You’re gonna want to keep some modeling east at this lead. That shows there’s middle ground between the cutter and whiff. A sweet spot if you will. We can’t afford to immediately lose everything to the NW with 5 days to go.
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Pattern January Joke
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Y'all please keep banter in banter thread. It's exciting and been a long time to see a potential like this, but this thread needs to be for discussion. It's been requested by all mods ad nauseam.
NBAcentel
Member
GEFS looking rather amped up and furious this run. Probably gonna get some 2+ means going this run 
Mahomeless was not off his rocker completely. Treading a fine line here. WAY too much time to go here.
Folks who like pretty snow maps will enjoy this GEFS run
broken025
Member
packfan98
Moderator
looks to have a similar footprint as the op so far.
Don't think we're done trending west. The upstream pattern over the Pacific keeps ticking back.
Oconeexman
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Yep if we get the euro to continue that same trend the UKIE is this winters King imo....that model some ignore...lol
GeorgiaGirl
Member
I would actually say pretty much every ensemble tries in this suite. Only 2 of them are total whiffs.
Some are just confined to the coast, which with the jump NW, is good to see.
Some are just confined to the coast, which with the jump NW, is good to see.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
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Tiny little 2 inch pop
Edit: thought the run finished. Look at Fro's below me
NBAcentel
Member
Ukmet out through 39 is carbon copy of its 0Z run from last night so far
I dusted off the Atari maps just for you @Rain Cold
Might be the only time I get to use them this year
Might be the only time I get to use them this year
NBAcentel
Member
Pretty classic evolution of overrunning with a initial finger band further west to a coastal storm 
The UKie has been leading the way showing a potential storm this coming weekend. Fingers are crossed that things remain steady and don't take that big jump northwest.
Ensembles orientation is totally different than the op. Worlds apart. What do you make of that?
UKMet
Like I said in an earlier post from 06z Eps there's some St Bernard's & Great Dane's in there if you sift through the noise!
This has great potential for those of us in the I-40 to I-85 and down to I-20 crowd!
It's abroad hit for the board!
ducketta27
Member
Looking like an upstate storm after all… Us CSRA and central SC folks will have to wait another few years for “our time”
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NWG_WX14
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UKMET came back east a little bit at the surface
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I think if I'm west of 77(especially focusing on CLT), I might be a little concerned with timing, ground temps and firing off at roughly 38/29
super wound up storm like on the op will gain latitude quicker and be more N/S; ensembles likely have flatter solutions that tilts snow corridor more zonally
The Ukmet surface lines up with Icon and Canadian at 12z: Not GFS like
packfan98
Moderator
All rain? Looks similar to the GFS AI. I guess we have our goal posts for now.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Not quite as amped like the 00z run was, it would be a better scenario for the eastern board folks.
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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
UK doesn’t match its own 500mb
i really don't mind this evolution at all, small step back from 00z but feels like noise, not a warning shot
Really want to see some more Euro support here in a bit. Would be insane for Florida to get snow in back-to-back years. I'm not sure if it's ever happened in recorded history, will have to check
If the GFS holds up, there will be snow in New Orleans. We are leaving out of Port Orleans on a cruise Sunday. That will be awesome to go from snow to tropical weather.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
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The takeaway for now is the GFS OP is too aggressive compared to current ensemble data.
yeah well, when you are him, with a reputation, you have to think that what he says can affect all the local business and government functions. it can cost people a lot of money if things shut down and nothing happens, so why add to the chaos, let the nws deal with it
bncho
Member
The GFS is ALMOST a tucked bomb verbatim. 994 low off of the outer banks. This thing will keep trending west too.
WolfpackHomer91
Member
Id like to see more Tilt still to get the fire hose unkinked in the Gulf. I wanna start seeing some .5-.75” QPF numbers soon then .75-1.25” by game time if not this will be some loser 1-3” event like the rest…. Risk the amping and take the QPF every time.
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Snowflowxxl
Member
UK is perfectly fine for 5 days out.
Tsappfrog20
Member
If you offered me 3” right now and calls it quits I would gladly accept that offer
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