• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Juggernaut June

Last edited:
GaWx said:
Thanks. That lightning detector has been accurate as although I’ve gotten pretty good rain the last 15 minutes or so and the winds kicked up some, I’ve seen no lightning nor heard any thunder as your link’s map suggests for here.
Click to expand...
I try ... :cool:
 
Storms looking less likely as timing is now pushed back to around 10pm! What a crap fest! Here comes the drought!! Wait, the .009 I got today, will renew the water table!?
 
Tarheel1 said:
Storms looking less likely as timing is now pushed back to around 10pm! What a crap fest! Here comes the drought!! Wait, the .009 I got today, will renew the water table!
Click to expand...
Glad someone shares my sentiments. But drought never happens and it has up be hot for the pools!

In all seriousness though the upcoming pattern isn't ideal and if some areas continue to stay dry or receive low end totals its going to start turning brown again soon
Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
 
What a difference a month makes. I received a grand total of .77 rain the entire month of May (well up till around 8 pm on the 31st) but since then, including the storms on the night of the 31st, I've picked up 5.35. Always seems to be feast or famine and as @SD pointed out above probably about to head back to the famine side of things.
 
Last few HRRR runs have trended back toward the 18z and 00z of last night. More CAPE in place and has all of the remnant stuff down along the Gulf rapidly dying.

If this happens we could still see an impressive line today.12Z-20190624_HRRRSE_prec_radar-5-16-70-200.gif
 
Cape is outperforming HRRR.
Here is 13z cape vs the 10z hrrr prediction.

Even the 12z hrrr is behind in Eastern TN on cape.

This has major implications downstream into SC and NC as well as we need a line to survive the mountains to have a shot for you guys!
sbcp_sf.gifsbcape.us_ov.png

Given this disparity even in the 12z HRRR I would not be surprised at all to see the HRRR continue to trend toward a line over the next few runs.

Atmosphere is clearing rapidly and evolving in very similar fashion to the 18z and 00z runs. Cape is a little behind those runs but its much higher than the recent runs as well.
 
Last edited:
Enhanced Risk issued for extreme western North Carolina and north-east Tennessee.
 
Wouldn’t be surprised to see a lot of power outages...for northern mtns/foothills. Maybe Winston, Troutman and north Charlotte. Gusts to 55mph look easily achievable but some embedded 60-80mph from Mountain City TN to Elkin NC if the momentum off the mountain provides a local boost maxima. I would consider Enhanced Risk along and west of i77 but mostly north of Hickory.
 
BC2BC146-8401-49C3-B0D6-E24BCD253B0F.gif
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms with primarily a strong to
damaging wind threat may develop this afternoon. Watch issuance is
possible.

DISCUSSION...Storms should continue to strengthen across middle into
eastern TN this afternoon along a trailing boundary extending
southward from a MCV in western/central KY. It appears that
large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to an upper trough over the
mid MD Valley and Upper Midwest may only glance this region. Even
so, low-level convergence along the trailing outflow boundary should
prove sufficient for additional convective development over the next
couple of hours as MLCAPE increases into the 1000-2000 J/kg range
downstream. An unseasonably strong belt of 40-50 kt southwesterly
winds is present around 700 mb from middle/eastern TN into AL and
much of GA this afternoon per VWP estimates from area radars and 17Z
mesoanalysis. As diurnal mixing of the boundary layer continues
across this region, low-level lapse rates will steepen further.
Strong to damaging winds may occur with storms as the enhanced flow
present at 700 mb reaches the surface through convective downdrafts.
Relatively greater storm coverage is anticipated across
middle/eastern TN this afternoon in closer proximity to the upper
trough, although isolated development may also occur farther south
into northeastern AL and northern/central GA. A Severe Thunderstorm
Watch may eventually be needed this afternoon for some part of this
region depending on radar trends.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Wouldn’t be surprised to see a lot of power outages...for northern mtns/foothills. Maybe Winston, Troutman and north Charlotte. Gusts to 55mph look easily achievable but some embedded 60-80mph from Mountain City TN to Elkin NC if the momentum off the mountain provides a local boost maxima. I would consider Enhanced Risk along and west of i77 but mostly north of Hickory.
Click to expand...

