The 500mb pressure surface. Almost all of the vorticity and height anomaly maps you see posted on here are at 500mb. An important tool to make inferences about what the surface wx may be like, and a common place used to assess model verification.
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Pattern January Joke
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accu35
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Was it heading in the right direction?
The AIGFS may not have printed out precip, but this upper air look is not terribly at odds with the 12Z GFS and 00 EMCF, imo.
It had precip. So I’d book it as a win since the fear is dry
UKMet with another hit
Forevertothee
Member
True but the fetch off the Atlantic is also shift back West substantially.
I think I like, no love, where this is headed.
Okay now I'm starting to get a bit more intrigued. Euro should be interesting.
UKMet Snow
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
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Canadian decides to drop the entire PV into Ohio. Probably not the best look unless you can drop it into Missouri and allow it to spin up a low in the Mid-South.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Need more of these runs, nice digging shortwave with enough cold air.
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accu35
Member
Does the UK count for snow and ice on there maps or just snow?
UKMET soundings under the Pivotal 
'rain' on the northern GA/AL border.![soundings-[33.42,-85.71]-ukmo_global-prateptype_ukmo-imp-conus-2026011212-144.png](https://southernwx.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com/data/attachments/182/182711-dde36681c19743b7c8ac5553dda5f4c7.jpg "soundings-[33.42,-85.71]-ukmo_global-prateptype_ukmo-imp-conus-2026011212-144.png")
'rain' on the northern GA/AL border.
That's two good runs in a row for the UKMet. I hope some of the other models can jump on the bandwagon, especially the Euro.
Stormlover
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CNCsnwfan1210
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GEFS trying to show some rays of hope for the south
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In the past I’ve found Pivotal has had problems with ZR/IP vs SN on UKMET clowns, but I don’t think there’s much, if any, IP/ZR with this setup (no CAD).
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The soundings are odd on Pivotal for the UKMET. Here is mine. 37 degrees and "snow"? The upper layers are plenty cold enough, will it all melt passing through the last 800 ft? I think it has to do with rates and dryness of the lower layers. I had a very similar setup last year and it snowed like crazy. I've also seen this sounding and had cold rain. Nothing will be sorted out until later this week.UKMET soundings under the Pivotal
packfan98
Moderator
Does anyone have a Pivotal subscription and can post the Kuchera map for the UKMET? I would think the ratios would be higher on the cold side of the storm. Thanks in advance!
Canadian ain't playing around.
Yeah, verbatim, you would need better rates to cool the surface. Most of our area will too. Famous last words, but temps will be fine provided rates are there.
NCHighCountryWX
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WPC Official Guidance Update as of 1036am Update
Primary change is higher probabilities in Western NC Mountains
Primary change is higher probabilities in Western NC Mountains
Tsappfrog20
Member
Here we go let’s see what the along has to say!!
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Stormlover
Member
Canadian model temps Monday morning 
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Need to see if the Euro drops that shortwave through the Dakotas and slides along the base of the longwave trough, that was nice track imo.
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ok
Add about 10 degrees and that will be close to what it will be. Plus we don’t need that cold. That will kill our snow chances.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
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The shortwave in Alabama looks a tad better at this point. But that damn northern lobe just continues to suck
More seperation
alright, welcome back. dry, but at least it is something workable vs dumpster fire 6z
Yeh after it going the wrong way for so long, it's good to see it coming back the other direction now.
JP152
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Looks pretty good for East Tennessee and Southern Virginia too.
Going to have to work hard. We're in no man's land right now on the Euro.
NCHighCountryWX
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BAMWX 10 Day for Banner Elk
packfan98
Moderator
What do we need to happen with the first system to get a bigger system? I need to know what to root for!
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
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Of course the PV is really trending closer and stronger in southeast Canada. Not sure how that helps for first or second system.