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Pattern Juggernaut June

SouthATLwx said:
Don't see these type of dews often...

View attachment 20583

View attachment 20584

View attachment 20585
Click to expand...
There is some crazy CAPE out there too.
sbcp.gif
 
Watch incoming!
127F07DC-44F9-40F6-839B-6866FBC84A18.gif

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Damaging wind potential will likely persist into the
overnight hours and a downstream severe thunderstorm watch is likely
to the south/southeast of WW 419.

DISCUSSION...A bow echo continues to shift east/southeast across
KY/TN this evening. Western portions of this line continue to weaken
as outflow surges southward ahead of the line into northern MS. It
remains unclear how far south and east the bow echo will continue,
however, a strong cold pool remains in the wake of the line and
ample MLCAPE remains southeast of the line from middle/eastern TN
into AL/GA before decreasing toward the western Carolinas. The
latest VWP from OHX does indicate some weakening of the rear-inflow
jet compared to 1-2 hours ago, but still showing 50-60 kt between
1-3 km ARL. The most recent measured gusts have generally been
between 40-50 kt with many reports of trees down and other damage.
Given a favorable downstream environment where strong instability
and a very moist boundary layer persists beneath steep midlevel
lapse rates and modestly increasing deep layer shear overnight, some
threat for damaging wind is expected to extend into parts of
northern/central AL into northern GA and perhaps the western
Carolinas and a watch likely will be needed for at least some
portions of the MCD area in the next 1-2 hours.
 
I don’t think tonight’s line will be much to stay up for. Really need this to clear out and let the sun come out tomorrow for the line tmw afternoon.

IF there is A line that is.

MCS tonight getting that typical segmented look when they begin to decay. It’ll still be trucking for a while though
 
NAM/HRRR with the combo tommorow, I’m all in, lol jk, anyways if there right, wind damage would be possible with some boundary layer mixing but not enough to kill cape, some areas of drying aloft, and 1500-3000 jkg of SBcape, same thing applies to GA except y’all will have bigger cape thus more normalized cape and stronger updrafts, in NC it looks similar to Thursday, weaken on mountains, than the lee trough gets them going again and also the leftover boundary 8A6977B0-3802-4796-BD3E-82A565507850.png2CAFAA47-D897-4F6E-A8AB-91A2A3A37473.png
 
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 422
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1040 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2019

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
northeast Alabama
northern Georgia
western North Carolina
Upstate South Carolina

* Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 1040 PM
until 500 AM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorm activity is expected to be
maintained into the overnight hours along the southeastward
advancing, leading edge of cool outflow produced by the storms,
which may continue to be accompanied by a risk for potential
damaging wind gusts.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles west northwest
of Birmingham AL to 40 miles north of Athens GA. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 419...WW 420...WW 421...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
31035.

...Kerr
 
Fountainguy97 said:
I don’t think tonight’s line will be much to stay up for. Really need this to clear out and let the sun come out tomorrow for the line tmw afternoon.

IF there is A line that is.

MCS tonight getting that typical segmented look when they begin to decay. It’ll still be trucking for a while though
Click to expand...

There's been a significant downward trend with the lightning, as it continues to drift away from the better shear/forcing.

That being said, with such strong instability, I'd be surprised if it completely decays.
 
BufordWX said:
Watch incoming!
View attachment 20586

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Damaging wind potential will likely persist into the
overnight hours and a downstream severe thunderstorm watch is likely
to the south/southeast of WW 419.

DISCUSSION...A bow echo continues to shift east/southeast across
KY/TN this evening. Western portions of this line continue to weaken
as outflow surges southward ahead of the line into northern MS. It
remains unclear how far south and east the bow echo will continue,
however, a strong cold pool remains in the wake of the line and
ample MLCAPE remains southeast of the line from middle/eastern TN
into AL/GA before decreasing toward the western Carolinas. The
latest VWP from OHX does indicate some weakening of the rear-inflow
jet compared to 1-2 hours ago, but still showing 50-60 kt between
1-3 km ARL. The most recent measured gusts have generally been
between 40-50 kt with many reports of trees down and other damage.
Given a favorable downstream environment where strong instability
and a very moist boundary layer persists beneath steep midlevel
lapse rates and modestly increasing deep layer shear overnight, some
threat for damaging wind is expected to extend into parts of
northern/central AL into northern GA and perhaps the western
Carolinas and a watch likely will be needed for at least some
portions of the MCD area in the next 1-2 hours.
Click to expand...
The actual watch was smaller! I’m not even in it! ?
 
