NBAcentel
Member
I’d say the only problem I have with this run is the front of the trough not being as sharp and a slightly more + tilt, but should be outweighed by the base being slowed
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Pattern January Joke
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
NCSNOW
Member
Carbon copy of its 0z run at hour 66 on the surface. snow breaking out SW NC and actually colder/ lower thickness further south verse 12z gfs at this time
Everything backing up. 
NBAcentel
Member
This is one of the wilder trends in a while 
Regardless of how sharp the base gets, more and more it seems the chances of a wsw overrunning event increases with each run.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
In terms of positioning its close to the GFS but much weaker
Slow it down normally = amplify
packfan98
Moderator
Coastal scraper. East of 6z
GFS amp happy again it seems.
i'll take that from the most reliable piece of guidance we have
new euro
SegTindo
Member
Nothings set in stone just yet remember anything can happen and or change so keep an eye out
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Mahomeless
Member
Sometime within the next 24-36 hours, we are going to see a neutral tilt in LA/MS and it’s going to blow the top off as it goes negative further east….we have seen this too many times in the past 40 years. Normally, we see this type of evolution/trend START in AL/GA and end up going negative way further west (200 hour snowstorm turns into 70’s and SVR). In this scenario, we started with the base of the trough extremely far east….and now that trend is highly favoring much of the board. Good times!
NCSNOW
Member
Gotta get some more tilt to the left on ukmet and euro. Just a notch, maybe 2 degrees more neutral, will tell the tale.
SegTindo
Member
I hope everyone gets something out of this storm but that’s just me manifesting
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good reminder that west trend with trough isn't just a winter storm go brrrr machine. do think that you run the risk of a pos tilt slop mess. saw a lot of that last year
No way dude. Going to be a 93 clone
We're going to get NAMed at 18Z. They don't call it Happy Hour for nothing.
rburrel2
Member
700mb humidity shield looked great on the euro. It’s real close to going boom.
WolfpackHomer91
Member
Tell as old as Time…. The GFS being by itself
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Ok thanks for another link back to amwx. Hope you link this site there as much!I vote for a thread ASAP. The 1/28-9/14 storm thread was started six days out (1/22) by me (before SouthernWx existed):
1/28-2/1: Multiple winter storm threats per models
Folks,I couldn't wait any more to start this thread. The ducks are on the pond bigtime. The projected pattern is screaming one or two major winter threats. There have been multiple Euro/GFS runs over the last week or so showing on and off one or two storms from Miller A's/B's producing major S, I...www.americanwx.com
No but I do think the precipitation field will expand closer to go time. Especially in setups like this.
I mean it really wasn't that worse if any at all. The axis changed. I love the look. 
Yeah it’s a delicate balance. If you dig the energy too much at the base it kinda gets stuck behind and you run the risk of not getting the right tilt. Think we’re in a good spot. Small changes in the tilt would be a big changes precip. It’s right there.
Honestly probably good we got a dose of reality after the GFS
Honestly probably good we got a dose of reality after the GFS
Euro being probably the most SE model right now isn't super surprising. That said we need to see at least some incremental shifts west with the op or eps if not it might be right
Nope we are trying to figure out who the least likely to jinx this system is on staff, thread will be posted soonYou’re welcome.I guess the 12Z Euro means no thread yet.
Make @Rain Cold do it and name it “Cant Miss Even If You Tried Coastal Snowstorm 2026”
That should do it for the board
Almost a double member increase on the 12z gefs vs 06z gefs for bhm. Enesmbles haven’t been very impressive at all so far and this is a huge jump. EPS also hasn’t looked great, so I hope to see it double up at 12z. I will post them when available.
BHM and MGM below for Alabama folks.
BHM and MGM below for Alabama folks.