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Pattern June 2023 Thread

Level 1 risk for severe storms around here tomorrow. Would be more fun to get some storms instead of just having a dreary day like today.
 
Looks like our first round of big heat is coming starting Thursday in SW parts of the region then spreading east as we get out first heat release into the region. May see 100+ in parts of Ms, AL, TN. In the Carolinas and GA it will be a little subdued into the mid 90s
 
SD said:
Looks like our first round of big heat is coming starting Thursday in SW parts of the region then spreading east as we get out first heat release into the region. May see 100+ in parts of Ms, AL, TN. In the Carolinas and GA it will be a little subdued into the mid 90s
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NWS is forecasting 100 in Macon and Columbus, GA on Friday.
 
Snowlover87 said:
NWS is forecasting 100 in Macon and Columbus, GA on Friday.
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It's not impossible. There's a lot of upstream activity though that may send debris clouds or remnant mcs into the area Thursday-Saturday that may hold temps in local areas back. I think the bust potential especially Friday is for forecasts to be too high. Saturday we have warmer 850s moving in in the mid levels, that would imo be the better day for areas of S GA to hit 100
 
SD said:
It's not impossible. There's a lot of upstream activity though that may send debris clouds or remnant mcs into the area Thursday-Saturday that may hold temps in local areas back. I think the bust potential especially Friday is for forecasts to be too high. Saturday we have warmer 850s moving in in the mid levels, that would imo be the better day for areas of S GA to hit 100
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Do you think there's a bigger bust potential on Thursday or Friday ? Temps are forecast to be near 100 also on Thursday in parts of GA.
 
Snowlover87 said:
Do you think there's a bigger bust potential on Thursday or Friday ? Temps are forecast to be near 100 also on Thursday in parts of GA.
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It's hard to say. You can see how these little areas ride through the flow on the gfs. Timing and amplitude right now are almost impossibletl to pin downgfs_z500_vort_seus_fh78-138.gif
 
SD said:
It's hard to say. You can see how these little areas ride through the flow on the gfs. Timing and amplitude right now are almost impossibletl to pin downView attachment 135560
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Someone may very well see some very strong to severe storms where these things go. Storms would certainly have a ton of instability to work with. Like you said it's impossible to pin down anything this far out, but I think someone will get nailed and seeing how things have gone so far it could be a high end threat.
 
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