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Late July 2021 Significant Heat Wave

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Dewpoint Dan said:
Looks like there could be widespread 95-100 temps across much of the south. Could Atlanta possibly hit 100 ?
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I'll eat my treadmill if KATL hits 100. Too moist soils for that. Let's see what happens.

Maxar, everyone's favorite, thinks ATL's hottest of the next 2 weeks will be 95 (Thu and Fri).
They have ATL/RDU/MEM having their hottest days on Thu and Fri with 95 at ATL and RDU and 96 at MEM.
They have DFW at 102 Sat and Sun.

What do others think for these cities' hottest of the next 2 weeks (over, under, or right on these hottest day forecasts of 95, 95, 96 and 102)?

@SD already thinks over for ATL and RDU per the July thread.
 
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I just found this thread and I’m trying to figure out why we have a thread for a heatwave when we’re only looking at two days of 95-100 and the back to and even below average. There is absolutely nothing unusual about these temperatures the next couple days.
 
Chazwin said:
I just found this thread and I’m trying to figure out why we have a thread for a heatwave when we’re only looking at two days of 95-100 and the back to and even below average. There is absolutely nothing unusual about these temperatures the next couple days.
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Because the south is a big place and some locations will be 100+ for multiple days. Some locations could have their first 100 in many years.
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
Because the south is a big place and some locations will be 100+ for multiple days. Some locations could have their first 100 in many years.
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Sorry but I’ve just pulled up the forecasts for RDU, CLT, Columbia, ATL, Birmingham, Memphis, Little Rock, and DFW. The only places that are forecasted by the NWS to hit 100 are Columbia for one day (nothing unusual), DFW for 2 days (even less unusual), and Little Rock for a day (again nothing out of the ordinary). Heatwaves are longer than two days of a few degrees above average heat.
 
Chazwin said:
Sorry but I’ve just pulled up the forecasts for RDU, CLT, Columbia, ATL, Birmingham, Memphis, Little Rock, and DFW. The only places that are forecasted by the NWS to hit 100 are Columbia for one day (nothing unusual), DFW for 2 days (even less unusual), and Little Rock for a day (again nothing out of the ordinary). Heatwaves are longer than two days of a few degrees above average heat.
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We're also going to have an extended period of sunshine and lightning bugs. Lots of robust discussion about that topic in another thread.
 
Chazwin said:
Sorry but I’ve just pulled up the forecasts for RDU, CLT, Columbia, ATL, Birmingham, Memphis, Little Rock, and DFW. The only places that are forecasted by the NWS to hit 100 are Columbia for one day (nothing unusual), DFW for 2 days (even less unusual), and Little Rock for a day (again nothing out of the ordinary). Heatwaves are longer than two days of a few degrees above average heat.
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Thank you ! I swear some people have short term memory and on Jan 1 each year just forget all the weather of last year and start expecting weird stuff .
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
Could be a heat index of 115 in parts of MS tomorrow. That is unbelievable.
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That is not unbelievable .... NC has had 120s for heat indexes at times , let alone Mississippi. I cant recall if there was some estimated 130s here one year or not , but regardless nothing “ unbelievable” about 115 heat index in miss of all places !
 
Lickwx said:
That is not unbelievable .... NC has had 120s for heat indexes at times , let alone Mississippi. I cant recall if there was some estimated 130s here one year or not , but regardless nothing “ unbelievable” about 115 heat index in miss of all places !
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I get the feeling some people on this board wouldn't be impressed unless the heat index was 150.
 
Interested in seeing the temps the next few days. GSP has exceeded 95 on just 12 days since July 2016. 8 of those were 96, three were 97, and one 98. 2 of the 97 and the 98 were during the October heat wave of 2019, which was aided by lower dews. I am seeing forecasts for GSP to reach 97-99 depending on where you look.

2 other quick notes: AVL reached 90 today for the first time this year. Also, CAE has not reached 100 since October 4th 2019; a long drought for them.
 
