Pattern June 2024

[GaWx]

Here is the 6Z HRRR temperature map for 19Z (3PM EDT) tomorrow showing many non-mountain/non-coastal locations of VA/NC/SC/GA 101-104:


Here is the 6Z HRRR dewpoint map for the same hour showing the same locations with 43-58 dewpoints:


Comparing to NWS forecasts, these HRRR temperatures are several degrees hotter and dewpoints are significantly cooler. The HRRR dewpoints of 43-48 in the Charlotte, NC, to Macon/Columbus, GA, corridor look especially way too low. I’ll compare to reality tomorrow to see how well this HRRR run ends up verifying with temperatures/dewpoints in these 4 states’ non-mountain/non-coastal locations. I expect this run will verify with temperatures several degrees too hot most locations and dewpoints significantly too cool most locations.

 

[NCSNOW]

Have to admit it felt not just good, but great outside last night and this morning. Hard to beat, especially for the last week of June.

 

[Tarheel1]

The winter sucked summer sucks... What's next

Fabulous fall, with the MJO in phases 8,1,2 through October!
Currently 80/76 DP. Somebody tell CAE come get their air!

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

If this Sunday Monday deal doesn’t work out the writing may be on the wall. Might take a tropical system to get the monkey off our back. Leaves are wilting pretty bad here. Fescue has turned to dust. Zoysia is all but dead. Need it like we haven’t needed it in a long long time

 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

My area is actually still pretty good, but then Ive had over 400 in of rain the past 6 years and nearly 40 this year so I'm good with a dry spell for a change. However; not liking this extended heat that show no signs of abatement

 

[SD]

Thursday could be a huge rain day if we dont jump the prefrontal trough to the beaches with the ofb from the Wednesday night convection across the mid Atlantic.

 

[weatherfide]

96 at my house and not a cloud anywhere. Sizzling! Dewpoint is 65.7 and RH is 37%.

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

96 at my house and not a cloud anywhere. Sizzling! Dewpoint is 65.7 and RH is 37%.

I don't think that 65.7 dewpoint is accurate. I'm seeing dewpoints in the 40s in Newnan.

 

[weatherfide]

I don't think that 65.7 dewpoint is accurate. I'm seeing dewpoints in the 40s in Newnan.

Tempest

Tempest Weather System

tempestwx.com

Yes, Tempest map shows some 50 degree dewpoints in the Newnan area. Around my area, 61 to 65 is common. I don't know how accurate the Tempest sensor is to dewpoint.

 

[Downeastnc]

Dewpoint dropped to 55 here on a east to se wind which is odd this time of year...

 

[Chazwin]

Here is the 6Z HRRR temperature map for 19Z (3PM EDT) tomorrow showing many non-mountain/non-coastal locations of VA/NC/SC/GA 101-104:
View attachment 148119

Here is the 6Z HRRR dewpoint map for the same hour showing the same locations with 43-58 dewpoints:
View attachment 148120

Comparing to NWS forecasts, these HRRR temperatures are several degrees hotter and dewpoints are significantly cooler. The HRRR dewpoints of 43-48 in the Charlotte, NC, to Macon/Columbus, GA, corridor look especially way too low. I’ll compare to reality tomorrow to see how well this HRRR run ends up verifying with temperatures/dewpoints in these 4 states’ non-mountain/non-coastal locations. I expect this run will verify with temperatures several degrees too hot most locations and dewpoints significantly too cool most locations.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but hasn’t the HRRR had a bias to mix out dewpoints way to much?

 

[GaWx]

Correct me if I’m wrong, but hasn’t the HRRR had a bias to mix out dewpoints way to much?

I don’t know as this is the first time I’ve ever looked at HRRR dewpoints. But it wouldn’t surprise me looking at that map with 40s dewpoints from Columbus to Charlotte. The GFS at least appears to have that bias on sunny summer afternoons in the SE.

Regardless, those are some unusually low late June dewpoints in much of the E US. Not here though where we have very muggy upper 70s!

 

[Chazwin]

I don’t know as this is the first time I’ve ever looked at HRRR dewpoints. But it wouldn’t surprise me looking at that map with 40s dewpoints from Columbus to Charlotte. The GFS at least appears to have that bias on sunny summer afternoons in the SE.

Regardless, those are some unusually low late June dewpoints in much of the E US. Not here though where we have very muggy upper 70s!

I just went and looked back and the HRRR has definitely been wanting to mix out dewpoints too much. For example yesterday’s 12z run of the HRRR was putting my dewpoint right now at 60 and it’s currently at 68, which is a noticeable improvement over the last several days in the mid 70s.

 

[Shaggy]

Dewpoint dropped to 55 here on a east to se wind which is odd this time of year...

We also have the east wind which helped drop the temp from 91 down to 87 but DP stayed elevated

 

[cyclogent]

 

[SD]

View attachment 148129

Not sure snow would stick to the roads tonight

 

[SD]

Correct me if I’m wrong, but hasn’t the HRRR had a bias to mix out dewpoints way to much?

Yes big time

 

[Broken024]

It’s hot. That’s all.

 

[TileDude]

Birmingham made it to 101 today.

 

[Metwannabe]

Not sure snow would stick to the roads tonight

Yeah rates will not overcome