With that, we need the TPV to trend weaker and further north so that the wave can develop.
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Pattern Januworry
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
My biggest concern is that this still ends up too far west
Stephenb888
Member
Not really this screams NC
bingcrosbyb
Member
12z with the very late phase. East.
Yeah that run is perfectly fine. Got the trend we want. Shortwave looked a little too positively tilted but that detail will probably change. I reckon the ensembles will look better too
Noticing a trend south with our TPV during the storm, no bueno for the Ne but we have wiggle room 
Not at concerned about that. Famous last words right. ?
accu35
Member
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It does, but it wouldn’t take much for a little NW to put MS/Al in play. This run was very close for us too.
iGRXY
Member
Trend this year has been much more digging into the short range so until that stops, I am going to bet this digs further the closer we get. verbatim we are only a couple ticks from a massive phase and bomb, especially east of the apps. Truthfully I want it to keep this look until early Wednesday bc we all know where this likely trends and it’s usually not further OTS
This is great but it seems to be filtering our low level temps from the west which is a tall task for most here. 
bingcrosbyb
Member
Yep. Compare 12z yesterday to 12z today. Much flatter ridging today shifting everything east.
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Or this could become a 50/50 low for another system after like 2 weekends ago… #tablestter
ATLwxfan
Member
GFS seemed better than 06z. Another shift of the same magnitude and we get our beast back.
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packfan98
Moderator
12z GEFS looks better at hr 96 with the dig further west. Let’s see what happens off the east coast. I bet we will get some decent looks.
BHS1975
Member
I'd rather have this than it showing a cutter right now. If it amps up it's gonna need room to turn more north.
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packfan98
Moderator
Yeah! I’m wondering if if the next panels will show more of a southern dig to get the storm to go boom when and where we need it too? Keep us updated!
Also I’ll acknowledge that ground temps aren’t giving red flags, but maybe some orange and yellow tinted flags. I so far consider this a “we will cross that bridge when we get there” caliber issue