That's about how 96 rolled best sleet event of my life
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Pattern January Joke
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
NBAcentel
Member
These random OP runs with extremely cold air isn’t to far fetched to me though, I mean look how much red is in the Arctic… lotta bathtub sloshing going on there. Just don’t know if we sync up moisture (doubtful) 
I didn’t zoom in but should have known where you are. We have fescue looking good even in the cold here. Just fertilized last week. Needs a blanket of snow!!
Can't hate this to be honest. Suppression isn't a concern but shearing of vorticity or over amping may be
Xlhunter3
Member
Like how the GEFS is spiking the PNA over the past few runs. Shifting west too. 
Gfs op #1 puts a good lick on SE VA and NE NC.
#2 one frame of snow shower in northern NC east of Apps.
Mtns rack up both still.
#2 one frame of snow shower in northern NC east of Apps.
Mtns rack up both still.
Xlhunter3
Member
By MLK day, we will have another opportunity in front us regardless of these next two timeframes working out or not. Just my take.
Hard to imagine with as much energy as what we’re seeing, that we don’t at least see some convective snow showers for a lot of us on Thursday.
Yeah that’s a 1063 parent high just south of Alaska. Connected. This is how you wedge 
Big wave break off the coast of Newfoundland jamming the flow. Mega high pressure backed up against it. This could work. This is the one 
What ingredient will we be missing then I wonder.
Corn casserole.
HailCore
Member
My guess is that as soon as short range models get a handle on this system, there will be. Not necessarily crazy convection, but a few flurries and snow showers will certainly form at the minimum across much of the region where enough moisture and cloud cover exist.
Flow jam + mega high + muted northern stream and you’ve got just about everything you need to see a winter storm. This is the run you can get when you quickly move from a low pressure dominant pattern to a high pressure dominant one. Good things can happen when MSLP looks like this 
wow
Member
That's the one. It's mine. I'm calling it.
That's a classic.
rburrel2
Member
Man… all of a sudden the gfs and gfs ai both have monster biblical cold cad storms at the same time around 282hrs out. Absolute perfect wide goal post set up. If we can get that large scale look inside day 10 we’re set.
rburrel2
Member
FYI, not writing off system 2 yet. This is the range where they like to dry out… only to come back to life later on. We have the cold, just need our qpf back.
And the cold after that is very impressive. The day after this, highs in the NC Piedmont are 15-20 and lows that night 0-5. No one gets above freezing for about 84 hours
HailCore
Member
Man I wish… but this winter has had too many of these threats showing up close to 300 hours out and disappearing. Heck, this storm threat for the MLK timeframe is inside 200 hours and now it may or may not happen. Maybe we can work one of these with the more favorable pattern shift though…
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
Euro coming in now, not great initially
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
EURO system #1 is a fropa.
At the rate system #2 aka, the kicker is closing the gap, anymore of this and they'll be one, lol.
At the rate system #2 aka, the kicker is closing the gap, anymore of this and they'll be one, lol.
Hot dog water. 
NBAcentel
Member
Anomalously strong western ridge (record breaking in certain parts) and we still can’t pull a cutoff low or load a trough base into the SE
You know, if the first system doesn't scour everything, it may help system number 2 do something.
trackersacker
Member
What sucks about this too is I feel like the kicker is just absorbing this thing and not allowing it to phase properly and the kicker isn’t even doing anything special
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Well, 280 hours...... Not 300+ That's a little better.
trackersacker
Member
Ok I’m gonna try and make myself feel better right now and acknowledge that the end of that Euro run did look more interesting with trying to get some energy going to our southwest
System #2 isn't that far off from at least a light overrunning event for the deep south. Yes, I don't know when to quit!
NCHighCountryWX
Member
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I swear. Bury me in Banner Elk. Or scatter my ashes
Cad Wedge NC
Member
This hobby is not for the faint of heart. Don't worry about it.... most of us are in the same boat. We will hold on until the bitter end before we will let a threat go. One thing we have learned over the years is that things change quickly. Sometimes for the better and sometimes not. The challenge is to keep a level head.
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
Don't we all love these types of systems that feel like it's one 50-100 mile SW shift to being an all out southern winter storm.
Instead we're likely to get stuck with Toronto, Canada stealing our chance.
Instead we're likely to get stuck with Toronto, Canada stealing our chance.