Pattern January thread part deux

[GaWx]

Though not nearly as cold as the 12Z EPS and the 18Z GFS, the 18Z GEFS is the coldest GEFS for the SE US in the 11-15 yet. It even subtly hints at a possible wintry event mainly for the upper SE 1/31-2/1 fwiw (not much).

I'm putting my money on the Falcons in the SB, and a sleet storm across here at the end of the month, and I like my chances :  Goofy sees the truth way off now...it's like magic! T

 Well. Tony, the 0Z GEFS is even colder than the 1Z GEFS for the 11-15 and is not too much warmer than the very cold 12Z EPS. The steady trend is continuing toward colder and colder. I've now seen enough runs to feel that a cold is likely to be dominant in the SE for 1/28-2/2+.
 Regarding wintry precip. though the EPS runs have been dry during the cold with dry 500 mb flow, the last two runs of the GEFS don't look dry during the cold. The 0Z GEFS suggests multiple opportunities for wintry mischief for at least the upper SE. More fun times ahead it seems!

 

[SD]

 

[Meteorologist1999]

COLD AND DRY PER EPS, BUT GEFS is a different story maybe Winter Wx for SE!!

 

[Meteorologist1999]

COLD AND DRY PER EPS, BUT GEFS is a different story maybe Winter Wx for SE!!

 

[Meteorologist1999]

Though not nearly as cold as the 12Z EPS and the 18Z GFS, the 18Z GEFS is the coldest GEFS for the SE US in the 11-15 yet. It even subtly hints at a possible wintry event mainly for the upper SE 1/31-2/1 fwiw (not much).

I'm putting my money on the Falcons in the SB, and a sleet storm across here at the end of the month, and I like my chances :  Goofy sees the truth way off now...it's like magic! T

 Well. Tony, the 0Z GEFS is even colder than the 1Z GEFS for the 11-15 and is not too much warmer than the very cold 12Z EPS. The steady trend is continuing toward colder and colder. I've now seen enough runs to feel that a cold is likely to be dominant in the SE for 1/28-2/2+.
 Regarding wintry precip. though the EPS runs have been dry during the cold with dry 500 mb flow, the last two runs of the GEFS don't look dry during the cold. The 0Z GEFS suggests multiple opportunities for wintry mischief for at least the upper SE. More fun times ahead it seems!

The EPS Runs only goes out to 240 hrs, which means most of the cold air will come after, and most of the moisture will too!! 

 

[Meteorologist1999]

fdvfvf

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

Though not nearly as cold as the 12Z EPS and the 18Z GFS, the 18Z GEFS is the coldest GEFS for the SE US in the 11-15 yet. It even subtly hints at a possible wintry event mainly for the upper SE 1/31-2/1 fwiw (not much).

I'm putting my money on the Falcons in the SB, and a sleet storm across here at the end of the month, and I like my chances :  Goofy sees the truth way off now...it's like magic! T

Well, I am pulling for Atlanta as well, but they are under-dogs at this point. Hope the odds are better for a winter storm in the southeast than it is for the Falcons to win the SB.

 

[WilkesboroDude]

Alaska is set to go 50 degrees below zero. That's all I need to see that the Carolina's have no chance of wintry weather for the rest of the month. Need a weekly skip button if someone can fast forward 4 weeks.

 

[GaStorm]

Alaska is set to go 50 degrees below zero. That's all I need to see that the Carolina's have no chance of wintry weather for the rest of the month. Need a weekly skip button if someone can fast forward 4 weeks.

Why even bother posting then? I'm sure Alaska was plenty cold when we had our last shot of winter weather. It's not like it's going to just sit there for 4 weeks.

 

[SoutheastRidge]

It's got to be a little concerning that we are wasting the coldest time of the year with temps in the 60s and 70s doesn't it ?

 

[Tarheel1]

It's got to be a little concerning that we are wasting the coldest time of the year with temps in the 60s and 70s doesn't it ?

Not really , when Larrys stats show the best snows the Deep South ever see, are in February ! So don't worry yourself too much in Dohllonega and Carrollton, it never snows anyway!

 

[SoutheastRidge]

It's got to be a little concerning that we are wasting the coldest time of the year with temps in the 60s and 70s doesn't it ?

Not really , when Larrys stats show the best snows the Deep South ever see, are in February ! So don't worry yourself too much in Dohllonega and Carrollton, it never snows anyway!

