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Pattern January Thread - The Final Chapter

Likely doesn't cut it this run, but a slight step to more consolidated energy, it's just too little too late.
Keeping an eye on it since we likely don't want another snow-jam.

Of course some light flurry activity breaking out for parts of NC/TN.
 
I'm making a hand drawn map on a solution. Good snows coming for some! I'm going with the Euro EPS and a blend of GFS and maybe some CMC modeling depending on how that model handles of what I think of the realistic solution.

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12z cmc is further west with the trough
6c3d0b3345fca02bf46528d05f1a2e49.jpg


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Here is my hand drawn map, some will see good snows, some will see none at all and some will see flurries. I'm going with the Euro EPS, it's showing the low closer to the coast before heading out to sea. I tweaked on where the low should be and the track of low (approximately). During this period, the NAO is slightly negative so that supports the idea of track of low. Keep in mind that my idea could change. The low could be further out to sea and most will just see flurries and some will see nothing at all.

If the low comes about further south and west, the area of best snows will shift to the south and west as well. At this time, I don't think that the low will come about further south and west because the ridge out in the Atlantic is further east on the Euro EPS. If that ridge was further north and west, the low could come about further south and west. The moisture is limited, but ample moisture is showing up out in the Atlantic.
The 850 temps are cold enough to support good snow growth. The Euro EPS is showing -10c (14F) and the 12z GFS 850mb temp anomalies are showing that as well. We'll see what the afternoon Euro runs show.

If you're in that darker blue, the chance there is greater of seeing snow than the lighter blue. This is not a snowfall accumulation map, just showing of where the chances of snow will be. Dark blue= 40% chance at seeing snow, Lighter blue=10-20% chance at seeing snow.

snowfall_map.jpg
 
Not so fast... I counted a few members that gave Shane and I some flurries and the mean is a dusting. Eternal optimist here :D
 
I don't ever remember a January where I was able open the Windows so much. Another beautiful spring like January day
 
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