Henry2326
Member
We can only hope that this 18z GFS comes true.....just some rain.....
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Tropical Karen
- Thread starter GaWx
- Start date
Air recon has taken off for another look into Karen
Henry2326
Member
Looks more like a stall that west movement.
Henry2326
Member
18Z EPS (goes out to 144) continues the trend to less active and less threatening to the CONUS vs the 12Z EPS, which itself was less active/threatening than the 0Z EPS. To be sure, there are some still well offshore TCs of members at 144 that would probably later threaten the CONUS if the run were to go out a few more days. But I wouldn’t be being honest if I didn’t say that the 18Z 144 is merely a shell of the 0Z 162.
I should also note that the 12Z CDN ensemble is less active/threatening vs the 0Z. Trends, folks. Let’s see what the 0Z consensus says.
I should also note that the 12Z CDN ensemble is less active/threatening vs the 0Z. Trends, folks. Let’s see what the 0Z consensus says.
To illustrate the above EPS comparisons:
18Z EPS Hour 144: least active of 0Z, 12Z, and 18Z
12Z EPS hour 150: a bit more active than 18Z
0Z EPS hour 162: most active of the 3
Last few hours Karen really look like a strong tropical storm. Developing an eye.
Downeastnc
Member
Maybe your looking at something else cause Karen looks like crap....recon barely finding a depression.....
ForsythSnow
Moderator
That's not even the center. Its having a hard time with the thunderstorm activity due to extreme shear, hence the depressions in the thunderstorm activity.
Tropical Depression Karen Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019
Deep convection associated with Karen has increased during the past
few hours, but the thunderstorm activity remains confined to the
south of the center due to north-northeasterly shear. The Air Force
Hurricane Hunters have been investigating the depression this
evening, and a combination of the flight-level and SFMR data
indicate that winds are just below tropical-storm-force. The
aircraft measured a minimum pressure of about 1008 mb.
Karen is currently situated near the western periphery of a
subtropical ridge, and it is forecast to turn northward on Tuesday
as it passes Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. After that time,
a northward to north-northeastward motion seems likely as the
cyclone moves into a weakness left behind by Tropical Storm Jerry.
However, the models indicate that the trough will not capture Karen,
and instead the cyclone could come to a stop or drift westward by
the weekend as a ridge builds to the north of the system. Although
the models agree on the overall scenario, the details are quite
uncertain and there remains a large spread in the guidance at days 4
and 5. The new NHC track forecast is adjusted a little to the right
of the previous one to be in better agreement with the latest
consensus models.
The environment is still quite hostile around Karen with
north-northeasterly shear of about 20 kt currently impacting
the cyclone. However, the upper-level wind pattern is expected to
become more favorable during the next few days, and that could give
it an opportunity to strengthen. The NHC intensity forecast shows a
slow increase in winds through the forecast period. This forecast is
similar to the previous one, and lies roughly between the
aggressive SHIPS/LGEM models and the HWRF/HMON models which show
little change in intensity during the next several days.
Key Messages:
1. Regardless of Karen's status and intensity, the system is
expected to bring heavy rainfall, flash floods and mudslides to
Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands on Tuesday,
where a tropical storm warning is in effect. The rainfall and
potential flooding will likely continue on Wednesday even as the
center of Karen moves away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/0300Z 16.1N 65.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 17.5N 66.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 19.6N 66.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 22.0N 65.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 23.9N 65.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 26.8N 64.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 28.0N 64.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 29/0000Z 28.0N 66.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019
Deep convection associated with Karen has increased during the past
few hours, but the thunderstorm activity remains confined to the
south of the center due to north-northeasterly shear. The Air Force
Hurricane Hunters have been investigating the depression this
evening, and a combination of the flight-level and SFMR data
indicate that winds are just below tropical-storm-force. The
aircraft measured a minimum pressure of about 1008 mb.
Karen is currently situated near the western periphery of a
subtropical ridge, and it is forecast to turn northward on Tuesday
as it passes Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. After that time,
a northward to north-northeastward motion seems likely as the
cyclone moves into a weakness left behind by Tropical Storm Jerry.
However, the models indicate that the trough will not capture Karen,
and instead the cyclone could come to a stop or drift westward by
the weekend as a ridge builds to the north of the system. Although
the models agree on the overall scenario, the details are quite
uncertain and there remains a large spread in the guidance at days 4
and 5. The new NHC track forecast is adjusted a little to the right
of the previous one to be in better agreement with the latest
consensus models.
The environment is still quite hostile around Karen with
north-northeasterly shear of about 20 kt currently impacting
the cyclone. However, the upper-level wind pattern is expected to
become more favorable during the next few days, and that could give
it an opportunity to strengthen. The NHC intensity forecast shows a
slow increase in winds through the forecast period. This forecast is
similar to the previous one, and lies roughly between the
aggressive SHIPS/LGEM models and the HWRF/HMON models which show
little change in intensity during the next several days.
Key Messages:
1. Regardless of Karen's status and intensity, the system is
expected to bring heavy rainfall, flash floods and mudslides to
Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands on Tuesday,
where a tropical storm warning is in effect. The rainfall and
potential flooding will likely continue on Wednesday even as the
center of Karen moves away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/0300Z 16.1N 65.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 17.5N 66.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 19.6N 66.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 22.0N 65.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 23.9N 65.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 26.8N 64.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 28.0N 64.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 29/0000Z 28.0N 66.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Brent
Member
Yeah i dont know why but even some mets thought it was an eye earlier lol this has since been deleted
GeorgiaGirl
Member
I kind of think just based off IR that this is probably a wave right now, but since it's close enough to affecting people on the islands, the NHC is keeping it a depression to avoid people letting their guard down entirely.
Downeastnc
Member
The Icon is a mess, has a almost dead Jerry merge with a already dead Karen, then both weaken to a wave.... then its drifts it back SW and by 147 probably is trying to get it back to TS status......would that be a new name or Jerry again or maybe Jeren or Karry.....
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Given that the icon is at 111, I think that's actually an entirely different system as depicted there. There is a lemon down near the Yucatán and it's probably, probably that.