Yeah it can snow in February but it also usually melts faster too with the higher Sun angle. Give me a snowstorm in January anyday over Feb. Fortunately we had 2-3" of snow earlier this month.

 

[Storm5]

I'll take snow regardless of the month. It's rare around the SE . If it comes in December ,great . If it comes in march, great

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[Shawn]

After a snow, I'm ready for it to melt within 2 days. I have a Hellacious driveway. I like the model watching and actual event happening.

 

[GaStorm]

It's got to be a little concerning that we are wasting the coldest time of the year with temps in the 60s and 70s doesn't it ?

Not really , when Larrys stats show the best snows the Deep South ever see, are in February ! So don't worry yourself too much in Dohllonega and Carrollton, it never snows anyway!

Yeah it can snow in February but it also usually melts faster too with the higher Sun angle. Give me a snowstorm in January anyday over Feb. Fortunately we had 2-3" of snow earlier this month.

While this is true we have had several good storms in February and March and no problems with sun angle at all. The late season storms also seem to bring more snow than ice which is a plus as well.

 

[SoutheastRidge]

Not really , when Larrys stats show the best snows the Deep South ever see, are in February ! So don't worry yourself too much in Dohllonega and Carrollton, it never snows anyway!

Yeah it can snow in February but it also usually melts faster too with the higher Sun angle. Give me a snowstorm in January anyday over Feb. Fortunately we had 2-3" of snow earlier this month.

While this is true we have had several good storms in February and March and no problems with sun angle at all. The late season storms also seem to bring more snow than ice which is a plus as well.

If it snows after Feb 15 I almost always want it to snow at night especially if surface temps are marginal.

 

[SASQUATCH]

Troll heavy, this thread is.

 

[Shawn]

Troll heavy, this thread is.

We allow a little banter.  If it gets out of control or abusive, we will handle it.

 

[accu35]

12gfs looks good still, nice pattern change

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

The recent GFS's still have that gulf storm after the pattern change but it's so cold it gets suppressed and literally heads to the Caribbean islands...hmmm where have I seen this movie before. (It's still too far out for it to be very noteworthy but still)

 

[Shawn]

The recent GFS's still have that gulf storm after the pattern change but it's so cold it gets suppressed and literally heads to the Caribbean islands...hmmm where have I seen this movie before. (It's still too far out for it to be very noteworthy but still)

Last time we got a big snow here in CAE, that happened with one of those. In fact, it was getting sent to Cuba within a week of the event before bringing it back with the dreaded NW turn.

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

Alaska is set to go 50 degrees below zero. That's all I need to see that the Carolina's have no chance of wintry weather for the rest of the month. Need a weekly skip button if someone can fast forward 4 weeks.

Give it up wilkesdud..... It will get cold before month's end. Unless, of course, you can illustrate for us why it will be another 4 weeks.

 

[SASQUATCH]

Troll heavy, this thread is.

We allow a little banter.  If it gets out of control or abusive, we will handle it.

I'm fine with either, I just felt the need to point this out to boost my low post count.

 

[Stormlover]

Alaska is set to go 50 degrees below zero. That's all I need to see that the Carolina's have no chance of wintry weather for the rest of the month. Need a weekly skip button if someone can fast forward 4 weeks.

Why even bother posting then? I'm sure Alaska was plenty cold when we had our last shot of winter weather. It's not like it's going to just sit there for 4 weeks.

For real. That was a truly ridiculous comment.

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

The recent GFS's still have that gulf storm after the pattern change but it's so cold it gets suppressed and literally heads to the Caribbean islands...hmmm where have I seen this movie before. (It's still too far out for it to be very noteworthy but still)

Last time we got a big snow here in CAE, that happened with one of those.  In fact, it was getting sent to Cuba within a week of the event before bringing it back with the dreaded NW turn.

I have noticed that when there is a -NAO storms will trend south or stay the course as we approach verification time. However, without blocking, you will almost always have a NW trend with gulf storms gaining latitude. There's simply nothing to keep them suppressed. Just something to remember when looking at medium range forecasts. The last storm was a prime example. The pattern screamed NW trend.

 

[dsaur]

Though not nearly as cold as the 12Z EPS and the 18Z GFS, the 18Z GEFS is the coldest GEFS for the SE US in the 11-15 yet. It even subtly hints at a possible wintry event mainly for the upper SE 1/31-2/1 fwiw (not much).

