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Pattern January Joke

Webberweather53 said:
If I had my choice, I would probably prefer letting first big storm go by to your north next weekend to set the glacier. Then you go score as quick and often as you can after that, possibly with multiple big storms.

Of course, I don’t think anyone would complain if they got hit off the bat either
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How about we build a glacier across the Southern US to prevent the Midwest from warming on the return flow? :cool:
 
trackersacker said:
I’m gonna be honest I don’t buy a huge ridge next weekend shoving that winter storm way up into the Ohio valley. Wouldn’t be shocked if it’s a lot closer to home than that. I mean it was more so yesterday.
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Been saying this for the last few days. GFS and GEFS are really the only models that show a more northern solution with western dumping.
 
packfan98 said:
Would this look peg your snow meter? Not a lot to nitpick about there.
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It looks very good for sure, and it begins with this TPV dropping down into central > eastern Canada as our cold source

You know the drill though. Gotta have things hold for many days, and with more model agreement…and have luck go our way in the end

IMG_4606.png
 
SnowmasterATL said:
what does this mean?
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A very strong westerly wind burst was being advertised on models out 11-15 days, and thus there were a number of folks posting/tweeting about this, which likely would have helped move things more quickly in the direction of El Niño from the current La Niña. According to Ventrice, it isn’t showing nearly as strong. Assuming this is accurate, I hope these folks follow up on this changed model output with more posts as it would be the right thing to do. Are models bad with this, too?

More on WWBs
On average, three of these events take place each year, but are significantly more common during El Niño years. They have been linked to various mesoscale phenomena, including tropical cyclones, mid-latitude cold surges, and the Madden–Julian oscillation. Their connection with Kelvin waves also indicate a connection with the onset of El Niño events, with every major occurrence since the 1950s featuring a westerly wind burst upon their onset.

en.wikipedia.org

Westerly wind burst - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
 
griteater said:
It looks very good for sure, and it begins with this TPV dropping down into central > eastern Canada as our cold source

You know the drill though. Gotta have things hold for many days, and with more model agreement…and have luck go our way in the end

View attachment 184804
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Siberia don’t have nothing on that PV we got north of us if it verifies


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Forevertothee said:
Is that sarcasm or a good thing?
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It’s good. We certainly struggle these days to get the MJO to make a good pass thru 7-8-1-2

But it makes me think of a winter which had one of the all-time most terrible-est patterns, the winter of 2011-2012. The MJO made a good pass thru 7-8-1-2 in Feb 2012, and this beautiful split flow pattern developed out west in the midst of an otherwise awful winter. But it led to a pattern that produced a light snow (1-5 inches) across parts of northern NC. It’s a good example though of the MJO improving the pattern on the Pacific side

IMG_4612.jpeg
 
griteater said:
It’s good. We certainly struggle these days to get the MJO to make a good pass thru 7-8-1-2

But it makes me think of a winter which had one of the all-time most terrible-est patterns, the winter of 2011-2012. The MJO made a good pass thru 7-8-1-2 in Feb 2012, and this beautiful split flow pattern developed out west in the midst of an otherwise awful winter. But it led to a pattern that produced a light snow (1-5 inches) across parts of northern NC. It’s a good example though of the MJO improving the pattern on the Pacific side

View attachment 184847
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2011-2012 has to be the worst winter I’ve experienced here in NE TN. 2022-2023 is a close second.
 
trackersacker said:
Hey @griteater, seems like there’s mixed views on what MJO phase 1 and 2 brings in February, particularly given the state of ENSO. Any thoughts on that?
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Yeah, you see varying opinions on the MJO pattern influence, but looking at these Paul Roundy MJO plots (link below), phases 1 and 2 are fine in late winter / better than they are in early winter (December).

Paul Roundy MJO


The PAC Jet is going to extend soon and likely gives us the nice looking +PNA pattern late Jan. Going into early Feb, we may lose our cold TPV in eastern Canada for a bit, and the modeling wants to go a bit zonal flow across the conus with the fully extended Pac Jet and big gulf of Alaska low. But that may be brief. You can already see the Euro AI Ens trending a bit weaker towards the end of its run with the Pac Jet extension. So with the Pac Jet backing off a bit, and combining that with Webb’s eastward moving West Pac warm pool & MJO in favorable 8-1-2, the Euro Wk progression of maintaining or going back into -EPO / +PNA makes sense in early to mid Feb. And I don’t see hostility with Asia / EAMT. Those are some thoughts. We’ll see how it goes. Always tough to project
 
0z euro ai ensemble is loaded, this is only out to hour 180. Thinking we may be cooking earlier in the period.
1362ae19d9bfe083c7362be36f26fbc0.jpg



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