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Pattern January thread part deux

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Rain Cold said:
Tarheel1 said:
Rain Cold said:
Man I was witchu on that one....up till that last part!
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Mike drop! Just like the temps in 2 weeks! But man, that severe look over the upcoming weekend, be cray-cray!!
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Yup it might get a tad breezy!  But you know what they say about thunder in the winter.  If you hear it, snow will fall within 10 days north of Mac... er Tarheel11!!1!1!!1's and Cold Rain's casas.
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Yessss!! I'm down with that! Just no snow at Bricks house!?
 
Tarheel1 said:
Rain Cold said:
Tarheel1 said:
Mike drop! Just like the temps in 2 weeks! But man, that severe look over the upcoming weekend, be cray-cray!!
Click to expand...
Yup it might get a tad breezy!  But you know what they say about thunder in the winter.  If you hear it, snow will fall within 10 days north of Mac... er Tarheel11!!1!1!!1's and Cold Rain's casas.
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Yessss!! I'm down with that! Just no snow at Bricks house!?
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Brick is too close to me....I'm doomed.
 
we are going to clean this thread up . it's for January discussion. there is a banter thread just a click away . if your post gets removed it just means it in the banter thread

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WilkesboroDude said:
I have years of observation experience to know when the S/E is getting hammered then Alaska and Maine are generally not. And vice versa. It takes time to reverse the wide scale temps, not to mention to gather all the other ingredients for a winter storm south of DC, aka timing.

I should be viewed as a optimist to say that our chances greatly increase for something wintry mid Feb or after. Some are so impatient and want it first thing in February but IMO it's just not going to happen during the first ten days if not longer.

^ I bother posting because it is important to watch the snow growth or removal in areas other than our backyard, seeing how heavily the Carolina's are affected by CAD temperature. This also affects the track as it sends low pressure systems undercutting the snow-pack to the south and east.

Think of it like a hot bathtub. The water cools down over time as we slosh around in it before it goes down the drain and enters the underground pipes (Spring). Patience is virtue as it travels down the pipes. You can't fasten the process by sloshing the bathtub more you will just spray water on the floor (Rain).
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Dude don't give yourself a headache over weather. It will do what it wants to do, I don't care if Alaska is 50 below zero, or what your observations are. Pattern is looking good and storms will come wether it's January or February. Just be happy we have cold coming, Because that beats 80 degree winter days
 
Storm5 said:
we are going to clean this thread up . it's for January discussion. there is a banter thread just a click away . if your post gets removed it just means it in the banter thread

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
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Yes I agree, thank you
 
Okay before a total switch, we need everyone who are having issues like GaWX or pcbjr to come forward. We need to see if this is a sporadic thing or not. If it's just a few user account out of our many, then it is likely an issue with a session cookie or something to that effect which can be fixed with account remakes, relogin.

Is anyone having posts not showing up problems? Or is anyone else not able to jump to the "last post" by clicking the last post link or green arrow button?
Also, is anyone else having issues logging in or out?

If it's widespread and not being reported, then it will require more effort. We are thinking the majority of you are not having issues on Tapa, m.southernwx.com, or Desktop.
 
Shawn said:
Okay before a total switch, we need everyone who are having issues like GaWX or pcbjr to come forward. We need to see if this is a sporadic thing or not. If it's just a few user account out of our many, then it is likely an issue with a session cookie or something to that effect which can be fixed with account remakes, relogin.

Is anyone having posts not showing up problems? Or is anyone else not able to jump to the "last post" by clicking the last post link or green arrow button?
Also, is anyone else having issues logging in or out?

If it's widespread and not being reported, then it will require more effort. We are thinking the majority of you are not having issues on Tapa, m.southernwx.com, or Desktop.
Click to expand...

The "last post" feature stopped working for me about an hour ago, but is now working correctly. Everything seems to be working fine for me. Thanks for all of the hard work, Shawn!
 
WilkesboroDude said:
I have years of observation experience to know when the S/E is getting hammered then Alaska and Maine are generally not. And vice versa. It takes time to reverse the wide scale temps, not to mention to gather all the other ingredients for a winter storm south of DC, aka timing.

I should be viewed as a optimist to say that our chances greatly increase for something wintry mid Feb or after. Some are so impatient and want it first thing in February but IMO it's just not going to happen during the first ten days if not longer.

^ I bother posting because it is important to watch the snow growth or removal in areas other than our backyard, seeing how heavily the Carolina's are affected by CAD temperature. This also affects the track as it sends low pressure systems undercutting the snow-pack to the south and east.

