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Tropical Karen

GaWx

GaWx

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12Z Euro says the US may have a problem with Invest 99L. This is the same wave following Jerry that some of us have been saying is probably a bigger threat assuming it develops due to a redeveloping E US ridge/dangerous location. I’ve been mentioning that some of the EPS members threatening the US have been actually from this. We’ve been fortunate with Humberto and Jerry with regard to timing of ridge ebbing but this one looks different unfortunately.
 
GaWx said:
12Z Euro says the US may have a problem with Invest 99L. This is the same wave following Jerry that some of us have been saying is probably a bigger threat assuming it develops due to a redeveloping E US ridge/dangerous location. We’ve been fortunate with Humberto and Jerry with regard to timing of ridge ebbing but this one looks different unfortunately.
Click to expand...

Does any model actually have this getting close to the US?


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Jessy89 said:
Does any model actually have this getting close to the US?


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Click to expand...

Several runs of the 3 major ensembles have shown sone members hitting the US. My point is that unlike Jerry, which I immediately gave little chance of hitting the US based on progged breakdown of E US ridge, this one has and still is way up in the air assuming it becomes a TC. For Jerry, I said right away I’d easily lay $50 against a hit to win $10.
 
At hour 240 it hangs a hard NE out to sea thanks to a trough sweeping in I believe.

But for one run this definitely is interesting. That is an unsafe location for the still rebuilding Bahamas or the US. It'll be a race, and if it ends up being no hurricane (if this were to be true), perhaps we get relief shortly after October 1st from the heat.
 
12Z GEPS: awful ens because this is just a bunch of old version of Crazy Uncles (they tend to overdevelop) but gives idea of potential IF 99L actually develops: these are all moving W to WNW toward US or are already hitting. By 216, they almost all hit.
ED15A470-08EC-4F13-B267-2A9DA7D443E7.png
 
12Z EPS: confusing because some of these US hits from Jerry & others from 99L but higher % of the 99L that become TC hit vs % of Jerry TCs
5C6F42E4-573D-44C3-93A7-41D7695EC077.png
 
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GFS.... it’s trapped under that strong 591+ dm ridge, unless the trough can dig any more, it’s gonna crawl west D8563C12-55AC-4F3E-9E5B-B2D139E20839.jpeg
 
It’s showing a weaker system in the models right? If it were to intensify could that change track at all?


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GFS so far : Ridge is crawling west, but so is 99L, little weakness over the Bahamas giving it some space to crawl towards, lowering heights to its East but may not be enough
 
Goodness gracious, GFS has a 597 dm ridge that develops at hour 192, that’s incredible for the end of September/early October, it’s gonna bake under that
 
With that SE ridge, it’ll go straight to TX or Mexico. Won’t help with SE drought
 
The 18Z EPS 51 members have about 25% of its members as full fledged TCs. Most of those 25% are stuck at the end of the run and in a potentially threatening position with regard to the SE US. I see only 2 of 13 99L related TCs that as of the end of the run (144 hours) that would appear to not have a chance to come back to the US. These 2 are on the far right of the attached 132 hour map. So, there’s a big difference right now vs Jerry, which was a pretty easy recurve from the start in my mind. 99L is not. But there’s much more uncertainty regarding the actual genesis vs Jerry being a certainty.

The one TC that is on the SE FL coast then is actually from Jerry:
736B7E18-E96D-4CB5-885F-43AA26E1CB6E.png
 
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Special TWO, Code RED

Updated: A strong tropical wave, accompanied by a broad low pressure
area located between Barbados and Tobago, is producing showers and
thunderstorms that are showing signs of organization. In addition,
recent satellite-derived surface wind data and observations from
Barbados indicate that the disturbance is producing winds to near
tropical storm force in the eastern portion of the system. Further
development of this disturbance is expected over the next couple of
days, and a tropical depression or tropical storm will likely form
while it moves westward and then northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
across the Windward Islands and over the eastern Caribbean Sea. The
system is then expected to turn northward, moving near Puerto Rico
and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall and strong gusty winds are likely over much of the Lesser
Antilles during the next couple of days and will likely spread
across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands by Monday night or
Tuesday. Interests across the eastern Caribbean should monitor the
progress of this disturbance since tropical storm watches and
warnings could be required for portions of the Lesser Antilles and
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
 
CANT WAIT TO SEE WHAT THE EURO SHOWS. THE 12Z HAS IT AT 973MB AND TICKING WEST AFTER AN EAST MOVE
 
Still to early in the game, but the last 3 gfs runs has trended east. Now 99L scrapes the east coast on this run. My bet is that it never hits the US.
 
Cmc also probably never hits the US. East of the gfs
 
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