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Pattern January Joke

NBAcentel said:
I’d say the only problem I have with this run is the front of the trough not being as sharp and a slightly more + tilt, but should be outweighed by the base being slowed
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Regardless of how sharp the base gets, more and more it seems the chances of a wsw overrunning event increases with each run.
 
Sometime within the next 24-36 hours, we are going to see a neutral tilt in LA/MS and it’s going to blow the top off as it goes negative further east….we have seen this too many times in the past 40 years. Normally, we see this type of evolution/trend START in AL/GA and end up going negative way further west (200 hour snowstorm turns into 70’s and SVR). In this scenario, we started with the base of the trough extremely far east….and now that trend is highly favoring much of the board. Good times!
 
Mahomeless said:
No…this will continue to trend north and west…it is the absolute perfect setup for snow in central/north AL, through northern GA, eastern TN, and western Carolinas.

Remember….bullseye this early is not a good thing…keep enjoying the trends, they aren’t done by a long shot!
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I hope everyone gets something out of this storm but that’s just me manifesting


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GaWx said:
I vote for a thread ASAP. The 1/28-9/14 storm thread was started six days out (1/22) by me (before SouthernWx existed):

1/28-2/1: Multiple winter storm threats per models

Folks,I couldn't wait any more to start this thread. The ducks are on the pond bigtime. The projected pattern is screaming one or two major winter threats. There have been multiple Euro/GFS runs over the last week or so showing on and off one or two storms from Miller A's/B's producing major S, I...
www.americanwx.com www.americanwx.com
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Ok thanks for another link back to amwx. Hope you link this site there as much!
 
Yeah it’s a delicate balance. If you dig the energy too much at the base it kinda gets stuck behind and you run the risk of not getting the right tilt. Think we’re in a good spot. Small changes in the tilt would be a big changes precip. It’s right there.

Honestly probably good we got a dose of reality after the GFS

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Almost a double member increase on the 12z gefs vs 06z gefs for bhm. Enesmbles haven’t been very impressive at all so far and this is a huge jump. EPS also hasn’t looked great, so I hope to see it double up at 12z. I will post them when available.

BHM and MGM below for Alabama folks.
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