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Pattern July Fry

The regular EURO was close to this and has it farther east in the plains although it is farther out in time.
 
Official max temps the last 7 days at the Chattanooga airport:
90, 91, 94, 96, 98, 99, 100.
Today's 100 broke a record for today's date (99 on 7/2/2024) and is the hottest temp in nearly 2 years here (100 on 8/30/2024)
 
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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I push mowed the backyard first thing this morning and had to change clothes before going to work 🥵

Headed to Kill Devil Hills at 5am sharp tmrw morning. @Rain Cold can you meet me in East Raleigh with a 6 pack of Gatorade, bag of ice and a large order of Bo-rounds? 🙏🏽
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Haha no chance man. I will be here in the cool 101 mountain air.
 
ILM is keeping us under 100 officially as far out as they go so that's a small plus.

Definitely gonna be forgoing a few goodies this month and picking up a spare 5,000 BTU window unit tomorrow. Usually around day 3 of these heat waves we start having scattered power issues.
 
Both Euro models still have this crazy ridge, but they do keep it out west with only a piece of it coming our way. We look to be mostly in a northwest flow pattern in the long range so if this happens, we will probably be in the ring of fire with some serious storms.
 
Oh boy, the 6z GFS has the ridge farther east with 597 dm heights over us at least for a while. Hopefully it'll back off. The 600 dm ridge is still there too and coming farther east on that model.
 
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JHS said:
Oh boy, the 6z GFS has the ridge farther east with 597 dm heights over us at least for a while. Hopefully it'll back off. The 600 dm ridge is still there too and coming farther east on that model.
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Once again the GFS (6Z) is way too hot in the extended. Even if H5 reaches the near record high upper 590s as it has, highs on July 14-15th will not reach anywhere near as hot as this shows even with the drought:

6Z GFS July 14th highs: for example 112 at SAV is loltastic as that’s compared to the 105 all-time hottest on record there back 155 years!
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6Z GFS July 15th highs:
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GaWx said:
Once again the GFS (6Z) is way too hot in the extended. Even if H5 reaches the near record high upper 590s as it has, highs on July 14-15th will not reach anywhere near as hot as this shows even with the drought:

6Z GFS July 14th highs: for example 112 at SAV is loltastic as that’s compared to the 105 all-time hottest on record there back 155 years!
View attachment 196658

6Z GFS July 15th highs:
View attachment 196659
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Idk it does pull in some 27-29c 850s that's pretty toasty and there are some eps members around 110 then. I'm not sold on it but that big heat ridge does put us in a position to gobble a big heat release
 
SD said:
Idk it does pull in some 27-29c 850s that's pretty toasty and there are some eps members around 110 then. I'm not sold on it but that big heat ridge does put us in a position to gobble a big heat release
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Wow 27-29 at 850. That's scary. I only looked at 500 MB so am just now seeing those maps. They may very well verify with those 850 temps. I'm not sure they have been that high here before, even in 2012.
 
GFS is basically population control because that's what it would be if it actually got that hot and we had power grid issues.

In reality it won't be anything like that, especially with an onshore flow to some degree.
 
12”+ of rain in my county last night! Very localized training and thunder and lightning for about 4 hours straight! IMG_5907.jpegIMG_5906.jpeg
 
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At 1:40 told me that she was in one of the worst popup thunderstorms she’s ever experienced driving with high winds, very heavy rain, and small hail in Buckhead near Roswell Rd! Temps suddenly plunged from a sunny 90s to 72 on her car therm! It ended aboit as fast as it started.
 
Looks like a pretty good consensus that the ridge is no longer closed and stacked by this tomorrow. Should have better storm coverage outside of the areas getting smoked today
 
Rain Cold said:
It's hellhot. Like it's really miserable to walk around outside. At least we got a strong historic Biblical Nino to save us from cold and snow this winter. 🥲
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This heatwave is not behaving like they usually do for some reason. Augusta and Columbia usually lead the way, but not with this one. This heatwave seems to be favoring the Carolina foothills and western piedmont. Raleigh and Fayetteville in NC are doing their usual thing it seems though.
 
RDU recorded a high of 101 today. We'll see how high the temperature gets tomorrow during what might be the peak of this heatwave. The rainfall forecast from now until the middle of the month doesn't look too promising which is what concerns me. A friend of mine who restores and repairs boats as a side gig has had plenty of business lately due to the low lake levels at Jordan Lake and people hitting stumps and objects that are normally covered by higher water levels.
 
JHS said:
It's hard to get the ring of fire when the ridge is over you. There are signs we may get into a ring of fire pattern later in the month though.
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Not impossible but kinda late in the year for what we typically think of a summer NW flow pattern. July historically is pop up storms with an occasional cutoff low enhancement.
 
weather bubba said:
RDU recorded a high of 101 today. We'll see how high the temperature gets tomorrow during what might be the peak of this heatwave. The rainfall forecast from now until the middle of the month doesn't look too promising which is what concerns me. A friend of mine who restores and repairs boats as a side gig has had plenty of business lately due to the low lake levels at Jordan Lake and people hitting stumps and objects that are normally covered by higher water levels.
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Cutting grass in the AM and moving hay immediately after. What a lovely time of year.
 
7/3/2026

100° - High
71° - Dewy
106° - Stupid

Finding it more difficult to stay positive.
 
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