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Tropical Karen

Getting to the point where Karen becomes a big mess and hard to find around Jerry. From there on out, it's picking vortex
 
Pretty sure the GFS has Karen and Jerry interacting on this run. You can see the vort turn back west I think though. What would it be named if it did that and then later regenerated?
 
I dont know where to post now, either Jerry or Karen page Lol. The two joins together and tries to form a new vort or one of the two or whatever it does, but so far it tries to do something
 
Hour 180 was just a mess on this GFS run with the cyclone interaction and the CAG trying to spin up as well.

Legacy has the interaction too.

Needless to say, if this interaction idea happens there will be a lot of papers written about it.
 
0Z UKMET
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN ANALYSED POSITION : 15.9N 65.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.09.2019 0 15.9N 65.6W 1008 24
1200UTC 24.09.2019 12 17.8N 65.4W 1008 27
0000UTC 25.09.2019 24 20.1N 65.0W 1007 25
1200UTC 25.09.2019 36 22.2N 64.1W 1007 30
0000UTC 26.09.2019 48 24.9N 62.6W 1004 32
1200UTC 26.09.2019 60 27.3N 61.9W 1002 34
0000UTC 27.09.2019 72 29.1N 60.9W 999 46
1200UTC 27.09.2019 84 31.0N 60.7W 1000 40
0000UTC 28.09.2019 96 32.8N 61.9W 1004 33
1200UTC 28.09.2019 108 33.3N 64.4W 1006 28
0000UTC 29.09.2019 120 33.9N 66.5W 1004 35
1200UTC 29.09.2019 132 33.0N 68.0W 1002 31
0000UTC 30.09.2019 144 33.3N 68.7W 999 42
 
forget the models being a mess, this storm is a mess lol

recon did apparently close off a center earlier though
 
IF Karen gets absorbed by Jerry, it wouldn't be the first Karen to be absorbed by another TC, believe it or not! It happened 4 Karens ago:

From wiki: "Hurricane Iris of the 1995 Atlantic hurricane season interacted with Hurricane Humberto, before interacting with and absorbing Tropical Storm Karen on September 3.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1995.png
 
0Z Euro: close to a merger with Jerry at 72 but not sure they'll actually merge.

Edit: Amazing! After being on the brink of a merger, Karen stops at 60W while Jerry continues out slowly!! Model cartoons or the real thing?

Edit: As a result of being in much lower shear than Jerry, Karen gets stronger while Jerry weakens.Now Karen starting a WSW move from 60W. How far west will she end up? Stay tuned!
 
Last edited:
0Z Euro: from 27N, 60W, she has moved due west to 27N, 70W as of hour 162 and there looks like there's no stopping her anytime soon! And she may be getting a bit stronger now even though shear is pretty high.
 
LF just N of WPB at 222! This has to be one of the most amazing runs I've ever seen in the tropics! After barely missing getting absorbed by Jerry, she stops and then moves west 1500 miles!
 
GaWx said:
LF just N of WPB at 222! This has to be one of the most amazing runs I've ever seen in the tropics! After barely missing getting absorbed by Jerry, she stops and then moves west 1500 miles!
Click to expand...

Its also a 1012MB low.....so "landfall" might be a bit of a grandiose term for that ;).....she is trying at least, if the shear lets up she might be ok but it needs to happen soon.....
 
0Z EPS prelim[/b] from my source showing CONUS hitting TCs with less than 1004 SLP: 8 total members (so ~15%, ~same as run from 12 hours ago)

Oct 1: 3 members hit C FL with 2 of them then hitting LA 10/3
Oct 2: 1 Myrtle Beach
Oct 3: 1 GA/SC border; 1 NC OB
Oct 4: 1 FL Keys; 1 S FL
 
Downeastnc said:
Its also a 1012MB low.....so "landfall" might be a bit of a grandiose term for that ;).....she is trying at least, if the shear lets up she might be ok but it needs to happen soon.....
Click to expand...

I'm still leary about it moving west under a ridge, that's usually a problem and a half but maybe the shear doesn't abate here???
 
GaWx said:
0Z EPS prelim[/b] from my source showing CONUS hitting TCs with less than 1004 SLP: 8 total members (so ~15%, ~same as run from 12 hours ago)

Oct 1: 3 members hit C FL with 2 of them then hitting LA 10/3
Oct 2: 1 Myrtle Beach
Oct 3: 1 GA/SC border; 1 NC OB
Oct 4: 1 FL Keys; 1 S FL
Click to expand...
Looks like maybe 8 total with several other's lurking, couple of H's

1569326503313.png
 
She's looking healthy this morning, has maintained deep convection all night although the center is I think on the NE side of the main area of convection. Currently trying to develop convection on the east side now too..... it's been resilient in a hostile environment
 
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