Think of it like a hot bathtub. The water cools down over time as we slosh around in it before it goes down the drain and enters the underground pipes (Spring). Patience is virtue as it travels down the pipes. You can't fasten the process by sloshing the bathtub more you will just spray water on the floor (Rain).
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I didn't realize you were totally clueless. First off you are wrong about Alaska and Maine being warm in order for us to get a winter storm. I told you this 2 weeks ago...... When we have our best winter storms, Maine has 850's that are -20C or less. Alaska can be warm or cold. Now, don't post that garbage again. By the way, I thought you said last night that you were not going to post anything until the pattern changed in 4-5 weeks.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
WilkesboroDude said:
I have years of observation experience to know when the S/E is getting hammered then Alaska and Maine are generally not. And vice versa. It takes time to reverse the wide scale temps, not to mention to gather all the other ingredients for a winter storm south of DC, aka timing.

I should be viewed as a optimist to say that our chances greatly increase for something wintry mid Feb or after. Some are so impatient and want it first thing in February but IMO it's just not going to happen during the first ten days if not longer.

^ I bother posting because it is important to watch the snow growth or removal in areas other than our backyard, seeing how heavily the Carolina's are affected by CAD temperature. This also affects the track as it sends low pressure systems undercutting the snow-pack to the south and east.

Think of it like a hot bathtub. The water cools down over time as we slosh around in it before it goes down the drain and enters the underground pipes (Spring). Patience is virtue as it travels down the pipes. You can't fasten the process by sloshing the bathtub more you will just spray water on the floor (Rain).
Click to expand...
I didn't realize you were totally clueless. First off you are wrong about Alaska and Maine being warm in order for us to get a winter storm. I told you this 2 weeks ago...... When we have our best winter storms, Maine has 850's that are -20C or less. Alaska can be warm or cold. Now, don't post that garbage again. By the way, I thought you said last night that you were not going to post anything until the pattern changed in 4-5 weeks.
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Pointless to talk to a brick-wall. SMH!


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Just checking in. Focused on the severe threat over the next 7 days and hoping for some winter potential in the extended. Rather have snow then tornadoes. ?
 
I am feeling a threat in the SE between Jan 26th- and Feb 02nd.
 
Shawn said:
I am feeling a threat in the SE between Jan 26th- and Feb 02nd.
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I am too. I like the setup we are going into during the time frame you just mentioned.


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Problem One:  When on iPhone (not using Tapatalk), the mobile version used to provide a link in a particular thread at the bottom called "Last", which would allow you to jump to the last page of the thread (in the mobile view).  I was not seeing that as an option earlier today in this thread and the severe thread.  Instead, all I saw were two options at the bottom: "Next Newest" and "Next Oldest", neither of which would help me find the next page in this thread.  Result:  I could only see page 1 in the mobile view.  I had to switch to the desktop view in order to see the other pages.

Problem 2:  At the desktop, the other day, when I would type a post, sometimes it would show up.  Sometimes, it wouldn't show up.  Result:  If it didn't show up, I had to wait until enough posts were made so that a new page was created.  Then my post and the rest showed up.  I don't think I've experienced this since the upgrade.  BUT I haven't been on as much either.

Hope that helps.
 
WilkesboroDude said:
I have years of observation experience to know when the S/E is getting hammered then Alaska and Maine are generally not. And vice versa. It takes time to reverse the wide scale temps, not to mention to gather all the other ingredients for a winter storm south of DC, aka timing.

I should be viewed as a optimist to say that our chances greatly increase for something wintry mid Feb or after. Some are so impatient and want it first thing in February but IMO it's just not going to happen during the first ten days if not longer.

^ I bother posting because it is important to watch the snow growth or removal in areas other than our backyard, seeing how heavily the Carolina's are affected by CAD temperature. This also affects the track as it sends low pressure systems undercutting the snow-pack to the south and east.

Think of it like a hot bathtub. The water cools down over time as we slosh around in it before it goes down the drain and enters the underground pipes (Spring). Patience is virtue as it travels down the pipes. You can't fasten the process by sloshing the bathtub more you will just spray water on the floor (Rain).
Click to expand...

