• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

The SE ridge has lost every time this winter. Does it win here? Maybe. But it’s far from certain given it’s track record.


The thing is that the SE ridge being modeled too strong doesn't apply here.

1. The -EPO/+PNA is too weak/ too far west to make much of a impact to the SE ridge

2. We won't have much the -NAO block to suppress the PV/SE ridge like we did for most of the winter.

3. The MJO is stuck in phase 7.If the MJO was in phase 7 in JAN, this pattern would've a lot more favorable for the eastern SE ,but the MJO being phase 7 in FEB usually means bad things if are a winter lover.

4. The Models originally expected the pattern to become favorable(also happened with the Feb 11-13 timeframe),but back off as we got closer to the short range.

5.LA Nina's in Feb usually means a Central/western cold dump(unless you have blocking).

In conclusion, yes the SE ridge has usually been overestimated this year. However that's because we had a true -NAO. We don't have that here. Plus the Pacific is mediocre at best as well ,which helps to pump up a a SE ridge as well.
 
Last edited:
All I can say is wow! Placed under an Ice Storm warning practically in the 11th hour last night. Rumbles of thunder overnight, wake up to a nice glaze of ice on the surfaces here in Northwest Ms. Now looking to next week there's the potential of not one but two possible major winter storms for this area!?
 
Many folks much smarter than I have argued that the models seem to struggle with the PV. But we’ve now had near agreement and fairly consistent runs across most modeling for 48 hours or so. How can we prove they are struggling?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Some of the runs were showing this yesterday which isn’t coming close to verifying.
4B7A374B-71DE-4A02-BA98-185E16105D12.png
 
I never thought I'd see this forecast living in Texas lol ? modernweeniemodernweenie I'm starting to seriously wonder if we can go below zero now


View attachment 73878
That would be impressive Brent. My coldest high ever living here was 13 or so degrees which has happened a couple of times. Funny thing is it’s been a few years now since I’ve even gotten a low of 13 or colder.
 
Back
Top