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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
331 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021
.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 331 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021
Some reports of very light drizzle have been reported in southern
portions of Franklin county, AL and in southern middle Tennessee over
the past few hours. Very scattered and sporadic. This has led to a
light glaze of ice on some trees and tops of cars in those areas.
Temperatures near and west of a line from Winchester, TN southwest
into Vinemont, AL continue to remain at or just below freezing. Some
locations near the MS/AL border are likely still in the upper 20s.
Further southeast of a Scottsboro to Guntersville line, temperatures
remain in the mid 30s to lower 40s near the front. Additional
freezing drizzle and light freezing rain continue to develop and push
northeast from Mississippi into northwestern Alabama at this time.
Expect around 0.05 inches of precipitation in the form of freezing
rain to continue to move northeast and affect locations in
northwestern Alabama this afternoon. Therefore, an advisory is in
effect until 6 PM for this activity.
This precipitation will continue to move northeast and affect areas
mainly near and west of a line from Winchester, TN to Vinemont, AL
overnight, mainly in the form of freezing rain possibly mixed with a
bit of sleet. An additional .10 to .15 inches of freezing rain is
expected through 6 AM on Monday. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect
for all areas west of northeastern Alabama from 6 PM tonight through
6 AM on Tuesday for this and further wintry precipitation
accumulations.
.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 331 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021
This front will edge slightly more to the northwest during the
morning hours on Monday. However, locations near and west of this
same line from Winchester southwest to Vinemont, AL look to remain
near or below 33 degrees. Models continue to show heavy precipitation
developing near and behind the front early Monday morning as a low
forms further southeast it as it extends into the northern Gulf of
Mexico. This low continues to be forecast to move northeast into
Georgia, but more quickly on Monday. Where the cold air remains
behind the front will be a key to where the heaviest icing and
snowfall totals end up. For now, expecting the axis of heaviest icing
to occur in southeastern Franklin county, AL northeast into
Limestone county. Expect .15 to .35 inches of ice accumulation
overall in that swath from Sunday night into Monday evening before
ending. There will be a sharp gradient in ice accumulation as you go
into northeastern Alabama. At this point due to the location of the
frontal boundary over northeastern Alabama, most areas there will see
closer to a few hundreths to around 1/10 of an inch of icing and a
few hundreths of an inch of snowfall/sleet accumulations.
However, these conditions will hold off in northeastern Alabama until
3 PM, so the start time for the winter storm warning for those
counties has been delayed until then and continues through 6 AM on
Tuesday. If this front shifts further southeast with future updates,
the axes of heavier ice/snow could shift further east.
Models do move this out of the area more quickly, but freezing rain
or snow could hang on until around midnight on Tuesday. Temperatures
drop quickly Monday night into the 20s to upper teens, before
bottoming out in the lower teens to lower 20s by daybreak on Tuesday.
Thus, very hazardous icing will continue overnight. Highs don`t look
to climb above the upper 20s to around 32 degrees in most areas on
Tuesday, despite some clearing and sunshine. Therefore, these
hazardous icing conditions are not expected to improve on Tuesday.
Another cold night is expected on Tuesday night as more cloud cover
moves back into the region. Lows in the teens to lower 20s again
will not allow conditions to improve much.
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
331 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021
.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 331 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021
Some reports of very light drizzle have been reported in southern
portions of Franklin county, AL and in southern middle Tennessee over
the past few hours. Very scattered and sporadic. This has led to a
light glaze of ice on some trees and tops of cars in those areas.
Temperatures near and west of a line from Winchester, TN southwest
into Vinemont, AL continue to remain at or just below freezing. Some
locations near the MS/AL border are likely still in the upper 20s.
Further southeast of a Scottsboro to Guntersville line, temperatures
remain in the mid 30s to lower 40s near the front. Additional
freezing drizzle and light freezing rain continue to develop and push
northeast from Mississippi into northwestern Alabama at this time.
Expect around 0.05 inches of precipitation in the form of freezing
rain to continue to move northeast and affect locations in
northwestern Alabama this afternoon. Therefore, an advisory is in
effect until 6 PM for this activity.
This precipitation will continue to move northeast and affect areas
mainly near and west of a line from Winchester, TN to Vinemont, AL
overnight, mainly in the form of freezing rain possibly mixed with a
bit of sleet. An additional .10 to .15 inches of freezing rain is
expected through 6 AM on Monday. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect
for all areas west of northeastern Alabama from 6 PM tonight through
6 AM on Tuesday for this and further wintry precipitation
accumulations.
.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 331 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021
This front will edge slightly more to the northwest during the
morning hours on Monday. However, locations near and west of this
same line from Winchester southwest to Vinemont, AL look to remain
near or below 33 degrees. Models continue to show heavy precipitation
developing near and behind the front early Monday morning as a low
forms further southeast it as it extends into the northern Gulf of
Mexico. This low continues to be forecast to move northeast into
Georgia, but more quickly on Monday. Where the cold air remains
behind the front will be a key to where the heaviest icing and
snowfall totals end up. For now, expecting the axis of heaviest icing
to occur in southeastern Franklin county, AL northeast into
Limestone county. Expect .15 to .35 inches of ice accumulation
overall in that swath from Sunday night into Monday evening before
ending. There will be a sharp gradient in ice accumulation as you go
into northeastern Alabama. At this point due to the location of the
frontal boundary over northeastern Alabama, most areas there will see
closer to a few hundreths to around 1/10 of an inch of icing and a
few hundreths of an inch of snowfall/sleet accumulations.
However, these conditions will hold off in northeastern Alabama until
3 PM, so the start time for the winter storm warning for those
counties has been delayed until then and continues through 6 AM on
Tuesday. If this front shifts further southeast with future updates,
the axes of heavier ice/snow could shift further east.
Models do move this out of the area more quickly, but freezing rain
or snow could hang on until around midnight on Tuesday. Temperatures
drop quickly Monday night into the 20s to upper teens, before
bottoming out in the lower teens to lower 20s by daybreak on Tuesday.
Thus, very hazardous icing will continue overnight. Highs don`t look
to climb above the upper 20s to around 32 degrees in most areas on
Tuesday, despite some clearing and sunshine. Therefore, these
hazardous icing conditions are not expected to improve on Tuesday.
Another cold night is expected on Tuesday night as more cloud cover
moves back into the region. Lows in the teens to lower 20s again
will not allow conditions to improve much.
