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Pattern Jarring January

GaWx said:
I think you've been spoiled by the unusually active 3 big and widespread storms in just 1.5 months. There have been some entire winters with virtually nothing like any of these 3 storms outside of the mountains, NC, and TN. So, to me it doesn't feel weird at all. If anything, having 3 widespread major storms in just 6 weeks felt weird since it was unusual. KATL had its earliest 2nd 2"+ storm on record back to 1890. We should be thankful for this unusual high level of activity no matter what the rest of this winter has in store.
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Too late, Larry, I'm not spoiled, but like Pavlov's dog, I'm now used to winter events on a short cycle, although I've only participated in one...oh, ok I'll count that dusting on roofs for a few minutes as another. I've come to expect a winter storm every few weeks, and that's what I want going forward. No more lonely winters droughts, no more years without a flake, pellet, or ice coating...I want the new winter paradigm in the south. No going back now, Climo must bend to our will!!!
 
I go with JB when he says "Enjoy the wx as it is the only wx you've got". Just enjoy life, period, as much as possible without letting the wx prevent that. But in regard to sunny, dry, mild 60s-70s days in winter, those are always going to occur in the SE and I must say they feel great for outdoor activities. They don't at all resemble humid 80s+ days of late spring/summer/early fall. Plus the ups and downs make things more interesting to me. Just like day after day of heat and humidity in summer, does anyone think that day after day of cold can get monotonous? This is the SE, where lots of ups and downs happen except during the coldest winters. Even during the very coldest, there are some ups and downs. Anyway, SAV had what may have been their coldest 27 days (12/25/17-1/20/18) since Dec 2000-Jan 2001. I need to doublecheck that but that was my preliminary finding. With that kind of lengthy cold, I'm not going to cry over very comfy 60s-70s. Rather, I'm going to go outside and enjoy them.

On another note for the ones hoping for cold to return for more than a short period to at least some of the E US in Feb, MDA just said that there is a "threat" of cross polar flow into the Midwest starting around 2 weeks from now fwiw. They also cited the MJO moving into phase 7 then, which may set off a decline in the EPO via increased N Pacific ridging.

Edit: I know Phil has been all over the MJO as regards potential return of cold, especially if it comes around weak/inside circle.
 
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Brick Tamland said:
I don't doubt it is going to get cold again and we will have more winter storm threats. I like the back and forth and think that is when get the best storms around my area. Of course it isn't going to do anything if we stay warm. But it usually doesnt do much here when we stay cold for a long period, either. It hit 70 six days before last Wednesday's storm. That is the kind of winter that usually produces big ones here.
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This exactly. I got nothing but dandruff flakes when we were bone chilling cold and dry as a desert. But Literally it only took a few days after a warm up for a storm to show up and pop us in the chin. We usually get our best snow storms when temps are up and down. Sure we won’t have snow on the ground for over a week if we do get snow but that’s normal for the south. As long as we don’t have any 1-2 week stretches of well above normal I’ll stay optimistic that some of us will see more snow before winters end.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Seriously ? How can anyone not like 65 degrees in the middle of winter ?
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I like 65 degrees plenty in April, May, June, July, August, September, October, and November. 65 gets plenty of love. It can give colder numbers a turn for one third of the year. No need for it to be greedy!
 
pcbjr said:
No west coast ridging, no cold Canadian HP, no Baja SW, no blocking, everything is, in a word, without spelling it out, a "cluster" ...
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To avoid "worry" of cold lovers over each model run, I recommend you make it easy on yourself and just go ahead and accept that it will be mild dominated the better part of two weeks. Then see what happens in about 2 weeks when the MJO comes around. Actually, it doesn't even look all that warm for Phil and myself this week relative to our normal highs of low to mid 60s, partly due to the unseasonable cold nearby Atlantic thanks to the very cold of last 3 weeks. Any onshore flow will keep highs from being overly warm. Also, one or two short chilly spells during this 2 week period have been showing up in the models.

If this is a CF, I can handle it just fine. There are way worse CFs in life like bad health.
 
