tennessee storm
Member
When u dealing with this setup arctic air pushing Down with an active southern stream. Some will get screwed with ice as the air is more shallow
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Pattern January Joke
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Brent
Member
Yeah I'm hoping it's snow but I have a fear ice is gonna be favored for sure
I mean it's a start for sure but still got work to do
NBAcentel
Member
Starting to look like the AIFS 
Brent
Member
14 degrees here this morning and all indications are we could beat that at some point soon
NWMSGuy
Member
Latest 06Z run of the GEFS is showing a number of hits going into this upcoming weekend.
GiantBear
Member
30 and dropping in Acworth this morning. Crisp and dry *sigh*
The few dandelions that popped up in my yard have died off since yesterday.
Brent
Member
Latest 06Z run of the GEFS is showing a number of hits going into this upcoming weekend.
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Yeah I may be dreaming or need sleep but the ensembles have improved every run here
Definitely have not seen that this winter here
NWMSGuy
Member
Yeah, this may be a good one to watch back our way!Yeah I may be dreaming or need sleep but the ensembles have improved every run here
Definitely have not seen that this winter here
Brent
Member
I hope so... It's been one of the worst winters(even living in Alabama) i've ever seen until now haha
I feel like literally nothing has happened
Brent
Member
this is really early for them
According to which models at which times? 18z, 0z. Etc…
Brent
Member
The basic idea seems to be the weekend out here and then spreading east following that yeah
But you're into fantasy land by then. Who really knows haha
Codariah
Member
Hey everyone! New here, but I’ve been kind of lurking for a while just reading everyone’s posts but I figured I’d get a little more involved.
Super excited for the pattern coming up, especially in my north GA/metro ATL neck of the woods.
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Super excited for the pattern coming up, especially in my north GA/metro ATL neck of the woods.
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Welcome
Colder trend on the EPS leading into next weekend
Same for Weathernext, a day later here
trackersacker
Member
Dude. This ain’t gonna be all Ohio Valley. Tennessee Valley/Southeast is totally getting in on this .
bncho
Member
As the STJ becomes more active, our first storm threat is likely on the horizon, probably around January 25-26.
The EPS is used as a reference below.
All major ensembles (EPS, GEFS, CMCE, EPS-AI, GEFS-AI) are forecasting a -4 SD AO, with the GEFS-AI forecasting a -5 SD AO. The last time a -5 SD AO coupled with a southern storm was February 19-20, 2025, where SE VA and NE NC received totals up to a foot. A west-based -NAO is also forecast to develop due to a retrograding Scandinavian block, and a +PNA spike is expected to happen.
This is a classic way to get a major winter storm. It's a very Ninoish look where there will be many chances to score. It looks pretty damn good if you ask me. Maybe if I'm being a little bit nitpicky then I could wish that the +PNA was more west-based with a more pronounced -EPO ridge, but we can't have everything go right. I'm watching this timeframe very closely.
The EPS is used as a reference below.
All major ensembles (EPS, GEFS, CMCE, EPS-AI, GEFS-AI) are forecasting a -4 SD AO, with the GEFS-AI forecasting a -5 SD AO. The last time a -5 SD AO coupled with a southern storm was February 19-20, 2025, where SE VA and NE NC received totals up to a foot. A west-based -NAO is also forecast to develop due to a retrograding Scandinavian block, and a +PNA spike is expected to happen.
This is a classic way to get a major winter storm. It's a very Ninoish look where there will be many chances to score. It looks pretty damn good if you ask me. Maybe if I'm being a little bit nitpicky then I could wish that the +PNA was more west-based with a more pronounced -EPO ridge, but we can't have everything go right. I'm watching this timeframe very closely.
Welcome to the forum! The next two weeks appear to be loaded with potential winter weather threats for practically everyone here. This upcoming period will be a fun one to watch. Let's all reel in a winter storm no matter our location by Groundhog Day.
We’re about 7-10 days away. It’s much too early to say anything specific about any areas beyond “there’s a good signal that maybe there might be a winter storm that might maybe affect the southeast”. Beyond that, you’ll have to wait and see.
rburrel2
Member
Major winter storm on the icon at hr162. Looks like the euro AI!
NBAcentel
Member
grandpa and grandma style wedge right here. These types of wedges happened during their younger days 
I feel some cry wolf from all this nothingburger tracking but at the same time, bark, woof
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
12Z AIGFS definitely trending to some sort of CAD event.
rburrel2
Member
The gfs ai misses on the first storm… but is otherwise one of the most insane looking runs you’ll see. And hits on storm 2. And looks like it has a storm 3 taking shape for the gulf coast. 100 year type sustained cold with a massive high pressure dominating the entire run. Crazy stuff
NBAcentel
Member
That’s hot
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
The first potential is definitely trending to a CAD event. Just toggle the last 3 runs on 2m temps.
rburrel2
Member
Lmao, around hr 300 gfs ai drops high ratio powder on the entire northern gulf coast from a west/east tracking storm.
Cary_Snow95
Member
After todays debacle, it’s a sight for sore eyes seeing the parade of high pressure dropping out of Canada
Good lord gfs is NSFW, absolute beauty
rburrel2
Member
Now that’s a flat transition zone.
Bros...
NEGaweather
Member
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Man what in the world is going on!?!
Bump this current system, we got work to do.
Bump this current system, we got work to do.
broken025
Member
rusrius
Member
Welcome to the family