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Pattern January Thread - The Final Chapter

GaWx said:
Oops, my bad! Because we had just been talking MJO, I somehow thought you were asking for it. Sorry. I don't know where to find SOI forecasts. I used to try to forecast the SOI trend using the Euro sfc pressure maps, but have't lately.
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Thanks - I have a SOI link but it is dead right now
ForsythSnow said:
I cannot unsee that. Not at all. Ever. I wonder what the other ensembles show and what caused that 3 feet.
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I'm not going to import but American SE has a map posted even juicer than that.
 
I just saw that map and I have no words at all. If even half of that were to work out I'd be fine again for about 2-3 years. Doesn't mean I wouldn't still track but I'd be OK after that if I saw nothing.
 
as Shane pointed out. those ensemble members are keying the same energy the euro control did . BUT alot of that is ice and not snow

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Storm5 said:
as Shane pointed out. those ensemble members are keying the same energy the euro control did . BUT alot of that is ice and not snow

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Well, the GFS needs to stop fooling everyone because at the bottom it says accumulated snowfall. That is deceiving.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Well, the GFS needs to stop fooling everyone because at the bottom it says accumulated snowfall. That is deceiving.
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. we know from years past that those maps count all frozen as snow . So they should always always always be taken with a grain of salt so should the fact it's out in two week land

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If its an icy look, historic ice storms like those are close to once a decade type things. so yeah it's probably going to be gone the next run lol.
 
Slight northward shift of shield of moisture in the Gulf on 0z GFS than 18z GFS.

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This GFS run will be worse than 12z but slightly better than the 18z. The gulf shortwave looks healthier but it's not as healthy as it has been depicted before.
 
Looking more juicy with the northern disturbance than 18z GFS.

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Already more light snow coverage over Tennessee on Sunday. But it's not going to show a good run for Alabama/Georgia/North Carolina outside mountains/South Carolina.
 
Not a bad run for the southern Apps. It's big because they've not seen as much snow as they usually do even in winters in which most of the south don't see any snow.
 
Absolutely hate that the pacific sucks. After that massive storm crosses upper North America starting from out of the Pacific, instead of a trough on either side, there's just a flat flow.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Absolutely hate that the pacific sucks. After that massive storm crosses upper North America starting from out of the Pacific, instead of a trough on either side, there's just a flat flow.
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it's not that bad just a few days already changes by day 8

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When do major storms usually pop up on models? If I recall, the big storms usually don't really start showing until about 5 days out historically. Am I mistaken?


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I thought at 222 that disturbance in the plains might dive and help change the pattern back, but it's following the flow, it's going to take a big storm for another pattern change...may happen but the GFS won't pick it up for a while. I think beyond February 5th will turn out to be very interesting for at least the upper south.
 
I thought that big cutter in what I'd now call fantasy land would do it to change the pattern but the pattern just stays in what I'd call a flat flow after that.
 
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