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Pattern July Fry and Dry

weather bubba said:
Folks, I'm no fan of the heat myself. Late July does look to be hot though which is fitting being that it is the warmest time of year climatologically speaking. Hopefully things will not be as hot as that model screenshot I posted.
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It’s ok. Eventually the heat will be defeated as the nights continue to grow longer. Average temps start slowly going down in the next 2 weeks or so.
 
GaWx said:
Thanks, Shane. But keep in mind that as JB has been emphasizing, the models have been too hot and dry in the S Plains, where this EPS has the upper high.

Edit: And then there’s the added uncertainty of Dexter forming and possibly moving into TX, which the EPS has almost no signal for. That could easily increase uncertainty even further.
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It looks like mjo phases 5/6 flip anomalies in July with a trough moving from the PNW to the NE and a ridge retrograding from the E/SE to the intermountain west or WC. This pattern reminds me a little of the heat wave last month with how it sets up and potentially progresses
 
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Any of you outdoor fans of the F.A.T.S. Trail system in the Sumter Forrest. (Augusta etc) been there since Helene? We hiked 7 miles two days ago and just rode the MTB for 15 and it's totally changed. Very little shade. Blazing hot. Microclimate change has got to be real in situations like this.

Plus, I'm sure there have been studies of all the fuel laying on the ground in the form of 1000's of pine trees. The trails have shifted. Run off is much higher....fascinating study I would assume.
 
So GSPs all time consecutive 90 degree day streak is 38 from 1993. It is currently at 25 (which ties the 5th longest streak ever). The point and click for tomorrow showed 89 so we'll see, but if it hits 90 tomorrow GSP may well break that record just looking ahead. Shoot, even CAE had an 88 thrown in there earlier this month. These are not the kinds of records I like to be gunning for.
 
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Iceagewhereartthou said:
So GSPs all time consecutive 90 degree day streak is 38 from 1993. It is currently at 25 (which ties the 5th longest streak ever). The point and click for tomorrow showed 89 so we'll see, but if it hits 90 tomorrow GSP may well break that record just looking ahead. Shoot, even CAE had an 88 thrown in there earlier this month. These are not the kinds of records I like to be gunning for.
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That record is going to fall. The rest of summer and into November is going to be just like 2016 I'm afraid. Hot and dry. When you get 10+ storms within 10 miles of you and still miss you know it'll take a HUGE event for us to get rain again. Yes, we had that many storms that close today and not 1 drop. It did not even cool off here.
 
Today had a very tropical feel and look here thanks to the deep onshore flow to the north of Invest 93L coming in from several hundreds of miles offshore. How deep? It was at least to way up at 200 mb, which is near 40,000 feet! And this is expected to continue for much of the rest of this week. It is fairly rare that this far north experiences that deep of a tropical flow for that long of an uninterrupted period.

This deep tropical flow:
-gave us a constant pleasant ESE 10-15 mph breeze with gusts to over 20
-wind coming off the ocean kept the highs in the BN upper 80s but also kept dewpoints in the mid 70s
-the skies much of the day had a tropical paradise look of towering cumulus coming off of the ocean mixed with deep blue
-isolated showers came off of the ocean moving at a brisk pace and tended to diminish as they went more inland (I had no rainfall today)
 
Every day this week we've had storms pop up just 10 miles west or south or north or east. Not a single drop here. Micro drought!! 💀
 
GaWx said:
Today had a very tropical feel and look here thanks to the deep onshore flow to the north of Invest 93L coming in from several hundreds of miles offshore. How deep? It was at least to way up at 200 mb, which is near 40,000 feet! And this is expected to continue for much of the rest of this week. It is fairly rare that this far north experiences that deep of a tropical flow for that long of an uninterrupted period.

This deep tropical flow:
-gave us a constant pleasant ESE 10-15 mph breeze with gusts to over 20
-wind coming off the ocean kept the highs in the BN upper 80s but also kept dewpoints in the mid 70s
-the skies much of the day had a tropical paradise look of towering cumulus coming off of the ocean mixed with deep blue
-isolated showers came off of the ocean moving at a brisk pace and tended to diminish as they went more inland (I had no rainfall today)
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Yeah, I just said in the banter thread that it honestly wasn't that bad today even where I am a couple hours from the ocean. Especially in the evening with the sun lower.

