Storm5
Member
00z eps vs 12z eps for Birmingham.
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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th
- Thread starter deltadog03
- Start date
ATLwxfan
Member
NAM mutes the SER quite a bit this weekend.
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Flotown
Member
van you do muscle shoals ease00z eps vs 12z eps for Birmingham.
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Snowman63
Member
We had an ice storm last night and this morning and expecting two more big storms next week on 2/15 and 2/17. Amazing model consistency for W Tennessee. I hope the models don’t flip. Lol
Stormlover
Member
from Huntsville NWS: Confidence is increasing that there will be some sort of impactful winter weather Monday and Tuesday, but when a degree or two makes a world of difference, it is hard to bank on anything in the day 5-6 timeframe. What we can speak to is that model agreement has improved over the past 24 hours, and ensemble trends have become more favorable for a potential winter/ice storm across the lower MS River and TN River valleys.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Been the story of the winter. Models pump it up in the midrange only to deflate it in the short range.
Dunkman
Member
I was about to say the same thing. It’s absolutely something to watch as it’s been the trend all winter.
farleydawg792
Member
Good luck to those who see something wintery over the next 7 days!!!
Storm5
Member
Huntsville
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iGRXY
Member
Was about to say the TPV was stronger and quite a bit further east.
Thanks storm. When I look at these now, i take everything past day 5 as a mirage and nothing more. And it seems that look as been similar for the past month. I suppose I should have always looked at it that way, but I think in the past I had more confidence that the models approximated reality.Huntsville
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Here's the freezing rain look for the Tuesday storm. Temperatures look supportive of actual accretion.
Stormlover
Member
ATLwxfan
Member
I should also add that the NAM tends to overdo the CAD as well so we will se how it shakes out.
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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
And the GFS way under does CAD so...
TileDude
Member
18z Icon continues the ideal of the low going thru South Georgia instead of Alabama unlike the GFS and Euro.
iGRXY
Member
When has the NAM ever overdone CAD? That is the best model at sniffing it out to an extent. In fact even it can have trouble at the surface getting the temps right as it can be a degree or 2 too high.
Stormlover
Member
iGRXY
Member
The GFS can't figure out CAD at all. The resolution on it is awful.
Just 2+ weeks ago the NAM was cold with a CAD setup
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Yeah it’s embarrassing really. As far as Global’s go, the CMC has always been pretty solid with CAD and it seems like the ICON is fairly decent with it.