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Pattern January Thread - The Final Chapter

Shawn

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Hey everyone. January part two has reached 40 pages. Continue your January weather talk here. :)
 
On lunch break to read, and I'm the first on here lol!!
 
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6Z GFS is very close to something wintry around 174 hrs, still need a little west shift of the trough and a little more digging and interaction but something to watch
 
06z GFS, this looks more like it than 0z GFS. More interaction between the northern stream. This is somthing something to watch out for.
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0z Euro, good energy to work with and the northern stream is taping in.
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I thought the 00z euro looked pretty good...energy flying all over the place, so I'm sure we will see many different looks for sure, but it looks cold and multiple shots of it.
 
The last few days of this month has so much potential. After looking over the 06z GFS, it seems like there could be overrunning then a phase off of the coast of the Carolina's maybe. The moisture stays too far down in the Gulf, this is why we want to see some northern stream interaction.

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Please snow the weekend of the 5th. Taking my daughter to Great Wold Lodge for her bday. Would be awesome.
 
Fwiw, today's consensus MJO forecast at least suggests that it will go back into the circle by 1/27 and then quite possibly wind around counterclockwise into or near the left side of the circle as we get to late into the 1st week in Feb. So, from the MJO perspective, alone, there's at least a reason to think that a decent cold period COULD return to the SE US by late in the 11-15 day period. OTOH, warmth has been handily beating cold for the winter to date and the MJO is just one factor with only tendencies associated with it. It sure would be nice to get a period of sustained -AO/-NAO. Unfortunately, the GEFS mean isn't predicting either at this time. Then again, neither is anywhere close to being required to allow for the possibility of a major SE winter storm.
 
The GFS maybe at that point were it's finally getting the solution down more. Crunching those numbers! It may get better and better from here on out. We'll see what the 12z GFS will hold. How are we doing on the members?

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12z gfs wants to excite us days 8-10

sharpen the western ridge and we are in business
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The gulf system itself doesn't come up but you can see on the 500 MB maps it interact with the clipper a lot, that's certainly an interesting new development.
 
Fee-Fi-Fo-Fum, I'm the Northern Branch and I've come to crush you.
 
I'm getting more and more interested in days 7-10

just need a little sharper ridge
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850s suck. but we shall see. Looks like if precip breaks out after that frame, it'd be more icy in nature for many.
 
Very interested to see the gfs ensembles and what they show days 7-10

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I'm getting more and more interested in days 7-10

just need a little sharper ridge
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You would think there would be a sharper ridge with that 1041mb high sitting there.

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Charlie...I agree...you sharpen that trough and we have a nice storm on our hands.




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Prediction: based on the GEFS mean 850's/qpf, you're going to like what some of the members show for 1/29-31. Mean qpf of note is significantly further north than prior GEFS runs for that period while mean 850's aren't warmer. I bet there are going to be some interesting members shown when they're released. That's the benefit of the mean trough being centered further west near the Mississippi Valley.
 
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Not just the ridge out west will help sharpen the ridge...the ridge out in the Atlantic also plays a role. It does bulge to the north and west making that trough dig deeper.
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Holy hell. That's the pendulum swinging back with a fury.


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I can't speak to you until you burn that damn sled. I'm sorry , let me know when you have video proof lol

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The 12z CMC has a sharper ridge. I think it's going to start to get interesting over the next few days.
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Prediction: based on the GEFS mean 850's/qpf, you're going to like what some of the members show for 1/29-31. Mean qpf of note is significantly further north than prior GEFS runs for that period while mean 850's aren't warmer. I bet there are going to be some interesting members shown when they're released. That's the benefit of the mean trough being centered further west near the Mississippi Valley.
wow it's a big improvement on the gefs days 6-12 . Very active

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