I know that few are paying this much attention right now, but the 18Z GFS actually had a semi-interesting result fwiw, a legit LF of a very weak barely closed sfc low at Cape Canaveral at 192. It is a potentially dangerous track if it were to be strong.
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Tropical Karen
- Thread starter GaWx
- Start date
pcbjr
Member
Thank the Good Lord it's not ...
Jessy89
Member
pcbjr
Member
No thank you, to be very selfish here ... that through the 5th are my Cedar Key sanity days ... no rain, no wind, nothing but sea gulls, oysters, redfish ... and an adult beverage or 10 ...
KAREN LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT FIRING SOME GOOD DEEP CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. ALSO NOTE LORENZO IS VERY IMPRESSIVE AND THERE IS ANOTHER WAVE COMMING OFF AFRICA THAT SHOULD BE WATCHED
The operational models still dissipate Karen and not one single EPS member gets her anywhere close to the US with almost all dissipating as well....
But she sure is trying atm, wouldn't it be something if she took full advantage of the short window of opportunity and blew up, that would throw a monkey wrench into things. Not saying it will happen and channeling my inner @GaWx statistical side, I'd give that about a 5% chance.
But she sure is trying atm, wouldn't it be something if she took full advantage of the short window of opportunity and blew up, that would throw a monkey wrench into things. Not saying it will happen and channeling my inner @GaWx statistical side, I'd give that about a 5% chance.
Not meaning to scare @pcbjr at all but the 6Z GFS is the 2nd in the last 3 that technically per the high resolution run that I have access to has a FL LF of a very weak and tiny closed sfc low meaning there’s still a potentially dangerous path if this were to be stronger than models are showing. Whereas the 18Z had it at Cape Canaveral moving NNW, the 6Z has it just N of WPB moving W.
Last edited:
Ethan80963!
Member
Ethan80963!
Member
INIT 26/1500Z 26.6N 63.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 27.6N 62.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 28.1N 61.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 28.0N 60.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 27.8N 60.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 27.3N 63.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/1200Z 27.1N 66.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/1200Z 27.0N 69.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
Shaggy
Member
If this all plays out as expected then I say this was handled very well by the models way in advance. Most have had some form of very weak remnants moving westward for numerous days and it appears they were correct all along.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
With the pattern we're in, any waves coming off from Africa will probably not be a US threat. The next possible thing we'll need to start keeping an eye on are the CAGs which could cause a gulf system.
Ethan80963!
Member
Henry2326
Member
That's what I've been waiting on.....ridge always softens as it moves closer. Hope its just rain.
At 168, when the 12Z GFS has the remnant sfc low at Melbourne, FL, (not quite closed in this run but it is clearly there per the high resolution map) the 12Z Euro has the remnant low only 1,000 miles E of the GFS way out only a few hundred miles SW of Bermuda. Can you say "model disagreement"?
Henry2326
Member
Typical....I watch for possible options but only get worried 3 days or so away. They just don't have definitive solutions any further out. Which is sad considering that people can die with only a 3 day window.
Ethan80963!
Member
Many times these end up being false alarms. But it does look like to me that the old LLC is finally getting surrounded by the eastern side of the heavy convection. If so, let's see how long this lasts and whether or not it ends up amounting to much.
Brent
Member
NHC thinks she's on her way out
...KAREN'S WIND FIELD BEGINNING TO UNRAVEL...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY...
Data from aircraft reconnaissance, ASCAT, and NOAA buoy 41049
indicate that Karen's circulation is becoming increasingly
elongated. A combination of data from these platforms also
supports maintaining an initial intensity of 40 kt for now. The
deterioration of Karen's structure suggests that weakening is
imminent, especially with an expected increase in northerly shear
during the next day or so. The GFS and ECMWF models--via their
simulated infrared satellite fields--are unanimous in showing Karen
losing its organized deep convection in about 36 hours. Based on
that, the new NHC forecast depicts Karen as becoming a remnant low
in 48 hours. Due to a significant increase in southwesterly shear
by day 4, the system is expected to open up into a surface trough by
day 5.
...KAREN'S WIND FIELD BEGINNING TO UNRAVEL...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY...
Data from aircraft reconnaissance, ASCAT, and NOAA buoy 41049
indicate that Karen's circulation is becoming increasingly
elongated. A combination of data from these platforms also
supports maintaining an initial intensity of 40 kt for now. The
deterioration of Karen's structure suggests that weakening is
imminent, especially with an expected increase in northerly shear
during the next day or so. The GFS and ECMWF models--via their
simulated infrared satellite fields--are unanimous in showing Karen
losing its organized deep convection in about 36 hours. Based on
that, the new NHC forecast depicts Karen as becoming a remnant low
in 48 hours. Due to a significant increase in southwesterly shear
by day 4, the system is expected to open up into a surface trough by
day 5.
Henry2326
Member
Somebody needs to tell her....lol
The main inhibiting factor has been there not being a sfc high to the north to allow for sfc convergence and instead the opposite, Jerry and his trough.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Nah I think Karen is on her way out, from what I understand it's had chances but while it still looks "OK", since there's not a wrapped up core, the shear and dry air is gonna really get to it.
SWVAwxfan
Member
Guess Karen never found a manager. ??
Karen has been downgraded to a TD and could be downgraded to a wave later today. But she will be fun to track, regardless, as she comes in the SE US' general direction without the significant danger/worries....my favorite kinds to track.
accu35
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
- 8,660
- Reaction score
- 10,817
I agree, but I was hoping for something to come my way
Ethan80963!
Member
Brent
Member
Poof
...KAREN DEGENERATES INTO A SURFACE TROUGH...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
...KAREN DEGENERATES INTO A SURFACE TROUGH...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Hmmm. Looks like she argued with the manager and got banned from the store. See you again in 7 years Karen.
Shaggy
Member
I would consider this a pretty big win for the GFS who has for days shown an open wave moving west with great run to run consistency. In fact most models did really good with this storm.
pcbjr
Member
ask Birdman ...