I felt that breeze myself, but no thunderstorms too.

Taking a closer look at my forecast, there's going to be southeast winds again tomorrow and then south winds for the rest of the week.
 
A pretty fast moving small shower has moved NW from offshore to here on the NE side of Invest 93L. There may be more to come within the next couple of hours.
 
BHS1975 said:
This is what July used to be vs now. I just noticed the new all time record high was set last year at 106.
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These tables confirm that the climate is getting warmer as time goes by. I think there are several factors that play into this but the main one in the KRDU area is that this area is becoming an urban heat island due to the rampant development that has happened during the past forty years or so. Outlying areas are on average around three to five degrees cooler with their temperature readings.

I would take that record high of 106 with a grain of salt. The positioning of the temperature sensor at the airport has been questioned due to its tendency to run well above surrounding readings. I wish the National Weather Service would move its temperature sensor out to the meteorology school at N.C. State.
 
weather bubba said:
I was thinking about going down that way to do a little fishing this weekend. I may have to reconsider. If I wanted conditions like that, I might as well find me a hot tub.
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I went last week down to Johnny Mercer and caught some Steve's head but it's pretty hot they are starting to catch some drum off the pier so might not be a bad hustle if you can put up with the heat
 
Shaggy said:
I went last week down to Johnny Mercer and caught some Steve's head but it's pretty hot they are starting to catch some drum off the pier so might not be a bad hustle if you can put up with the heat
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That sounds like some good advice. If I go, I'll make it an all nighter. I haven't pulled one of those in a long time.
 
weather bubba said:
That sounds like some good advice. If I go, I'll make it an all nighter. I haven't pulled one of those in a long time.
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Shaggy said:
For the record Johnny Mercer's closes at 11:00 I'm not sure about other fishing piers in the area
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I still get a kick when I read about Johnny Mercer’s pier. Until very recently I thought it was named after the famous songwriter from here.

No rain of consequence here the last 5 days after a very wet prior 5 days.
 
weather bubba said:
These tables confirm that the climate is getting warmer as time goes by. I think there are several factors that play into this but the main one in the KRDU area is that this area is becoming an urban heat island due to the rampant development that has happened during the past forty years or so. Outlying areas are on average around three to five degrees cooler with their temperature readings.

I would take that record high of 106 with a grain of salt. The positioning of the temperature sensor at the airport has been questioned due to its tendency to run well above surrounding readings. I wish the National Weather Service would move its temperature sensor out to the meteorology school at N.C. State.
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I would say it is accurate to describe the climate as having warmed over the past 50 years for most of us, but let's be accurate here. All these tables confirm is that July 1975 was much cooler than July 2024. July 1975 was likely an unusually cool July with only 5 days at 90 or above. We could probably look at this past January and compare it to an unusually warm Jan from way back; would that confirm a cooling climate?
 
EPS has PWs lowering toward the end of the period. That will be nice, if true.
 
I'm always fascinated by micro climates. I use to live a couple of miles from @WeatherNC And there were these fields between us that always ran colder than everywhere around. During the 2018 cold snap those fields had dropped to -4 and we both drove through and experienced that area.

Well now im.finding one here in Wilmington. I left work and was riding through town and my temp was 95. As I crossed the river to leland I cross a large expanse of marsh and the temp consistently runs a couple degrees higher there. Here the temp progression as I leave town drove over the marsh and get back over into brunswick county.
Screenshot_20250718_134842_Gallery.jpgScreenshot_20250718_134902_Gallery.jpgScreenshot_20250718_134926_Gallery.jpg
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
I would say it is accurate to describe the climate as having warmed over the past 50 years for most of us, but let's be accurate here. All these tables confirm is that July 1975 was much cooler than July 2024. July 1975 was likely an unusually cool July with only 5 days at 90 or above. We could probably look at this past January and compare it to an unusually warm Jan from way back; would that confirm a cooling climate?
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Here's 1976 which was a bit above normal for back then and still several degrees cooler for the lows. The lows have come up way more than the highs.

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