I'm putting my money on the Falcons in the SB, and a sleet storm across here at the end of the month, and I like my chances :  Goofy sees the truth way off now...it's like magic! T

Well, I am pulling for Atlanta as well, but they are under-dogs at this point. Hope the odds are better for a winter storm in the southeast than it is for the Falcons to win the SB.

It's all about execution now, and Atl has been executing at a high level...well, except for special teams....and Goofy executed pretty well last time, except for the moving the goodies away from me at the last minute part, lol, so....cold rain, or the hype bowl...all eyes will be glued on the future :  And notice Goofy cleverly took the chances away in the last few runs...like hiding the ball, just before a touchdown bomb.  Symbiosis at it's finest!  T

 

[dsaur]

After a snow, I'm ready for it to melt within 2 days.  I have a Hellacious driveway.   I like the model watching and actual event happening.

And I like sleet because it can stick around for a week, lol.  Always the yin and yang in weather, and weather watchers : 
   Oddly, the winter weather event I despise, can have the longest lasting effects of all...if you like being without power for ten days, lol, and bon fires for a month. T

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Yeah the comment on how cold Alaska is going to be was not smart at all. It's not like we never see polar vortex events or strat warming events.

All that really matters is getting out of the western trough-eastern ridge pattern and it looks like it's probably going to happen in 10 days.

 

[SD]

 

[olhausen]

Alaska is set to go 50 degrees below zero. That's all I need to see that the Carolina's have no chance of wintry weather for the rest of the month. Need a weekly skip button if someone can fast forward 4 weeks.

It seems every winter we get people screaming winter fail way to soon. I remember two years ago we were a week into February and my wife was asking me if our snow chances were over. I laughed and said no, not until the second week in March are our chances over. A week later we had 4 inches of snow which stayed on the ground for over two weeks which was the longest I have ever seen it stay around. Then soon after it melted we got another 5 inches the first week of March! So I'm surprised that you of all people being at a high elevation would be screaming winter fail everyday.


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[Arcc]

Stoopid GFS. It needs to run just a bit more to show the massive phaser about to come out of the gulf there.

 

[Brick Tamland]

After the last storm I want to see the models showing the storm in Cuba about 5 days out.

 

[Brick Tamland]

It's got to be a little concerning that we are wasting the coldest time of the year with temps in the 60s and 70s doesn't it ?

Not really. We have had plenty of big storms here a week after temps in the 60s and 70s. It was warm like that in January 2000 before the Carolina crusher. I think as long as things are active the back and forth is actually good for bigger storms here.

 

[WilkesboroDude]

I have years of observation experience to know when the S/E is getting hammered then Alaska and Maine are generally not. And vice versa. It takes time to reverse the wide scale temps, not to mention to gather all the other ingredients for a winter storm south of DC, aka timing.

I should be viewed as a optimist to say that our chances greatly increase for something wintry mid Feb or after. Some are so impatient and want it first thing in February but IMO it's just not going to happen during the first ten days if not longer.

^ I bother posting because it is important to watch the snow growth or removal in areas other than our backyard, seeing how heavily the Carolina's are affected by CAD temperature. This also affects the track as it sends low pressure systems undercutting the snow-pack to the south and east.

Think of it like a hot bathtub. The water cools down over time as we slosh around in it before it goes down the drain and enters the underground pipes (Spring). Patience is virtue as it travels down the pipes. You can't fasten the process by sloshing the bathtub more you will just spray water on the floor (Rain).

 

[SD]

 

[Rain Cold]

I have years of observation experience to know when the S/E is getting hammered then Alaska and Maine are generally not. And vice versa. It takes time to reverse the wide scale temps, not to mention to gather all the other ingredients for a winter storm south of DC, aka timing.

I should be viewed as a optimist to say that our chances greatly increase for something wintry mid Feb or after. Some are so impatient and want it first thing in February but IMO it's just not going to happen during the first ten days if not longer.

^ I bother posting because it is important to watch the snow growth or removal in areas other than our backyard, seeing how heavily the Carolina's are affected by CAD temperature. This also affects the track as it sends low pressure systems undercutting the snow-pack to the south and east.

Think of it like a hot bathtub. The water cools down over time as we slosh around in it before it goes down the drain and enters the underground pipes (Spring). Patience is virtue as it travels down the pipes. You can't fasten the process by sloshing the bathtub more you will just spray water on the floor (Rain).

