Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1

[buckinbronco]

Hell CMC is giving Clearwater some snow lol

 

[BrickTamland]

Carolina Cusher 2

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

For Georgia and South Carolina, under that ULL passage, if it played out like the CMC is cooking up, there's no doubt some areas would get lollipops not showing on the global model.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

HONK

 

[billyweather]

CMC took an absolute perfect path for the western carolinas to max out. And again … ULL typically overperform. You wouldn’t be able to pick up on it until we get well within short range models like the CAMs but the boom potential is massive

Any analogs for the upstate that come to mind?

 

[iGRXY]

Final totals. Upstate getting 10-12”

 

[superjames1992]

Carolina Crusher 2.0

 

[NCwx1992]

tonight i pledge allegiance to the great nation of Canada

 

[Ross]

cmc on the left
march 1 1980 on the right

 

[Makeitsnow]

For Georgia and South Carolina, under that ULL passage, if it played out like the CMC is cooking up, there's no doubt some areas would get lollipops not showing on the global model.

That is 18 or 20,inches lollipop ? Lol

 

[wow]

That's all it takes .. a little more backing up of the wave and a perfect swing. We may continue to see a bit more of a move west.

 

[RBR71]

And again temps in teens during duration

 

[RBR71]

View attachment 189813View attachment 189814
cmc on the left
march 1 1980 on the right

Bruh.... thought I'd never have the opportunity to see a March 1-2, 1980 storm again in my life. Have my doubts but like where we are atm

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

If it’s going to turn the corner the CMC is usually first to do it. We laughed it off last weekend when it was the first to show that mid 20’s wedge with mid 60’s right underneath it. It likes to amp and for all of our sake I hope it’s jumping the gun with its bias and leading here

 

[FortMillSCWx]

Bruh.... thought I'd never have the opportunity to see a March 1-2, 1980 storm again in my life. Have my doubts but like where we are atm

Watching the ACC tourney IIRC. Special days those were.

 

[wxdaniel]

I hate to bring in the bad news folks but the CMC always gets left behind first. We toss, we hug. Same goes with the GFS. The Euro had a more pronounced southern energy stream. What makes this data ingest more compelling than the others?

 

[RAN]

oh man if this verifies

 

[mx3gsr92]

At what point do we concerned with a NW trend sitting 5-6 days out?

 

[iGRXY]

Look at these ratios at the height of the storm

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

as I see it we don’t run a huge risk of losing this to another region per say but if we’re going this route as with most if not ALL Miller A’s somebody must get rained on.

 

[Ross]

everything's unambiguously screaming storm, but everything was also unambiguously screaming storm last week. i can't totally bite. there will be one more twist, one more shoe to drop, and i hope it's benevolent instead of neutering this, which seems to always happen

 

[wxdaniel]

If it’s going to turn the corner the CMC is usually first to do it. We laughed it off last weekend when it was the first to show that mid 20’s wedge with mid 60’s right underneath it. It likes to amp and for all of our sake I hope it’s jumping the gun with its bias and leading here

I remember when we check the UK data suggesting the gulf coast would be 60-70 degrees and we tossed. But that verified. Canning remember when the CNC did it last week.

 

[NCwx1992]

UKIE doing its thing tonight too

 

[RBR71]

Ukmet not as extreme but a good hit for eastern areas as well

 

[NBAcentel]

UKMET BOMBA

 

[Edward Nygma]

as I see it we don’t run a huge risk of losing this to another region per say but if we’re going this route as with most if not ALL Miller A’s somebody must get rained on.

It's true that's the risk, but I mean there has to be an upper limit to both how amped this can be and how far west it tracks with this kind of Arctic cold press bearing down on it.

 

[Packsox03]

Man, Raleigh would look like Buffalo if the CMC verified

 

[RBR71]

Ukmet not as extreme but a good hit for eastern areas as well

Ummm

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I remember when we check the UK data suggesting the gulf coast would be 60-70 degrees and we tossed. But that verified. Canning remember when the CNC did it last week.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

At what point do we concerned with a NW trend sitting 5-6 days out?

You don't. You worry about an east trend right up until you have a radar tab open.

 

[NCwx1992]

Ummm
View attachment 189822

yeah the kuchera maps are really hitting hard with this storm; 15:1 ratios at minimum it seems in and around the current bullseye area

 

[NCwx1992]

bump in the GEFS compared to 18z as well

 

[Disco_Lemonade]

The stall as it bombos.. sheesh

 

[Ross]

uk should deepen more/throw more stuff inland, don't think these lobes of low pressure from convective feedback along the warm from verify

 

[iGRXY]

I know it’s banter but Google .. you folks know how to make a damn weather model

 

[hky1894]

Other than weathernext the UK and CMC were first to shift north with last weeks storm. These solutions shouldn’t be tossed. Huge 0z runs so far.

 

[Brandon10]

This baby wants to ride the gulf stream and bomb. The SSTs close to the close are colder due to the winter temps so far. Wonder if that keeps it safely offshore.

 

[iGRXY]

View attachment 189825
uk should deepen more/throw more stuff inland, don't think these lobes of low pressure from convective feedback along the warm from verify

Continue to think even if the LP or ULL don’t tick west, the precip shield will widen more and we will start seeing folks in the western carolinas seeing pockets of totals pushing what we see on the coast.

 

[Goose88]

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

But what about that February sun angle?