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Pattern June’s Drought Dialogues

I got the garbage covered. Checked the JMA and the Spire and the NAVGEM. NAVGEM was thiiiiiiiis close, but no dice on the 600.
 
Picked up a very welcome .28" this afternoon. That'll help us out next week.

Kinda surprised to see the coastal plains running so hot in the models with an easterly fetch in NC/SC. Our hottest weather usually comes with a stiff west wind that pins the seabreeze from coming inland. Unless I'm missing something this pattern looks like it'll send the seabreeze in ~100 miles every afternoon.
 
ChrisAMB said:
Picked up a very welcome .28" this afternoon. That'll help us out next week.

Kinda surprised to see the coastal plains running so hot in the models with an easterly fetch in NC/SC. Our hottest weather usually comes with a stiff west wind that pins the seabreeze from coming inland. Unless I'm missing something this pattern looks like it'll send the seabreeze in ~100 miles every afternoon.
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We have been taking one step forward and get a couple inches but then take 2 steps back and go 10.days without a drop. Wilmington area approaching a 5 inch deficit and with the next week's heat we are gonna bake the ground hard.

Screenshot_20250620_204346_Gallery.jpg
 
Gonna be like a blast furnace the next 2 days! Or a convection oven with all the wind! IMG_1434.png
 
Brent said:
Heat index of 85 at 7am 🔥 low was only 80 that I can find


And this isn't even a big heat wave here really. The humidity is what is killing us
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Brent said:
Heat index of 85 at 7am 🔥 low was only 80 that I can find


And this isn't even a big heat wave here really. The humidity is what is killing us
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No big heatwave expected down here either but RH has been and will continue to be awful.
At least you have good winds to make the RH more tolerable vs light winds here.
 
Meanwhile on the ring of fire around the heat

The NWS says a private weather station near Luverne, North Dakota clocked a gust of 111 mph around 12:45 a.m. Saturday and gusts reached 80-90 mph for more than an hour in Jamestown.

Sounds like there was a derecho into Minnesota easily over 100 mph winds in multiple locations
 
GFS is slightly less intense than the euro, and the EPS definitely knocks it down a category or two. Still looks miserable but not historic. Looks to go back to more seasonable look as we head into early July; who knows, maybe that will feel "pleasant." Gonna be a tough 7-10 days not matter how we slice it.
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
GFS is slightly less intense than the euro, and the EPS definitely knocks it down a category or two. Still looks miserable but not historic. Looks to go back to more seasonable look as we head into early July; who knows, maybe that will feel "pleasant." Gonna be a tough 7-10 days not matter how we slice it.
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Looks like the dews will mix out into the low 60s which would keep the index lower.
 
weather bubba said:
Here are the GFS highs for the peak of the coming heat wave at RDU:

6/24 102
6/25 103
6/26 104
6/27 101
6/28 101
6/29 101

If this were to come to fruition this would probably be the longest streak of 100 degree and above
weather in RDU history.
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Six in a row would break the June record of 4 in a row set in 2008 and tie the alltime record of 6 set in July of 2012!

A 104 would tie with 6/27/1954 and be just behind 105 on 6/29-30/2012 for the hottest for June!

IMG_3810.jpeg
 
GaWx said:
12Z Euro RDU highs:

6/21: 90 (already hit 91 though)
6/22: 95
6/23: 101
6/24: 102
6/25: 104
6/26: 102
6/27: 100
6/28: 98
6/29: 97
6/30: 97

View attachment 173163
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Factoring in the RDU daytime warm bias over the past month of 4.2 F (https://weather.gladstonefamily.net/site/KRDU), these are probably underdone by several degrees just like today as you mentioned.

Screenshot 2025-06-21 at 4.31.40 PM.png

Euro 850 mb temps of 17C would approx. yield a surface temp of 90F today, but it is already likely going to be 93 or even 94 today. Tuesday is going to be comical.
 
SD said:
Heatwave killer View attachment 173170
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That is an interesting feature and it would break the heatwave for eastern sections of GA, SC and NC. After a scorching week of record and near record temperatures it would be nice if this pushes close enough to the southeast coast to give inland areas a break from the heat for the coming weekend.
 
GaWx said:
6Z GFS/Euro at RDU: not as horrible as yesterday’s 12Z lengthwise but still bad enough

6/23: 101/101
6/24: 104/102
6/25: 96/101
6/26: 94/98
6/27: 96/98
6/28: 95/(0Z Euro 94)
6/29: 95/(0Z Euro 96)
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The Euro was too hot here during the first heat wave in May i remember. People were posting temps of 105 in Texas and it didn't even hit 100 in most areas

🤔 Something to watch anyway
 
1300m said:
Factoring in the RDU daytime warm bias over the past month of 4.2 F (https://weather.gladstonefamily.net/site/KRDU), these are probably underdone by several degrees just like today as you mentioned.

View attachment 173165

Euro 850 mb temps of 17C would approx. yield a surface temp of 90F today, but it is already likely going to be 93 or even 94 today. Tuesday is going to be comical.
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Indeed, RDU ended up with a high of 93 yesterday vs yesterday’s 12Z Euro forecast of only 90! OTOH, Greensboro’s high of only 88 was actually two lower than the 12Z’s Euro’s 90. Fayetteville’s high of 92 was 1F higher than the Euro’s 91.


So, based on this and the analysis you posted about the sensor often being several degrees too warm, the RDU sensor actually has a decent chance to get within 1-2 of their alltime high of 106!! Hopefully not though.
 
KATL is also looking brutal on the 6Zs this week with these highs: (GFS/Euro)

6/22: 96/91
6/23: 99/95
6/24: 103/102
6/25: 101/104
6/26: 94/96
6/27: 96/87

Currently FFC has ATL’s hottest on 6/25 with upper 90s, but they’re watching closely.
 
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SD said:
Gong to be the mid summer i didn't have a watch but got a severe storm pattern this week. High dcapes, tall storms, high microburst potential, probably prolific lightning producers too
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The 12z GFS is definitely reflecting this possibility in central and western NC. Showing big heat but also storm complexes moving through overnight Monday and Tuesday. The rest of the week also looks hot but chance of pop up storms contines and high temps don't look to exceed any records
 
Bannerdude2 said:
The 12z GFS is definitely reflecting this possibility in central and western NC. Showing big heat but also storm complexes moving through overnight Monday and Tuesday. The rest of the week also looks hot but chance of pop up storms contines and high temps don't look to exceed any records
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The NWS in Raleigh is downplaying this saying the the heat dome that will be over the area is too strong and will supress thunderstorm development. Anyone who does see a pop up thunderstorm is liable to see a strong or even severe thunderstorm with the parameters that the GFS is showing.
 
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