Winner!
204164A1-855C-48C2-B249-AEDE474AA627.png
 
Hmmm, t/dp depression will help out strong outflow winds, high LCLs may help with shelf clouds along with the mixed BL B8AB5F1E-4468-479F-AD90-7BC15605D732.jpeg6BAACF05-16DD-47E3-8A6C-E2A6FBB9527A.pngAD72AFD7-1B86-4E83-9C55-58F050AD45DC.png
 
BufordWX said:
Here we go. Severe thunderstorm warning issued here for 60 mph winds.View attachment 20593
Click to expand...
Looks to be about over here now. Rain was very limited with it once it got here, but the winds were fairly impressive. Probably had 50 mph gusts around here. I could here some small branches breaking in my backyard while I watched the storm and leaves were blowing everywhere.
 
Round 1= winning!!!?0E3069A2-893A-4EE4-8F44-959EEC60F6E2.png993E6F39-24C8-4E70-8AAC-8B36A24C0732.png
 
Getting some decent lighting and loud cracks of thunder from a tiny pop-up cell off the outflow, several miles to the SW, but that's about it.
 
That 2nd round will stay west of both NC and SC. It's headed for AL and GA. The 6z GFS is awfully dry for most of us through Monday morning. The big story will be the heat and dry weather over the Carolinas this week.
 
JHS said:
That 2nd round will stay west of both NC and SC. It's headed for AL and GA. The 6z GFS is awfully dry for most of us through Monday morning. The big story will be the heat and dry weather over the Carolinas this week.
Click to expand...

Even if it does, it’s cool pool will spread out into the lee side of the mountains, likely fireing up Convection with a lee trough in place and solid amounts of instability, there will also be a theta-E ridge
 
JHS said:
That 2nd round will stay west of both NC and SC. It's headed for AL and GA. The 6z GFS is awfully dry for most of us through Monday morning. The big story will be the heat and dry weather over the Carolinas this week.
Click to expand...
Where have you been? Haven't seen you posting in a while. I see that you are back on that drought wagon again.
 
Sun's already out. No signs of low clouds/debris either.

Already starting off with MUCAPE of 4000 J/KG, MULIs of -10, mid-level lapse rates of 8 C/KM and DCAPE of 1400 J/KG, with the LLJ kicking in.
 
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BTW, for posterity, this was the sounding from FFC (Peachtree City) at 00z yesterday evening.

It's pretty obvious there was still a very weak cap in place. Could have been much worse without it.

FFC.gif
 
If anything, there's a bit more shear to work with today, which would aid in even better storm organization.
 
If we had any moisture/instability I would be pumped to see that mcs in ky/in this morning. Instead it'll probably die a painful death once it crosses the apps this evening

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Not even a marginal risk for Charlotte, Statesville or Wilkesboro. Nothing to see. General thunder possible lol
 
Yeah latest hrrr barely has the MCS making it to the mountains lol

Timing is just not there for most areas.

It is possible that the leftover boundary could focus thunderstorms this afternoon. But don’t hold your breath for a large organized MCS.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
Yeah latest hrrr barely has the MCS making it to the mountains lol

Timing is just not there for most areas.

It is possible that the leftover boundary could focus thunderstorms this afternoon. But don’t hold your breath for a large organized MCS.
Click to expand...
I'd say GA and some of AL has the best chance at seeing the MCS today. Barely anything stopping it and since its happening during the day instead of night, it could only strengthen from here.
 
Yeah its hauling, may cross the mountains with out much disruption.


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Spc mentions an upgrade if an established mcs forms. I love northwest flow
 
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