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Pattern Juggernaut June

All in on the rap
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SD said:
Someone broke the 12z nam
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Click to expand...
That looks like the Birdman of dumb, in house model!? ?
 
Nam and hrrr still give me rain today, so I guess I sit in a flood bubble while everyone else is in the desert
 
Anybody get any rain out of that line last night?
 
Gfs has been trying to form something in the western gulf in the med range
 
Update from GSP has increased their pops and say a watch may be issued! Game on!
 
So looks like round 2 is moving south through Tennessee right now. Meanwhile I’m also interested in this new feature developing near St. Louis. 303EB6C4-D1FA-4367-87CD-D760E3859323.png
 
Tarheel1 said:
Looks like some kind of wedge!? Here in Gaffney, winds are out of the East at 10-15, that doesn’t scream MCs incoming
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No wedge, likely a area with large T/DP depressions/mixed out BLs and some subsidence eating away the cape
No wind here, all calm 164BC804-C78F-4CBC-9725-C9578BEBA500.jpeg
 
Here is the SPC storm reports map from yesterday. Clear line of wind reports from about Nebraska all the way to the Atlantic. Just out of curiosity anyone think yesterday’s storm could be classified as a derecho?C52903E9-D7BD-438B-B95D-3D75645F8A10.png
 
BufordWX said:
Here is the SPC storm reports map from yesterday. Clear line of wind reports from about Nebraska all the way to the Atlantic. Just out of curiosity anyone think yesterday’s storm could be classified as a derecho?View attachment 20603
Click to expand...
I was also able to find the full radar loop of the MCS as well. I love watching these loops since you can see how the storm evolved over time as well.
 
Welp, the MCS in TN looks less impressive with time.

May have to rely on pop up storm from its outflow instead later on today.
 
They have no clue. From General thunder to enhanced risk within 2 counties
 
Dishonest service to the public because the news will flip flop with every update. I don’t understand if there is uncertainty then just use a bigger slight risk instead of trying to detail the fine lines..I’m about to call the SPC I wanna speak to a manager again
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Dishonest service to the public because the news will flip flop with every update. I don’t understand if there is uncertainty then just use a bigger slight risk instead of trying to detail the fine lines..I’m about to call the SPC I wanna speak to a manager again
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Lol the spc has manangers?
 
What’s this crap blowing up ahead of the line??EC7F51A5-E712-496D-B18F-EFEC60E21C72.png
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Dishonest service to the public because the news will flip flop with every update. I don’t understand if there is uncertainty then just use a bigger slight risk instead of trying to detail the fine lines..I’m about to call the SPC I wanna speak to a manager again
Click to expand...
Come on man ..... give it a rest. Please!
 
96A4333F-8E3A-49C6-818C-F961C639630D.gif
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and
intensity through early afternoon, gradually developing into
southeast-moving clusters of storms with a risk for damaging winds
and isolated large hail. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be
needed prior to 18Z/2 pm EDT.

DISCUSSION...a frontal boundary extends west from near the NC/SC
border at 1630Z into a remnant convective system over eastern TN. A
separate diffuse outflow boundary extended across southern SC west
across northeast GA. Downstream of the TN convective system,
substantial diabatic heating of a very moist air mass (upper
60s/lower 70s dew points) is underway. The region lies beneath the
eastern fringe of an EML that will contribute to strong
surface-based instability this afternoon with SBCAPE in excess of
2000 J/kg over much of the area.

As CINH continues to erode, thunderstorms are expected to
develop/increase in coverage this afternoon near the aforementioned
boundaries and along the leading edge of the convective system. The
combination of steep low-level lapse rates, water-loading in
updrafts and mid-level drying evident on forecast soundings will
result in a risk for damaging winds with the strongest storms.
Evolution towards southeast-moving clusters given 25-30 kts of
northwesterly mid-level flow is expected with time resulting in
corridors of more concentrated damaging wind risk. The combination
of strong low-level lapse rates and instability, boundary
interaction and tendency for upscale growth with time suggests some
potential for transient low-level circulations to develop, possibly
resulting in a brief tornado. Despite marginal deep-layer shear,
the steep mid-level lapse rates will also contribute to isolated
instances of large hail.

Convective trends are being monitored and a Severe Thunderstorm
Watch will likely be needed prior to 18Z.
 
BufordWX said:
View attachment 20606
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and
intensity through early afternoon, gradually developing into
southeast-moving clusters of storms with a risk for damaging winds
and isolated large hail. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be
needed prior to 18Z/2 pm EDT.

DISCUSSION...a frontal boundary extends west from near the NC/SC
border at 1630Z into a remnant convective system over eastern TN. A
separate diffuse outflow boundary extended across southern SC west
across northeast GA. Downstream of the TN convective system,
substantial diabatic heating of a very moist air mass (upper
60s/lower 70s dew points) is underway. The region lies beneath the
eastern fringe of an EML that will contribute to strong
surface-based instability this afternoon with SBCAPE in excess of
2000 J/kg over much of the area.

As CINH continues to erode, thunderstorms are expected to
develop/increase in coverage this afternoon near the aforementioned
boundaries and along the leading edge of the convective system. The
combination of steep low-level lapse rates, water-loading in
updrafts and mid-level drying evident on forecast soundings will
result in a risk for damaging winds with the strongest storms.
Evolution towards southeast-moving clusters given 25-30 kts of
northwesterly mid-level flow is expected with time resulting in
corridors of more concentrated damaging wind risk. The combination
of strong low-level lapse rates and instability, boundary
interaction and tendency for upscale growth with time suggests some
potential for transient low-level circulations to develop, possibly
resulting in a brief tornado. Despite marginal deep-layer shear,
the steep mid-level lapse rates will also contribute to isolated
instances of large hail.

Convective trends are being monitored and a Severe Thunderstorm
Watch will likely be needed prior to 18Z.
Click to expand...
Yep and it just got issued.
 
Another Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for North GA/AL (including Metro Atlanta and Birmingham) until 9pm.
 
We likely have had the worst heat but not the worst heat index. Today’s HI has been a saunalike 110, near highest in country! So, despite temps of 96 vs low 100s in late May, it actually feels worse today as the late May HIs were 105 or lower.
Thunder can be heard.
I wish I were in CO now!
 
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I'm in North Myrtle Beach until Friday. Under a severe storm watch until 9:00 tonight. Let's see if the Wake County dome followed me here.
 
Shetley got hammered, I got 0, seems right!!??
 
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