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Pattern January Joke

rburrel2 said:
I went back and looked: This makes 9 consecutive runs of the euro AI with a major/widespread winter storm for the southeast in the same timeframe. Going back further it’s been there 11 of the last 12 runs.

This is getting all the way back to 300hr+ forecasts. We are now inside of 240hrs for start time of this threat.

Absolutely crazy how consistent it’s been with this threat.
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More likely going be bunch of us dealing with ice unfortunately. But finally I like the pattern coming up
 
88742666a223234440bd80956611f8b2.jpg

GEFS for Gainesville Ga


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Wade2026 said:
Good morning guys. Just catching up. Two possible threats starting next weekend? First one more mid-south?
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The basic idea seems to be the weekend out here and then spreading east following that yeah

But you're into fantasy land by then. Who really knows haha
 
Codariah said:
Hey everyone! New here, but I’ve been kind of lurking for a while just reading everyone’s posts but I figured I’d get a little more involved.

Super excited for the pattern coming up, especially in my north GA/metro ATL neck of the woods.


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Welcome
 
As the STJ becomes more active, our first storm threat is likely on the horizon, probably around January 25-26.
The EPS is used as a reference below.
All major ensembles (EPS, GEFS, CMCE, EPS-AI, GEFS-AI) are forecasting a -4 SD AO, with the GEFS-AI forecasting a -5 SD AO. The last time a -5 SD AO coupled with a southern storm was February 19-20, 2025, where SE VA and NE NC received totals up to a foot. A west-based -NAO is also forecast to develop due to a retrograding Scandinavian block, and a +PNA spike is expected to happen.
This is a classic way to get a major winter storm. It's a very Ninoish look where there will be many chances to score. It looks pretty damn good if you ask me. Maybe if I'm being a little bit nitpicky then I could wish that the +PNA was more west-based with a more pronounced -EPO ridge, but we can't have everything go right. I'm watching this timeframe very closely.

eps_z500a_nhem_fh150-270 (1).gif
 
Codariah said:
Hey everyone! New here, but I’ve been kind of lurking for a while just reading everyone’s posts but I figured I’d get a little more involved.

Super excited for the pattern coming up, especially in my north GA/metro ATL neck of the woods.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Welcome to the forum! The next two weeks appear to be loaded with potential winter weather threats for practically everyone here. This upcoming period will be a fun one to watch. Let's all reel in a winter storm no matter our location by Groundhog Day.
 
Wade2026 said:
How does North Carolina look for this possible storm? Impressive look!
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We’re about 7-10 days away. It’s much too early to say anything specific about any areas beyond “there’s a good signal that maybe there might be a winter storm that might maybe affect the southeast”. Beyond that, you’ll have to wait and see.
 
rburrel2 said:
The gfs ai misses on the first storm… but is otherwise one of the most insane looking runs you’ll see. And hits on storm 2. And looks like it has a storm 3 taking shape for the gulf coast. 100 year type sustained cold with a massive high pressure dominating the entire run. Crazy stuff
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The first potential is definitely trending to a CAD event. Just toggle the last 3 runs on 2m temps.
 
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