I think the Heat Index is going to be awful around here, but hey it's late July...lol. but I don't think I even hit 100....The ground water levels are very high right now.
 
deltadog03 said:
I think the Heat Index is going to be awful around here, but hey it's late July...lol. but I don't think I even hit 100....The ground water levels are very high right now.
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If the weather stations and mine around here have been right, we've been hitting between 105 and 109 the last several days since our dews have been in the 70s and the humidity stays well above 50 to 60 percent. The temps have been between 94 and 92
 
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Dewpoint Dan said:
I personally feel too much attention is paid to the actual temp vs the heat index.
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So even if we’re just paying attention to heat index, what 95% of the south is experiencing the next couple days is not unusual… in fact it’s expected to happen at least several times a summer
 
Chazwin said:
So even if we’re just paying attention to heat index, what 95% of the south is experiencing the next couple days is not unusual… in fact it’s expected to happen at least several times a summer
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In sorry but a heat index of 115 is unusual.
 
Chazwin said:
Not in the areas that might say that
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By every definition a HI > 115 is UNUSUAL for ANYONE in the SE.

Most of the stations have averaged only .1-.2 days with HI>115 in the last 45 years. That is 5-10 days of 115 HI for the last 45 years. A day with HI of 115 is quite literally a 1 in 5-10 year event for the vast vast majority of the SE.

MRCC - Climatologies: Heat Index (illinois.edu)

You can see below the 115 line is at 0% probability.
Birmingham AL.pngATL HI.pngCLT HI.pngRDU HI.png
 
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Fountainguy97 said:
Stop talking about things you don't research. By every single definition, map, and chart a HI > 115 is UNUSUAL for ANYONE in the SE.

here is the Proof and a link. Most of the stations have averaged only .1-.2 days with HI>115 in the last 45 years. That is 5-10 days of 115 HI for the last 45 years. A day with HI of 115 is quite literally a 1 in 5-10 year event for the vast vast majority of the SE.

MRCC - Climatologies: Heat Index (illinois.edu)

You can see below the 115 line is at 0% probability.
View attachment 87331View attachment 87330View attachment 87332View attachment 87333
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Please forgive me as I removed the post. When I read the first post, I thought it said a 105 heat index… not 115. Yes a heat index of 115 in the areas that they are occurring isn’t something that occurs most years. Sorry for the confusion… I will still say that in terms of actual temperatures, which is what our official records are based on, what’s occurring today through Friday is still not at all unusual and can be expected to occur multiple times a summer.
 
Chazwin said:
Please forgive me as I removed the post. When I read the first post, I thought it said a 105 heat index… not 115. Yes a heat index of 115 in the areas that they are occurring isn’t something that occurs most years. Sorry for the confusion… I will still say that in terms of actual temperatures, which is what our official records are based on, what’s occurring today through Friday is still not at all unusual and can be expected to occur multiple times a summer.
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Ah I see haha I removed some of the aggressive words in my post. I saw the whole feed as just stubborn arguing but I understand that was not your intention.

you are right. The actual temps arn't going to be anything absurd. Very likely the hottest days of our year! Which I guess we can take as a win since we haven't seen so much heat.

This summer has been very cool for my area as far as high temperatures. I still haven't hit 90 yet. Only 3 years in the last 50 went without a single 90 reading in Erwin. I'll likely hit 90 here in the next 72 hrs though.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
Ah I see haha I removed some of the aggressive words in my post. I saw the whole feed as just stubborn arguing but I understand that was not your intention.

you are right. The actual temps arn't going to be anything absurd. Very likely the hottest days of our year! Which I guess we can take as a win since we haven't seen so much heat.

This summer has been very cool for my area as far as high temperatures. I still haven't hit 90 yet. Only 3 years in the last 50 went without a single 90 reading in Erwin. I'll likely hit 90 here in the next 72 hrs though.
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I have only had one 95 IMBY so far and that was the last week in May, normally by now I would have seen at least 8-10 of them. The high dewpoints have been consistent though all summer as I have experienced a number of afternoons where the lowest the dewpoint has gone has been around 70… I usually see it mix down into the mid 60s.
 
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