This still isn't smart lol but I will bite a little. This warm period has already lasted a week (with your theory, it's already been bitterly cold in Alaska and Maine now and since it's started ROFL) and everything suggests it's going to begin to end in 10 days. Warm periods last a long time in southern areas but it's not likely this really gets pushed back even further than it has been. Maybe it's pushed back by a day or two, but it's not going to be pushed back for TWO WEEKS. If it's pushed back by two weeks, it means every single model busted big time as they've all seemed to zero in on the end time for this pattern. And again, all that matters is getting out of the western trough pattern. I've seen the opposite from what we saw the other week happen many times (where it was 70 after a day it was in the low 40s). I've seen it be in the 70s and then just a mere two days later it's in the high 30s to low 40s. It can change very quickly and will again.
 
Big change on the 8 to 14 day temps
814temp.new.gif
 
Yeah, that 18z GFS is a cluster at 500mb vort.  wonky.

 
Looks like the gfs keeps trying to establish a split flow with systems cutting underneath in Southern California. It's also been showing this on the GEFS. Could be a good setup.
 
The 18z GFS is....well needless to say it's interesting. It clearly shows the cutter that is also going to be the system that ends the western trough pattern, but after that it looks a little loopy to me. If it gets straightened out I definitely agree on a possible period of January 27th-February 2nd.
 
The model consensus for a couple of days has shown the coldest relative to normal during the 11-15 to be in the southern US with well below normal SE, near normal northern tier, and above normal in Canada. That would be one of the most favorable setups for a winter storm in the SE US if only the upper trough would be centered near the Mississippi and thus allow moisture to overrun the cold/~WSW 500 mb flow.
 
GaWx said:
The model consensus for a couple of days has shown the coldest relative to normal during the 11-15 to be in the southern US with well below normal SE, near normal northern tier, and above normal in Canada. That would be one of the most favorable setups for a winter storm in the SE US if only the upper trough would be centered near the Mississippi and thus allow moisture to overrun the cold/~WSW 500 mb flow.
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Yep, that's what it takes for a big dog miller A
 
The last couple days on the EPS run makes me very excited, PV sinking south southwest through Hudson Bay and the EPO ridge trying to poke northward toward the pole. I love it
 
18z gfs goes all in on trying to destroy the 10mb pv. Warming after warming and displacement into the Greenland Scandinavia area

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Testing...Stupid post issues...

Is anyone else who is using Tapatalk having issues deleting their post if they post the wrong thing?
 
whatalife said:
Testing...Stupid post issues...
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Working for now but I put info in the Support tab - just in case!

OOPS - your post did not include the Taptalk sentence until after I replied - delay in text making it to the BB?
 
pcbjr said:
whatalife said:
Testing...Stupid post issues...
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Working for now but I put info in the Support tab - just in case!

OOPS - your post did not include the Taptalk sentence until after I replied - delay in text making it to the BB?
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No. Just added that for clarification on what I was talking about.


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SD said:
The last couple days on the EPS run makes me very excited, PV sinking south southwest through Hudson Bay and the EPO ridge trying to poke northward toward the pole. I love it
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That certainly looks like a possible scenario. The LR models are pretty locked in as far as the pattern change is concerned. However, there are still details to sort out that could mean the difference between cold and very cold. Also, there is some concern as to where the trough axis sets up. This would be the difference between cold and dry vs. cold with wintry chances. These differences will probably not be agreed upon until sometime next week.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
GaWx said:
The model consensus for a couple of days has shown the coldest relative to normal during the 11-15 to be in the southern US with well below normal SE, near normal northern tier, and above normal in Canada. That would be one of the most favorable setups for a winter storm in the SE US if only the upper trough would be centered near the Mississippi and thus allow moisture to overrun the cold/~WSW 500 mb flow.
Click to expand...

Yep, that's what it takes for a big dog miller A
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My post..LOL. I was going to leave it but cant. Its too ridiculous without enough info. All i had to say was, Oh yeah! big dog miller A..come on timing. Sorry, how embarrassing.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
SD said:
The last couple days on the EPS run makes me very excited, PV sinking south southwest through Hudson Bay and the EPO ridge trying to poke northward toward the pole. I love it
Click to expand...

That certainly looks like a possible scenario. The LR models are pretty locked in as far as the pattern change is concerned. However, there are still details to sort out that could mean the difference between cold and very cold. Also, there is some concern as to where the trough axis sets up. This would be the difference between cold and dry vs. cold with wintry chances. These differences will probably not be agreed upon until sometime next week.
Click to expand...
Yep I have some concern about the trough axis being too far East. That said it always seems like the models slowly inch the trough axis west in time when these epo ridges show

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Well this has been entertainment reading to catch up. Lol

As usual some very good discussion, don't think I'll ever have the time to fully learn all the aspects of long range forecasting.

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