by the Gulf Stream. Yea in some cases they can scoot east towards Bermuda but that’s way less common.
As we saw last January these lows love riding the thermal gradient caused by the Gulf Stream. Yea in some cases they can scoot east towards Bermuda but that’s way less common.
Yeah I would not want to be a forecaster for this one.... the public is already itching to make you guys look bad after this last storm
UNCSC
Member
For what it is worth, the GEFS had a large increase in snow mean and had more members with the ULL and coastal interacting
Chattownsnow
Member
We are losing this one in East Tennessee I believe but it’s just close enough for me to stay interested. All I can say is if I was in the bullseye right now I would probably be more worried than I am right now…so there’s at least that lol
I think Cary hits on the main trend here. Geographically, we’ve trended better for NC/SC, but we’ve lost storm intensity in some cases. But mainly at this point, we need to avoid the awful scenarios (Euro Op / Icon)
i think the NBM is a useful "centering" tool, especially when there's broad consensus, but the flipside is that it will keep accumulations residually high well after there's firm evidence that we're getting rug-pulled, which what the euro is trying to do now.
i've said this before but here in richmond for my field goal snows there have been multiple times that the euro was the lousiest, most suppressed of the bunch, and i believe that was borne out in other areas last year. my recollection is that it had nothing around this range for the coastal plain and only marginally scraped wilmington during the gulf blizzard. unscientific, anecdotal, food for thought
Not that mad at the euro. Snow is snow