Not to mention the fact that there is 3500 SB Cape on the lee side.

Any boundary blasting through will have PLENTY of energy to work with
 
BufordWX said:
View attachment 20635
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms with primarily a strong to
damaging wind threat may develop this afternoon. Watch issuance is
possible.

DISCUSSION...Storms should continue to strengthen across middle into
eastern TN this afternoon along a trailing boundary extending
southward from a MCV in western/central KY. It appears that
large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to an upper trough over the
mid MD Valley and Upper Midwest may only glance this region. Even
so, low-level convergence along the trailing outflow boundary should
prove sufficient for additional convective development over the next
couple of hours as MLCAPE increases into the 1000-2000 J/kg range
downstream. An unseasonably strong belt of 40-50 kt southwesterly
winds is present around 700 mb from middle/eastern TN into AL and
much of GA this afternoon per VWP estimates from area radars and 17Z
mesoanalysis. As diurnal mixing of the boundary layer continues
across this region, low-level lapse rates will steepen further.
Strong to damaging winds may occur with storms as the enhanced flow
present at 700 mb reaches the surface through convective downdrafts.
Relatively greater storm coverage is anticipated across
middle/eastern TN this afternoon in closer proximity to the upper
trough, although isolated development may also occur farther south
into northeastern AL and northern/central GA. A Severe Thunderstorm
Watch may eventually be needed this afternoon for some part of this
region depending on radar trends.
Click to expand...
Great! There goes my chance of rain ???
 
Whar a blockbuster! A0B767F2-AAE7-4B93-8BCF-B1168AEEDA89.png
 
pcbjr said:
Just in case someone needs a grin ...


View attachment 20638
Click to expand...
I was in Orlando last week and there was actually a cool day (last Wednesday) before the heat came on. Was nice to actually be outside without the 100+ degree heat index lol.
 
Last edited:
GaStorm said:
I was in Orlando last week and there was actually a cool day (last Wednesday) before the heat came on. Was nice to actually be outside without the 100+ degree heat index lol.
Click to expand...
"Like", except please do not confuse me with Orlando (or Whorelando to be more precise) ... that place is a whole 'nother world, and climate ... :cool:
 
Last edited:
I’m liking the look of things to my west right now. If that line west of Atlanta right now continues to strengthen it might be an interesting evening around here.

Edit: Severe thunderstorm warning just got issued to my west. Also interestingly, no watch has been issued here so far, so according to some it might be crush city here tonight.:D
 
Last edited:
Curious why the watch is until 1am when it looks like only this line of storms is going to go by. Is there more data that says it could produce more? Just curious and I hope its not as crazy windy as yesterday!

Edited: I mean for GA, not NC and SC, I get why they need it until 1am.
 
gaikkeb said:
Curious why the watch is until 1am when it looks like only this line of storms is going to go by. Is there more data that says it could produce more? Just curious and I hope its not as crazy windy as yesterday!

Edited: I mean for GA, not NC and SC, I get why they need it until 1am.
Click to expand...
It will almost surely be canceled early. Watches are gradually cancelled as the severe weather passes. 1 AM will be when the part of the watch that is still active will expire.
 
BufordWX said:
It will almost surely be canceled early. Watches are gradually cancelled as the severe weather passes. 1 AM will be when the part of the watch that is still active will expire.
Click to expand...

Ok, thanks for the info! I usually see that happening but it always makes me wonder! Just heard the first rumble here and its gotten REALLY dark out!
 
Well FML. Got a clean split here.

Just some outflow winds and a somewhat decent shelf cloud.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top