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Pattern January Joke

NBAcentel said:
When I heard the CMC wasn’t great I thought it sucked or was ridgy, this is rather close to something right here alone…. View attachment 180272
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Yeah that was going to drop the hammer on someone if it kept going a few frames further. Absolute bowling ball

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NBAcentel said:
When I heard the CMC wasn’t great I thought it sucked or was ridgy, this is rather close to something right here alone…. View attachment 180272
Click to expand...
But it's only 10÷ days away..there should be 4 clown maps a day...right?
It's a def pattern change and likely still not nailed down but it sure is looking like the best 2 week period to score. Would love for it to roll on into February this way.
 
NBAcentel said:
When I heard the CMC wasn’t great I thought it sucked or was ridgy, this is rather close to something right here alone…. View attachment 180272
Click to expand...
Looks like the CMC is cutting here and too warm, but would likely wind up and build ridging into the block for a suppressed height field behind it. Just another option of many as we look way too far in the future which we are kind of “required” to do around here because of our climatology lol

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jrips27 said:
Just realized it’s the 1 year anniversary of this absolute insane weenie Euro run btw. Hopefully we get a few of these over the coming weeks

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jrips27 said:
Just realized it’s the 1 year anniversary of this absolute insane weenie Euro run btw. Hopefully we get a few of these over the coming weeks

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Yea, and here's reality for 1/10/2025, Memphis received about 8" with this storm.
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Euro weekly 7-day average precipitation anomaly forecast for Jan 11-18 vs the correlation between the CPC’s EPO index & OLRa.

Notice the equatorial Rossby Wave ~150-160 degrees east in the Equatorial Pacific in both images, where two anomalous centers of convective heating straddle the equator. That’s usually how you get -EPOs in winter

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Slight concern for me as of now is just some ticks in model guidance at the very end for cold to dump out West. Now I am really only going off individual runs but even the Euro dropped it West at the very end. The GFS looked rough. But this does follow what the Euro weeklies switched to yesterday afternoon around the mid month timeframe. Surprised no one posted it. It shows a lot of cold air dropping down mid to late month, the big question is where. Hopefully we don't have any trends developing to that in ensemble guidance.
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AI GFS was close on 1/12


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Much talk about the long-range pattern, and for good reason, but it also allows us to skip over what may happen between now and then. Just wrapped up my forecast this morning and boy, let's go ahead and skip over what may happen! Quiet quiet quiet locally after today's cold front brings a fun little wx geek day.

The only story I can really find prior to our wintry pattern chasing after the New Year is this sfc low giving some rain Friday into Saturday. I'll take what we can get, it has been a sneaky dry run as of late

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Figured we could use the break from EPOs and NAOs and maybes and progressions and hopes for a post ;) or maybe none of you care. in that case, here is the D10 EC-AIFS, which tries to reward @RBR71 for existing, but sfc temps are not there. i am waiting on the fantasy run just like the rest of y'all

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jackendrickwx said:
Much talk about the long-range pattern, and for good reason, but it also allows us to skip over what may happen between now and then. Just wrapped up my forecast this morning and boy, let's go ahead and skip over what may happen! Quiet quiet quiet locally after today's cold front brings a fun little wx geek day.

The only story I can really find prior to our wintry pattern chasing after the New Year is this sfc low giving some rain Friday into Saturday. I'll take what we can get, it has been a sneaky dry run as of late

View attachment 180311

View attachment 180310

View attachment 180312

Figured we could use the break from EPOs and NAOs and maybes and progressions and hopes for a post ;) or maybe none of you care. in that case, here is the D10 EC-AIFS, which tries to reward @RBR71 for existing, but sfc temps are not there. i am waiting on the fantasy run just like the rest of y'all

View attachment 180313
Click to expand...
We do need rain man. It's wild how inconsistent it's been with it.
 
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A 21 inch member on last nights EPS, 😂

Really do hope we continue to see some good looks today and this week on the models. We want it here at home but the snow chase is ready to engage to the smokies if necessary. Anybody else struggling to be productive this week with another holiday at the middle to end of the week?
 
jackendrickwx said:
Much talk about the long-range pattern, and for good reason, but it also allows us to skip over what may happen between now and then. Just wrapped up my forecast this morning and boy, let's go ahead and skip over what may happen! Quiet quiet quiet locally after today's cold front brings a fun little wx geek day.

The only story I can really find prior to our wintry pattern chasing after the New Year is this sfc low giving some rain Friday into Saturday. I'll take what we can get, it has been a sneaky dry run as of late

View attachment 180311

View attachment 180310

View attachment 180312

Figured we could use the break from EPOs and NAOs and maybes and progressions and hopes for a post ;) or maybe none of you care. in that case, here is the D10 EC-AIFS, which tries to reward @RBR71 for existing, but sfc temps are not there. i am waiting on the fantasy run just like the rest of y'all

View attachment 180313
Click to expand...
You disappointed me again this morning with my forecast you sent out... Flipping rain chance Friday night :confused: lol
Temp has been rising overnight, 43 when I went to bed. Currently 49, but the front is knocking on our door. Looks like we may play who can kick the can the furthest in January... #wintersuxanymore
 
These models are all over the place, almost every run different. Anytime we have a pattern change, the models are smoking weed until the last minute because they are just not capable of the fine details beyond 3-4 days. Ensembles are SOME better but not by a ton. The recipe for a winter storm in the SE is getting the recipe right, however we have to get the mixing just right. That will depend on two facts largely IMO, a healthy
-NAO to remain in place and the PNA to turn positive
 
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