It would be a mistake to over-rely on one forecast parameter to compile a longer term prediction. This year, the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Sudden Stratospheric Warming measures have constantly been used to the point of excess, with poor results. The MJO is poorly predicted by the standard baroclinic weather models, while SSW depictions are usually wrong and wildly misinterpreted. I have noticed that tropical forcing outlooks pop up often, and almost always tied to the Wheeler Diagram plots using some of the schemes like the ECMWF and GFS. The oscillation is best portrayed by viewing on satellite imagery and not wind anomaly plots, which undergo alterations usually every 12 hours or so. The favored phases for winter weather in much of the lower 48 states is Phases 6, 7,8, and sometimes 1. This is provided that the convective forcing is strong and attached to both the polar westerlies and subtropical jet stream. If, as is currently the case, the impulse body is weaker and most noticeable below the Equator, cold intrusions will be transient with about 2 or 3 days of impact. The 10MB events will channel results to the baroclinic zone in two to four weeks after occurrence, usually a reflection in 500MB features with respect to ridges, blocking signatures, and closed lows and vortices. Use of other indices is unwise; those are meant for "after the fact" evaluation, and it makes much more sense to evaluate items like the NAO and WPO after all is said and done. In climatology and classification. Not as a dodge to having to plot items like 500MB ridges and trough, mountain torque, vorticity maxima, and complex frontal structures that can actually tell you how the weather will turn out in your specific community.
All of those ideas aside, we need to piece together how the last ten days of January will turn out. The deep but transient trough coming through North America this week, along with the storm complex off of Baja California, are probably the most likely indicators for apparent weather in the lower 48 states. There is a wide scope of snow and ice from the northern tier of the USA across the North Pole and covering a wide area of Eurasia. Set-ups like these usually breed one or two massive Arctic intrusions east of the Rocky Mountains, and an all-encompassing cold wave below the Canadian Border cannot be ruled out. If the Madden-Julian Oscillation resumes a hook-up with the southern branch, it is almost inevitable that a very large scale storm will track along the southern and eastern rims of the USA. Using the numerical models (flawed of course, but we have many more schemes to look at these days), many seem to have a warm West vs. cold East alignment, with Manitoba and Ontario being the source region for cold and energy. I like the idea of a cAk vortex setting up near James Bay, which almost always creates deep freeze events. The La Nina episode is still moderate. But all of the guidance so far says a steady climb in SST values will bring the ENSO signature into a neutral stance next month, with a slow ascent of the subtropical jet stream, which can only mean more precipitation, with storms targeting a Texas to Georgia to NC Outer Banks path.
But first, some doses of mild air to deal with in the central and southern parts of the U.S. Then the winter reminders will return!
Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on
Sunday, January 11, 2026 at 3:10 P.M. CT
