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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1

If this keeps up I may have to go stay at my paw in laws cottage in KDH this weekend. Assuming the boom doesn’t happen closer to shore. Which it probably does
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
Starting this NW jog too early. Just like this previous storm, around the same lead time.
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This isn’t really the same setup as the last storm that was a West to east miller B storm. This a coastal bomb miller A. Not saying a far big NW cant happen, but it is unlikely in this type of scenario. Even if the high pressure relaxes there is room for error but more just warm nose issues for eastern NC not really massive track changes.
 
CMC popping a low in the western northern gulf now...even earlier than icon now.


prateptype-imp.us_se.png
 
I hope I dont jinx us...but with the cold and 850s being advertised...I truly wonder if the track doesnt shift too far NW if the only warm nose isseus would be confined to the OBX.
 
weather bubba said:
The Miller A low has been sitting off of the North Carolina coast for nine hours at this point and is starting to deepen. The trough is a little too far east for the western parts of NC/SC to get much of anything but if this were to come to pass, the eastern parts of NC would get hammered. Reminder: this is the GFS at more than five days.View attachment 189525
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Instant occlusion. The low basically is wrapping up as the 500mb closes the gap.
 
Bigedd09 said:
I actually respectully disagree. weathernext2 and canadian were all over the last storm at this range. (for the most part) with the storm track. I think this is the best look in a very long time
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I don’t disagree about weathernext and Canadian doing well with the last system but just look at the jump NW from the 0Z Canadian to the 12Z run.
 
And if we are getting technical about the Canadian looking back 5 days out on the storm that just went through yesterday. It had the track absolutely nailed 5 days out and even had this storm showing up. Not saying the Canadian is a great model but you have to tip your hat when it is due
 
CMC: looks good now for many (thus I wish that were for today) but we need to be wary of N/NW trend of the low and the Arctic high: how much more will it trend? There’s still 5 days to go, plenty of time for further NW trends.

This is over only a 36 hour period of runs:
IMG_7608.gif

Temps warming up as Arctic air backs NW:
IMG_7609.gif
 
UNCSC said:
And if we are getting technical about the Canadian looking back 5 days out on the storm that just went through yesterday. It had the track absolutely nailed 5 days out and even had this storm showing up. Not saying the Canadian is a great model but you have to tip your hat when it is due
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It indeed was one of the first accuracies and we kind of dismissed it at that range vs what others were showing. At least I did.
 
bouncycorn said:
I am near ATL and I think this is a great look at this range. Though it is an even better look for the Carolinas
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How far out were we from this Sat/Sun when the models turned NW? I know I seem negative but it’s hard to trust anything at this point!
 
Ross said:
wraparound, deform band, ull magic, more sophisticated lifting mechanisms at our disposal in a setup as depicted. i think now my biggest anxiety for the board is the cutoff/pinch going too far north
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Looks like you are sitting at some ridiculous 2ft amounts on that run
 
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