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GaWx said:
To avoid "worry" of cold lovers over each model run, I recommend you make it easy on yourself and just go ahead and accept that it will be mild dominated the better part of two weeks. Then see what happens in about 2 weeks when the MJO comes around. Actually, it doesn't even look all that warm for Phil and myself this week relative to our normal highs of low to mid 60s, partly due to the unseasonable cold nearby Atlantic thanks to the very close of last 3 weeks. Any onshore flow will keep highs from being that warm. Also, one or two short chilly spells during this 2 week period have been showing up in the models.
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Larry,
Just in case there is any misunderstanding - No worry here. ;) Seems like getting the obvious out in front is a good way to go, though!
You know how I love cold, but I have no bias ... just comment on what I see, and if I'm wrong, there's about 900 folks here who'll tell me so! And would I love to be wrong on this one ... :cool:
Best!
Phil

PS - You are 1000% correct on our temps, and Wed and Thur don't look bad at all ... :D
 
Near 70 here with sunny skies and RHs in the 30s. Getting ready to go outside and enjoy this beautiful day with no coat for a change before watching some football.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
PV is on the right side of the globe. Let's raise those heights over Alaska and break some more US records
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Yeah! Oh my ! All the cold is gone , woe is me! :(. Don't shoot the messenger , just gonna drop this right here! GFS is the best model known to man, tons of cold in Canada, ready to tap, was supposed to be warm until first week of Feb! Say it ain't so! :(
 
Webberweather53 said:
You wanna see a gradient in snowfall look no further than near Minneapolis-St. Paul. You go from virtually nothing to well over 1" of liquid equivalent in the same county on the 3km NAM. Just insane, nightmare forecast for local mets...
View attachment 3375
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Looks like Wake County NC! :)
 
GaWx said:
Near 70 here with sunny skies and RHs in the 30s. Getting ready to go outside and enjoy this beautiful day with no coat for a change before watching some football.
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Yeah, I was working on my chainsaw in the sun, and had to come out of my jacket, and roll up my sleeves. Funny how nights as low as twelve, and days in the 30's will make 65 seem like 95, lol. I didn't like it...but at least when I go for my walk at night it's cold..and that's when it sleets anyway :)
 
I have to say it was absolutely stunning in Atlanta today parks were crammed with dogs, people smiling, literally people came out of the woodwork.....Do not worry Winter will be back in force soon enough....
 
BPATL said:
I have to say it was absolutely stunning in Atlanta today parks were crammed with dogs, people smiling, literally people came out of the woodwork.....Do not worry Winter will be back in force soon enough....
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Yeh, while sittin/chillin on front porch today, I saw a good dozen cars/trucks go by with windows down going back and forth with folks just enjoying the day... Cabin fever relief!
 
I may start watching the end of the month time frame for our next potential. The Euro and GFS have been trending a weak low south, and the system has a nice 500Vort feature to it. If we can get it to trend more positive in the east and deeper, then there could be the potential of a system.
gfs_z500_vort_us_28.png
 
ForsythSnow said:
I may start watching the end of the month time frame for our next potential. The Euro and GFS have been trending a weak low south, and the system has a nice 500Vort feature to it. If we can get it to trend more positive in the east and deeper, then there could be the potential of a system.
gfs_z500_vort_us_28.png
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*cough* negative *cough*
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I like to blend the coldest and snowiest models. I find that extremely effective when trying to lure in new subscribers. It's similar to the Bastardi formula
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Just keep saying cold is coming, arcticgeddon, son of arcticgeddon, cold like you've never seen, they will come! Pioneer model FTL
 
from a met on amwx: Beginning to think there could be more significant and prolonged cold through much of February. Was never on the warm train and thought cold would come back, but the magnitude may end up being quite impressive compared to just run of the mill "cold." "The pattern is clearly primed for a very amped ridge in the NE Pacific to return...with MJO progressing through 8-1-2 in the first half of Feb, what appears to be a robust block developing during week 2 over the N Pac and towards the pole, and potentially a strat PV disturbance during week 2, signs may be pointing to a strong and prolonged cold dump into central and eastern portions of the U.S. and southern Canada. This may not yield much snow outside of clippers and LES except near any transitions from warm to cold and vice versa and any relaxations, but the cold may be notable. We will have to see if the signals for big cold maintain and how long they last into February, though I think if the stars align as appear possible a top 10 cold February is on the table for much of the region. "
 
Yikes. Better set up a go fund me account for February's utility bills. Could get deep into those pockets image.png
 
I hit 72 today, but it honestly felt more like a late April/early May day due to the fact of how cold it's been so far this month. I did some historical research this afternoon (using Macon as a guide point) and this current January through the first twenty days averaged the coldest low temperature since 1981. I want to say that it beat out 2010 by around .1 or .2.
 
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