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Tropical Karen

GaWx

GaWx

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12Z Euro says the US may have a problem with Invest 99L. This is the same wave following Jerry that some of us have been saying is probably a bigger threat assuming it develops due to a redeveloping E US ridge/dangerous location. I’ve been mentioning that some of the EPS members threatening the US have been actually from this. We’ve been fortunate with Humberto and Jerry with regard to timing of ridge ebbing but this one looks different unfortunately.
 
GaWx said:
12Z Euro says the US may have a problem with Invest 99L. This is the same wave following Jerry that some of us have been saying is probably a bigger threat assuming it develops due to a redeveloping E US ridge/dangerous location. We’ve been fortunate with Humberto and Jerry with regard to timing of ridge ebbing but this one looks different unfortunately.
Click to expand...

Does any model actually have this getting close to the US?


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Jessy89 said:
Does any model actually have this getting close to the US?


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Click to expand...

Several runs of the 3 major ensembles have shown sone members hitting the US. My point is that unlike Jerry, which I immediately gave little chance of hitting the US based on progged breakdown of E US ridge, this one has and still is way up in the air assuming it becomes a TC. For Jerry, I said right away I’d easily lay $50 against a hit to win $10.
 
At hour 240 it hangs a hard NE out to sea thanks to a trough sweeping in I believe.

But for one run this definitely is interesting. That is an unsafe location for the still rebuilding Bahamas or the US. It'll be a race, and if it ends up being no hurricane (if this were to be true), perhaps we get relief shortly after October 1st from the heat.
 
12Z GEPS: awful ens because this is just a bunch of old version of Crazy Uncles (they tend to overdevelop) but gives idea of potential IF 99L actually develops: these are all moving W to WNW toward US or are already hitting. By 216, they almost all hit.
ED15A470-08EC-4F13-B267-2A9DA7D443E7.png
 
12Z EPS: confusing because some of these US hits from Jerry & others from 99L but higher % of the 99L that become TC hit vs % of Jerry TCs
5C6F42E4-573D-44C3-93A7-41D7695EC077.png
 
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GFS.... it’s trapped under that strong 591+ dm ridge, unless the trough can dig any more, it’s gonna crawl west D8563C12-55AC-4F3E-9E5B-B2D139E20839.jpeg
 
It’s showing a weaker system in the models right? If it were to intensify could that change track at all?


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GFS so far : Ridge is crawling west, but so is 99L, little weakness over the Bahamas giving it some space to crawl towards, lowering heights to its East but may not be enough
 
Goodness gracious, GFS has a 597 dm ridge that develops at hour 192, that’s incredible for the end of September/early October, it’s gonna bake under that
 
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