Man I was witchu on that one....up till that last part!

 

[Stormlover]

I have years of observation experience to know when the S/E is getting hammered then Alaska and Maine are generally not. And vice versa. It takes time to reverse the wide scale temps, not to mention to gather all the other ingredients for a winter storm south of DC, aka timing.

I should be viewed as a optimist to say that our chances greatly increase for something wintry mid Feb or after. Some are so impatient and want it first thing in February but IMO it's just not going to happen during the first ten days if not longer.

^ I bother posting because it is important to watch the snow growth or removal in areas other than our backyard, seeing how heavily the Carolina's are affected by CAD temperature. This also affects the track as it sends low pressure systems undercutting the snow-pack to the south and east.

Think of it like a hot bathtub. The water cools down over time as we slosh around in it before it goes down the drain and enters the underground pipes (Spring). Patience is virtue as it travels down the pipes. You can't fasten the process by sloshing the bathtub more you will just spray water on the floor (Rain).

For you to say it will be mid Feb at least for us because Alaska is cold, it very naive. But...but, if you believe that, please don't keep coming on here and posting that junk...come back in February please

 

[Tarheel1]

I have years of observation experience to know when the S/E is getting hammered then Alaska and Maine are generally not. And vice versa. It takes time to reverse the wide scale temps, not to mention to gather all the other ingredients for a winter storm south of DC, aka timing.
I should be viewed as a optimist to say that our chances greatly increase for something wintry mid Feb or after. Some are so impatient and want it first thing in February but IMO it's just not going to happen during the first ten days if not longer.
^ I bother posting because it is important to watch the snow growth or removal in areas other than our backyard, seeing how heavily the Carolina's are affected by CAD temperature. This also affects the track as it sends low pressure systems undercutting the snow-pack to the south and east.
Think of it like a hot bathtub. The water cools down over time as we slosh around in it before it goes down the drain and enters the underground pipes (Spring). Patience is virtue as it travels down the pipes. You can't fasten the process by sloshing the bathtub more you will just spray water on the floor (Rain).

Man I was witchu on that one....up till that last part!

Mike drop! Just like the temps in 2 weeks! But man, that severe look over the upcoming weekend, be cray-cray!!

 

[Rain Cold]

I have years of observation experience to know when the S/E is getting hammered then Alaska and Maine are generally not. And vice versa. It takes time to reverse the wide scale temps, not to mention to gather all the other ingredients for a winter storm south of DC, aka timing.
I should be viewed as a optimist to say that our chances greatly increase for something wintry mid Feb or after. Some are so impatient and want it first thing in February but IMO it's just not going to happen during the first ten days if not longer.
^ I bother posting because it is important to watch the snow growth or removal in areas other than our backyard, seeing how heavily the Carolina's are affected by CAD temperature. This also affects the track as it sends low pressure systems undercutting the snow-pack to the south and east.
Think of it like a hot bathtub. The water cools down over time as we slosh around in it before it goes down the drain and enters the underground pipes (Spring). Patience is virtue as it travels down the pipes. You can't fasten the process by sloshing the bathtub more you will just spray water on the floor (Rain).

Man I was witchu on that one....up till that last part!

Mike drop! Just like the temps in 2 weeks! But man, that severe look over the upcoming weekend, be cray-cray!!

Yup it might get a tad breezy!  But you know what they say about thunder in the winter.  If you hear it, snow will fall within 10 days north of Mac... er Tarheel11!!1!1!!1's and Cold Rain's casas.

 

[SASQUATCH]

I have years of observation experience to know when the S/E is getting hammered then Alaska and Maine are generally not. And vice versa. It takes time to reverse the wide scale temps, not to mention to gather all the other ingredients for a winter storm south of DC, aka timing.

I should be viewed as a optimist to say that our chances greatly increase for something wintry mid Feb or after. Some are so impatient and want it first thing in February but IMO it's just not going to happen during the first ten days if not longer.

^ I bother posting because it is important to watch the snow growth or removal in areas other than our backyard, seeing how heavily the Carolina's are affected by CAD temperature. This also affects the track as it sends low pressure systems undercutting the snow-pack to the south and east.

Think of it like a hot bathtub. The water cools down over time as we slosh around in it before it goes down the drain and enters the underground pipes (Spring). Patience is virtue as it travels down the pipes. You can't fasten the process by sloshing the bathtub more you will just spray water on the floor (Rain).