Many times these end up being false alarms. But it does look like to me that the old LLC is finally getting surrounded by the eastern side of the heavy convection. If so, let's see how long this lasts and whether or not it ends up amounting to much.
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Tropical Karen
- Thread starter GaWx
- Start date
Brent
Member
NHC thinks she's on her way out
...KAREN'S WIND FIELD BEGINNING TO UNRAVEL...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY...
Data from aircraft reconnaissance, ASCAT, and NOAA buoy 41049
indicate that Karen's circulation is becoming increasingly
elongated. A combination of data from these platforms also
supports maintaining an initial intensity of 40 kt for now. The
deterioration of Karen's structure suggests that weakening is
imminent, especially with an expected increase in northerly shear
during the next day or so. The GFS and ECMWF models--via their
simulated infrared satellite fields--are unanimous in showing Karen
losing its organized deep convection in about 36 hours. Based on
that, the new NHC forecast depicts Karen as becoming a remnant low
in 48 hours. Due to a significant increase in southwesterly shear
by day 4, the system is expected to open up into a surface trough by
day 5.
...KAREN'S WIND FIELD BEGINNING TO UNRAVEL...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY...
Data from aircraft reconnaissance, ASCAT, and NOAA buoy 41049
indicate that Karen's circulation is becoming increasingly
elongated. A combination of data from these platforms also
supports maintaining an initial intensity of 40 kt for now. The
deterioration of Karen's structure suggests that weakening is
imminent, especially with an expected increase in northerly shear
during the next day or so. The GFS and ECMWF models--via their
simulated infrared satellite fields--are unanimous in showing Karen
losing its organized deep convection in about 36 hours. Based on
that, the new NHC forecast depicts Karen as becoming a remnant low
in 48 hours. Due to a significant increase in southwesterly shear
by day 4, the system is expected to open up into a surface trough by
day 5.
Henry2326
Member
Somebody needs to tell her....lol
The main inhibiting factor has been there not being a sfc high to the north to allow for sfc convergence and instead the opposite, Jerry and his trough.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Nah I think Karen is on her way out, from what I understand it's had chances but while it still looks "OK", since there's not a wrapped up core, the shear and dry air is gonna really get to it.
SWVAwxfan
Member
Guess Karen never found a manager. ??
Karen has been downgraded to a TD and could be downgraded to a wave later today. But she will be fun to track, regardless, as she comes in the SE US' general direction without the significant danger/worries....my favorite kinds to track.
accu35
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
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I agree, but I was hoping for something to come my way
Ethan80963!
Member
Brent
Member
Poof
...KAREN DEGENERATES INTO A SURFACE TROUGH...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
...KAREN DEGENERATES INTO A SURFACE TROUGH...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Hmmm. Looks like she argued with the manager and got banned from the store. See you again in 7 years Karen.
Shaggy
Member
I would consider this a pretty big win for the GFS who has for days shown an open wave moving west with great run to run consistency. In fact most models did really good with this storm.
pcbjr
Member
ask Birdman ...