Good and improving. AI Euro Ensemble. Jan 28
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Pattern January Joke
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
packfan98
Moderator
Would this look peg your snow meter? Not a lot to nitpick about there.
NBAcentel
Member
I didn’t realize the AIFS is right there at day 7, and the ens is pinging hard for the day 7-8 event 
trackersacker
Member
I’m gonna be honest I don’t buy a huge ridge next weekend shoving that winter storm way up into the Ohio valley. Wouldn’t be shocked if it’s a lot closer to home than that. I mean it was more so yesterday.
That’s my big worry here in southern Md that all this gets suppressed and we miss it all
NBAcentel
Member
Oh 
packfan98
Moderator
Good to see you posting. This could be the big storm we’ve been waiting on for years.
NBAcentel
Member
Ngl just went over most modeling and this probably has a shot at some big B2B action. That look at day 10-11 could be even better and colder
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
If I had my choice, I would probably prefer letting first big storm go by to your north next weekend to set the glacier. Then you go score as quick and often as you can after that, possibly with multiple big storms.
Of course, I don’t think anyone would complain if they got hit off the bat either
Of course, I don’t think anyone would complain if they got hit off the bat either
the elusive snow on snow. Saddle tf up
NCSNOW
Member
It will Be cold enough that We can make it without the glacier for #2 , 3,4 etc . Need to ring em all imo.
trackersacker
Member
Man this is an absolutely mint look
wow
Member
The '20s have been awful winters. Really need this one to step up. It's been years since the models all locked in on an event this far out. We are due for an historic one.
How about we build a glacier across the Southern US to prevent the Midwest from warming on the return flow?
The old record long MJO phase 6 for DJF of 13 days (was during La Niña of 1998-9) will be beaten per model progs. Records go back to 1975. It started on Jan 5th and will likely end on Jan 20th or 21st meaning a 16-17 day long phase 6:
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
Been saying this for the last few days. GFS and GEFS are really the only models that show a more northern solution with western dumping.
Laying down the cold and snowpack for yall! 
SnowmasterATL
Member
what does this mean?
Can I finally get it to snow the 2nd week of February in Lake Tahoe please...I am 0/3 the last 3 years.
Westerly wind burst I believe
It looks very good for sure, and it begins with this TPV dropping down into central > eastern Canada as our cold source
You know the drill though. Gotta have things hold for many days, and with more model agreement…and have luck go our way in the end
A very strong westerly wind burst was being advertised on models out 11-15 days, and thus there were a number of folks posting/tweeting about this, which likely would have helped move things more quickly in the direction of El Niño from the current La Niña. According to Ventrice, it isn’t showing nearly as strong. Assuming this is accurate, I hope these folks follow up on this changed model output with more posts as it would be the right thing to do. Are models bad with this, too?
More on WWBs
On average, three of these events take place each year, but are significantly more common during El Niño years. They have been linked to various mesoscale phenomena, including tropical cyclones, mid-latitude cold surges, and the Madden–Julian oscillation. Their connection with Kelvin waves also indicate a connection with the onset of El Niño events, with every major occurrence since the 1950s featuring a westerly wind burst upon their onset.
Westerly wind burst - Wikipedia
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Siberia don’t have nothing on that PV we got north of us if it verifies
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NCSNOW
Member
If this pattern is gonna fall through the floor, fail. It doesnt need to happen over the next 24 hrs. Lot of folks gonna be coming in here for theurapetic reasons tomorrow.
Brent
Member
Is this good?
NBAcentel
Member
AI model war 
I’d typically favor the Euro AI since it’s a better model.
Ha Ha Ha Ha
Forevertothee
Member
Is that sarcasm or a good thing?
Well. It includes the best phases…. And It’s the euro… so…
Cary_Snow95
Member
00z GFS only has flurries for the 01/29 system. Winter canceled.
It’s good. We certainly struggle these days to get the MJO to make a good pass thru 7-8-1-2
But it makes me think of a winter which had one of the all-time most terrible-est patterns, the winter of 2011-2012. The MJO made a good pass thru 7-8-1-2 in Feb 2012, and this beautiful split flow pattern developed out west in the midst of an otherwise awful winter. But it led to a pattern that produced a light snow (1-5 inches) across parts of northern NC. It’s a good example though of the MJO improving the pattern on the Pacific side
Canadian flashes the mega wedge yet again 
trackersacker
Member
Euro AIFS looks awesome next weekend into early the following week
trackersacker
Member
2011-2012 has to be the worst winter I’ve experienced here in NE TN. 2022-2023 is a close second.
TheBetterDoge
Member
Solid AIFS run!
More ice right? I wish the GFS would jump on board!
trackersacker
Member
Hey @griteater, seems like there’s mixed views on what MJO phase 1 and 2 brings in February, particularly given the state of ENSO. Any thoughts on that?