Pattern June 2024

[GaWx]

Check this out for something fascinating at Augusta, GA (Bush):

-noon was 93 with a dewpoint of 76 on a SE wind at 9

-1PM was 99 with a dewpoint way down at 58 on a SW wind at 13 gusting to 22!!

That’s a heck of a boundary, a dry line of sorts that went through Augusta last hour! And it came in on SW winds!

@Stormsfury

 

[SD]

Rdu is going to end up close to breaking the all time record

 

[tractor girl]

98.5 in Athens GA

 

[iGRXY]

The computer understands

 

[Makeitsnow]

98.5 in Athens GA

99 here on the truck temp off Milledge. Sickening but at least its a dry heat with dews in the upper 50s but that changes after today. Hopefully we can finally score though in the rain department. Everything is burned to a crisp.

 

[EmersonGA]

Topped out at 97.3 with dews bouncing around the 60s all day.

 

[Metwannabe]

100.8 on the Tempest, maybe it's off but it's bone dry and my land is sandy soil, so it's believable to a degree

 

[tractor girl]

I was noticing that yesterday, at least it's relatively dry out. Fingers crossed on some rain tomorrow afternoon/night

 

[ILMRoss]

we mixing down moist parcels here in richmond

99 over 68

 

[cyclogent]

100/63 in Chattanooga as of 3:15. Probably gonna end up maxing at 102.

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

100/63 in Chattanooga as of 3:15. Probably gonna end up maxing at 102.

Dewpoints are actually lower in Atlanta. However, it's cooler in Atlanta. I always thought lower dewpoints helps warm it up more.

 

[GaWx]

Here is the 6Z HRRR temperature map for 19Z (3PM EDT) tomorrow showing many non-mountain/non-coastal locations of VA/NC/SC/GA 101-104:
View attachment 148119

Here is the 6Z HRRR dewpoint map for the same hour showing the same locations with 43-58 dewpoints:
View attachment 148120

Comparing to NWS forecasts, these HRRR temperatures are several degrees hotter and dewpoints are significantly cooler. The HRRR dewpoints of 43-48 in the Charlotte, NC, to Macon/Columbus, GA, corridor look especially way too low. I’ll compare to reality tomorrow to see how well this HRRR run ends up verifying with temperatures/dewpoints in these 4 states’ non-mountain/non-coastal locations. I expect this run will verify with temperatures several degrees too hot most locations and dewpoints significantly too cool most locations.

The NWS, which wasn’t quite as hot and wasn’t nearly as dry vs HRRR, did better than the HRRR:

Verification of yesterday’s 6Z HRRR prog for temperature/dewpoint at 19Z/3PM EDT today:

Richmond, VA: HRRR 103/52 vs actual 99/68

Raleigh, NC: HRRR 100/61 vs actual 96/66

Charlotte, NC: HRRR 102/48 vs actual 98/63

Columbia, SC: HRRR 103/58 vs actual 100/60

Florence, SC: HRRR 99/64 vs actual 94/73

Atlanta, GA: HRRR 101/45 vs actual 95/55

Augusta, GA: HRRR 103/46 vs actual 99/52

Brunswick, GA: HRRR 96/66 vs actual 91/78



Summary for 8 cities:

-HRRR was too hot for all 8 with avg miss of +4.4 with range of +3 (Columbia) to +6 (Atlanta)

-HRRR was too dry for all 8 with avg dewpoint miss of -9.4 with range -2 (Columbia) to -16 (Richmond)



3PM data sources:

GA https://kamala.cod.edu/ga/latest.asus42.FFC.KFFC.html

SC https://kamala.cod.edu/sc/latest.asus42.CAE.KCAE.html

NC

RWR from KRAH

VA

RWR from KAKQ

 

[SASQUATCH]

#Winning

 

[ILMRoss]

Dewpoints are actually lower in Atlanta. However, it's cooler in Atlanta. I always thought lower dewpoints helps warm it up more.

typically it's the other way around. all other things being equal in a hot, dry airmass like this, higher temps can mean a thicker thicker boundary layer and lower dews since drier air is getting mixed down

 

[Downeastnc]

Come on sea breeze....



I can see it from the porch just need it to come another 20 miles

 

[GoDuke]

Hottest I can remember in a while.

 

[superjames1992]

Looks like RDU hit 102 today.

Somehow, we are 5+ degrees warmer than Fayetteville and Greensboro.

 

[Makeitsnow]

100.8 on the Tempest, maybe it's off but it's bone dry and my land is sandy soil, so it's believable to a degree

Reached a high of 101.7 on my ws 2000..and confirmed by 2 other sensors. .but i haven't had much of any rain in weeks. Dry as a bone. Athens also got to 100.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

99F today In concord. As usual no rain

 

[Metwannabe]

Looks like RDU hit 102 today.

Somehow, we are 5+ degrees warmer than Fayetteville and Greensboro.

Actually 103