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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1

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We’ve got about 18 inches overall. 2 foot drifts and it’s still spitting snow. My Dad is not too happy about the amount of snow 😂

This has been an epic chase. We are celebrating with some steaks tonight and hoping we make it back tomorrow safely! I honestly didn’t think we’d break 10. So thankful and blessed to share it with my whole family! Hope all of you others are enjoying this snow!

Look at my truck bed. That is 100% fallen snow 😮
 
Flo said:
Unless some of these later bands produce this was an under achievement. If not for that last band would’ve maybe broken an inch. Is what it is. It was a pretty snow to watch fall which is all I care about. That’s why I want more. Beats a cold rain.
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A few more bands will probably rotate through over next few hours
 
FVHowler said:
For central NC, the dry slot slowly closing in. I think Harnett and Cumberland Counties are the last to close and will be the biggest losers of this otherwise historic snow event....amazing really.
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I'm encouraged by the radar returns coming in south of here off the ocean, hoping we can still do well down here considering.
 
Valid crashout incoming.

I just drove out to Mebane and back from ~Wegmans area of Raleigh. Picks up as soon as you hit Cary/KRDU. Morrisville and Durham are completely covered. Chapel Hill and points westward have a legit snowstorm-- roads totally covered and plows out. Come back home after 2.5 hours and it's still bone ------- dry. Not a flake. This is the worst bust I've ever experienced in Raleigh-- moved here in 2012. I'm legit done tracking storms after this, what's the point? 2 days ago 3 days ago the most reliable models were showing 6" minimum for MBY every single run. Now its 18:00 and there's not a single flake. The day before the seemingly amazing system hits, the dry slot starts getting progged. I tried to be optimistic but nope. In Raleigh, it's always something. Usually temp/mixing or moisture/QPF. This time neither was a problem. Oh cool you're excited cause of that? ---- you, random dry slot it up all day long. I hate being a weenie and I hate loving snow. This ------- sucks.
 
Lordhelmit said:
Valid crashout incoming.

I just drove out to Mebane and back from ~Wegmans area of Raleigh. Picks up as soon as you hit Cary/KRDU. Morrisville and Durham are completely covered. Chapel Hill and points westward have a legit snowstorm-- roads totally covered and plows out. Come back home after 2.5 hours and it's still bone ------- dry. Not a flake. This is the worst bust I've ever experienced in Raleigh-- moved here in 2012. I'm legit done tracking storms after this, what's the point? 2 days ago 3 days ago the most reliable models were showing 6" minimum for MBY every single run. Now its 18:00 and there's not a single flake. The day before the seemingly amazing system hits, the dry slot starts getting progged. I tried to be optimistic but nope. In Raleigh, it's always something. Usually temp/mixing or moisture/QPF. This time neither was a problem. Oh cool you're excited cause of that? ---- you, random dry slot it up all day long. I hate being a weenie and I hate loving snow. This ------- sucks.
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Yeah, the globals and NAM sucked with this one. Can't count on them for specifics at all. Just look at the 3K NAM and HRRR a day out.
 
Downeastnc said:
Gonna have to deal with some gaps in the band coming up from the south but been great so far....a solid 12ish hrs to go.
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My assumption is the best forcing for ascent should occur between about 7pm - 2am, coinciding with the low starting to bomb SE of Lookout. I'd expect a significant uptick in winds during this period too. Thus far the Atlantic tap has been about perfect, Gulf Stream convection is always a concern disrupting moisture transport back inland.
 
WeatherNC said:
My assumption is the best forcing for ascent should occur between about 7pm - 2am, coinciding with the low starting to bomb SE of Lookout. I'd expect a significant uptick in winds during this period too. Thus far the Atlantic tap has been about perfect, Gulf Stream convection is always a concern disrupting moisture transport back inland.
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Think we get our 12"+ totals? Its gonna be hard to tell I think but its snowing awful hard even when the return on radar get weaker.
 
Stormdoc said:
Trying to give additional optimism for us dry slot folks: I do like the way radar shows the bands tilting northwest, signs the trough is tilting negative now. I think we can enjoy some heavy bands for a few hours. I was just looking forward to watching it snow during the daytime for once!
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It's been a rough day man. I'll take all the optimism you can give! Also glad to hear so many in the west cashed in (I sincerely mean that). Been trying to let folks enjoy it without interupting with "BUT HEY LOOK AT ME WHERE SNOW?". 🤣
 
KyloG said:
And we aren’t getting 3” tonight. Where it’s snowing is it and where it’s not it won’t.
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Yeah we probably don’t see a flake. Glad it’s my last semester of college anyway so I can go somehwere with better climo. Literally anywhere north of I 10 and I probably have better snow climo except for the triangle
 
BrickTamland said:
Yeah, the globals and NAM sucked with this one. Can't count on them for specifics at all. Just look at the 3K NAM and HRRR a day out.
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Actually feeling more optimistic here now that those heavy returns east are quickly moving our way rather than starting with the upper level low. We have now a much better chance for back building and some heavier rates that the models cannot catch
 
Packsox03 said:
Yeah we probably don’t see a flake. Glad it’s my last semester of college anyway so I can go somehwere with better climo. Literally anywhere north of I 10 and I probably have better snow climo except for the triangle
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Greensboro….Charlotte…Greenville NC…Richmond. Pretty much anywhere
 
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