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Pattern January Thread - The Final Chapter

GaWx said:
You're welcome! I have been planning to post about this in the blog here. In there, I'd include a diagram that I think you'll like. The diagram says it all. (I've actually posted this diagram before.) So, what if you just look at the blog post when it is ready. I'll inform you when it is done. Hopefully it will be done very soon. Is that ok?
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Cool!
 
pcbjr said:
What, or should one ask, is that?
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Some pine needles off one of many limbs that fell in my yard coated with a good 1/3 inch of freezing rain. No power for 2 days I nearly froze bc I underestimated the warm nose and expected sleet

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bouncycorn said:
What do you think, storm?




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I don't see the day 5-6 threat if you wanna call it that being anything more than something that keeps us looking at the models due to how close a phase is.

I've been very interested in the day 8-12 period but now it looks like we sacrifice that with a ridge rolling through the middle of the country cause the pacific sucks.

if you look at the ensembles you would say second week of February holds great potential.

my thing is, the pacific is a mess and is causing the models huge issues . Anytime we are at or below normal in late January you always have to keep an eye out especially with all the energy flying around. .

would I be shocked if we see something before February 5th, no not at all. But Vegas would set the bar high and I would bet money it will be after the 5th.

which isn't that far away




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Storm5 said:
I don't see the day 5-6 threat if you wanna call it that being anything more than something that keeps us looking at the models due to how close a phase is.

I've been very interested in the day 8-12 period but now it looks like we sacrifice that with a ridge rolling through the middle of the country cause the pacific sucks.

if you look at the ensembles you would say second week of February holds great potential.

my thing is, the pacific is a mess and is causing the models huge issues . Anytime we are at or below normal in late January you always have to keep an eye out especially with all the energy flying around. .

would I be shocked if we see something before February 5th, no not at all. But Vegas would set the bar high and I would bet money it will be after the 5th.

which isn't that far away




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I agree it's unlikely. But it could be a phantom given the similarities.


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0bb24abea2dad8b67a805bd188022f3e.jpg



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bouncycorn said:
I agree it's unlikely. But it could be a phantom given the similarities.


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I agree . I'm not totally discounting it yet. I'm just not excited about it at the moment . but like you pointed out the setup is similar .

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That ensemble and the euro control are probably using this energy

a314f02027cf5e7e0c82d5eb5be6627a.jpg


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pcbjr said:
That's popping MJO on the link - where's the SOI in there?
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Oops, my bad! Because we had just been talking MJO, I somehow thought you were asking for it. Sorry. I don't know where to find SOI forecasts. I used to try to forecast the SOI trend using the S Hem. Euro sfc pressure maps, but have't lately.
 
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